Thursday, January 21st Recap

 

OMG vs RNG (Net: +2.0 units)

I mentioned it in yesterday’s post but I figured we’d see some lane swapping shenanigans with the four mid laners in the solo lanes for this matchup and that scared me off of playing the unders in the alternate markets. Heads up look there. This more or less played out how I thought it might. I’ve said it before but RNG are just going to beat these below average teams with better macro seemingly no matter how rough a start that get. That’s how game one went. Game two was a more even start and it wasn’t particularly close. They won’t be able to get away with this sort of thing against better teams but against the bottom of the table it’s a pretty safe bet that RNG can “Suning” their way out of a lot of these games.

OMG continue to show promising signs but Wuming continues to be a liability. AKi and the bottom lane are doing their job. New was doing his job, albeit not in this series. Against great solo lane talents it’s just not going to be enough. He’s probably better than whoever they’re sitting on in academy but it might be time to try something different here. We saw a whole season of Wuming last year on Rogue Warriors and he was one of the worst mids in the league then too.

TT Gaming vs Team WE (Net: +0.92 units)

TT showed some pep in their step in game one and jumped out to an early lead picking up the first two dragons, first blood, and herald with a decent scaling composition but WE ground them to a pulp from an economy standpoint. Even with the “fast” start, TT didn’t get enough done with it and never really had a meaningful gold lead. WE’s individual player quality really just ended up winning them this series.

This was a weird off series from SamD but he was just trying to make some plays in most of these situations knowing that they were being choked out. TT look like a slightly more talented Dominus and that’s not boding well for their outlook this season. That said they’ve faced a difficult schedule thus far (WE, LNG on fire, RNG). There’s a chance they look passable against the middle and bottom of the table teams.

T1 vs Gen.G (Net: +0.22 units)

This was about as high level a series as you’re going to get in January. Tremendous match!

Gen.G got the better of this one, primarily because of a ridiculous game three performance from life on the support Jarvan. There’s not really a lot to talk about in terms of criticisms for T1, when you have these elite teams against each other even minor errors can cost you a game. I just wanted to take a minute to dispel some of the obvious narrative that’s going to come out of this. Faker has now lost two series. Anybody spouting this “they would have won with Clozer in” nonsense simply isn’t watching the matches or they’re memeing. He played against a losing matchup in all three games and still created plenty of opportunities in this match. He’s also played against the other two elite teams in Gen.G and DAMWON. Check the narrative at the door. If you’re going to criticize a player in this series it was Canna, particularly in game two, but I’m not going to go there.

DAMWON Kia vs Fredit Brion (Net: -2.28 units)

Brion straight up outplayed DAMWON in this series. I don’t think this was “disrespect” or anything like that. An off day for DAMWON? Sure, to some extent. Brion had better drafts in both games and DAMWON missed opportunities to punish which almost never happens. They paid for it.

In game one it was a little weird to me that Lava didn’t take cleanse against the Twisted Fate + Olaf combo and DAMWON didn’t really take advantage of that at all. That was kind of the story of this series. Brion played a fairly clean, albeit not perfect, series and DAMWON for the first time in a long time, just didn’t find the few windows to attack that Brion left open.

I don’t want to make excuses or anything and this might sound a bit “narrative-y” but DAMWON were going to lose a series at some point to a non-elite team. They didn’t drop a single game the entire Summer to a non-Gen.G or DragonX team. Hell, they only dropped three games at the World Championships (one each to Suning, G2, and JDG). The point I’m trying to make is that nobody is invincible and we shouldn’t panic about this team based on this loss. If anything it’s better for them to get this out of the way early. Remember what it feels like to lose. These guys haven’t had an extended offseason in over two years. They’ve made playoffs every season, Worlds back-to-back years, brought in a new player, and even mid-season tournaments. They haven’t had more than a few weeks off. At some point that sets in and you’re going to have an off day or off week. Even still, it wasn’t like DAMWON were horrible in this series, they just didn’t have their A game and Brion played very well. Don’t over think this one.

 

LPL Net Total: +2.92 units

LCK Net Total: -2.06 units

 

Daily Net Total: +0.86 units

 

Sort of a bummer DAMWON couldn’t turn that around after game one but at least we still ended up green on the day.

 

A quick note. I’ll be paying more attention to the minor/emerging region leagues again this year like I have in years other than last year but I won’t be writing on them frequently. If there are plays I like I’ll mention them at the bottom of these posts. I had a few people ask me about this so I figured I’d just answer here.

 


LOL Pro League (China)

Week 3 – Day 5

 

RareAtom -233 (-1.5 maps @ +152, +1.5 @ -769)

vs

BiliBili Gaming +178 (+1.5 maps @ -196, -1.5 @ +474)

 

Total Maps Played: 2.5 (over +100 / under -127)

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -114 / under -114)

Kill Spread:  -5.5 @ -118 / +5.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -135  / under +104)

Starting Lineups:

RA – Cube, Leyan, FoFo, iBoy, Hang

BLG – Biubiu, Meteor, Zeka, Aiming, Mark

The return of one of the most underrated players in the LPL, Leyan. For those that haven’t heard my deal with Leyan and Vici I’ll to the short, short, player version. Leyan graded out as the LPL’s #3 jungler behind only SofM and Wei, slightly ahead of Meteor and Weiwei. He was #2 in gold differential at 15 minutes, #2 in wards cleared per minute, #6 in vision score per minute, #3 in gold per minute,  #3 in damage per gold per minute, and #1 by a mile in experience differential at 15 minutes (and CS diff but I don’t factor that in). And he did all of this with a losing record.

Vici were a really good team that simply couldn’t close games out. People couldn’t stand the jungle flip flop but Aix won a lot of the games he played in an had numbers toward the bottom of the table in relation to other junglers. Leyan was absolutely killing it and just happened to lose in the games he played. There wasn’t another situation in the LPL quite like this. Was it something he was doing that Leyan wasn’t? No, he just had the easier schedule and benefitted from some spike performances. In other words, Aix’s win percentage was more luck/variance. Leyan was delivering the goods against superior competition. Don’t underrate this guy.

I’ve been a RareAtom bull all offseason but I actually think BiliBili are the ones being slightly undervalued in this spot. These are two teams with similar style and personnel quality. Meteor is also in that upper echelon of LPL junglers. Cube was tremendous in his last outing against Suning while Biubiu has really struggled so far but I figure there might be a little rust with RA as well to counteract that.

I’m staying away from a side in this one. I do think BLG are being undervalued but there’s enough of a case to be made that Leyan could just offer an immediate boost over Aix that I’m going to respect that against what I said on The Gold Card Podcast last night.

Other Markets:

I love the time and kill total unders here.

There’s a chance this is two tempo teams butting heads and it gets bloody and then stalls out but I think the more likely course of events is that one of these teams snowballs the game hard and just steamrolls.

t 26.5 is slightly higher than the post-adjustment 25.5’s we’ve been seeing for most matches after unders have reigned in the early season. Kill totals have gone under in 57.15% of LPL games this season with an average total of 26.77 kills.

Time totals have gone under the same percentage of games, 57.15% with an average time of 32.0 minutes.

 

My Picks:

 

Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 26.5 @ -115 (1.15 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 26.5 @ -115 (1.15 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 UNDER 26.5 @ -112 (1.12 units)

Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 32:00 @ +104 (1 unit)

Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 32:00 @ +102 (1 unit)

Time Total: Map 3 UNDER 32:00 @ +102 (1 unit)


 

EDward Gaming +115 (+1.5 maps @ -270, -1.5 @ +339)

vs

JD Gaming -147 (-1.5 maps @ +204, +1.5 @ -500)

 

Total Maps Played: 2.5 (over -106/ under -120)

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -115 / under -114)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -116 / -4.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -135 / under +104)

Starting Lineups:

EDG – Flandre, Jiejie, Scout, Viper, Meiko

JDG – Zoom, Kanavi, Yagao, LokeN, LvMao

Notably this is the second match with Yago back for the full World Championship lineup.

There’s a reasonable case to be made that this is just about as cheap as you’re ever going to get JDG but I’m going to be on EDG here. I have these two teams more or less equal, slight edge to JDG. Both were in my S Tier in my Pre-Season Outlook and I see no reason to change that so far.

These teams split their 2020 series one match each (3-2 JDG in game score). JunJia played it for EDG during Spring due to the pandemic/visa issues. Jiejie was in for Summer. I think the matchup most people point to as the biggest mismatch would be the mid jungle duo of JDG over EDG’s. In their five meetings during 2020 the counterpick won every single matchup. Scout had counter in three of them and he and his jungler got the better of Yagao and Kanavi in those situations although they still lost one of those games. Yagao and Kanavi got the better when they had the mid counterpick. It’s a bit narrative-y but Yagao and Scout seem to always play each other close no matter their teams or junglers over the past few years.

Viper has seemingly had no issues making the transition to the LPL and, along with Meiko, have been dominant in the bottom lane thus far this season. So far it looks like the new crop of Koreans to move over to the LPL have all been a success but time will tell.

You could point to an easier schedule as EDG have faced OMG and LGD already while JDG’s “easy” matchup was BiliBili. Both have one hard match, EDG vs FPX and JDG vs Invictus. This early I try not to put too much weight on strength of schedule.

I know this writeup was a little scatterbrained and all over the place but to summarize it all, this is a significantly upgraded EDG team that’s playing really well and confidently, sometimes overconfidently, at the moment and they’ve been able to beat this JDG lineup with an inferior lineup to this one. Flandre is one of the few top laners that can measure up to Zoom, Jiejie has been sneaky good but I’ll give the edge to Kanavi, mid is a wash, and bottom lane I’d give the edge to EDG right now. All-told: two evenly rated teams, take the plus money unless you’ve got a good reason not to. I can definitely see the bull case for JDG but I’ll be on the other side.

Other Markets:

Plus money time total unders on a decent number? Yes please!

That under clip has been slightly lower when it’s two good teams squaring off but it’s still worth a position to me.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: EDG +115 (1 unit)

Map Spread: EDG -1.5 maps @ +339 (0.5 units)

Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 33:00 @ +104 (1 unit)

Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 33:00 @ -101 (1.01 unit)

Time Total: Map 3 UNDER 33:00 @ -101 (1.01 unit)

 


LOL Champions Korea

Week 2 – Day 3

 

KT Rolster +169 (+1.5 maps @ -192, -1.5 @ +437)

vs

Hanwha Life Esports -208 (-1.5 maps @ +150, +1.5 @ -714)

 

Total Maps Played: 2.5 (over +109 / under -139)

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -110 / under -119)

Kill Spread:  +5.5 @ -122 / -5.5 @ -108

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +113  / under -147)

After getting absolutely smoked by Gen.G, KT Rolster looked much better against Sandbox albeit not perfect by any means. Hanwha have had a tumultuous start struggling at times against DRX but also taking a game off of T1.

I’m really not sure what’s going on with this line movement. When we recorded The Gold Card Podcast last night this was priced at +136 / -164. There’s usually some adjustment per day closer to game day but this is a pretty large move with money coming in on Hanwha. I was going to pass this match as the original line looked pretty fair to me but I’m going to take some KT Rolster at this number.

I’m not entirely buying Hanwha Life. Jungle, support, and to a lesser extent top lane have all been liabilities for this Hanwha team and it’s starting to look a little bit like The “Can Chovy and Deft carry a bunch of scrubs?” Show which is going to make them very inconsistent until they prove otherwise. KT Rolster have enough talent, top-to-bottom, to take this series. I’d actually give them an edge in top and jungle and I think the bottom lane might be closer to evenly matched than people want to admit given Vsta’s struggles so far.

Other Markets:

Time totals have gone under in 60% of LCK games this season and favorites have failed to cover their kill spread in 62.86% of games. KT have also gone over their team total in every game so far this season. If I wasn’t already on KT Rolster’s side in this matchup I’d look to Hanwha’s team total under 14.5 or KT over 10.5. Hanwha have been sloppy. I’ll just be sticking to KT sides. Time total is appropriately priced in this spot.

 

My Picks:

 

Spread: KT Rolster +1.5 maps @ -204 (2.04 units)

Moneyline: KT Rolster +164 (0.5 units)

Spread: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ +416 (0.25 units)

 


DRX -111 (-1.5 maps @ +238, +1.5 @ -385)

vs

Liiv Sandbox -108 (+1.5 maps @ -323, -1.5 @ +280)

 

Total Maps Played: 2.5 (over -106 / under -119)

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -116  / under -112)

Kill Spread:  -1.5 @ -116 / +1.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 34:00 (over +111  / under -145)

 

I’ll admit that DRX have surprised me this season but as we talked about extensively on the podcast this week, they’ve also relied way too much on their opponents mistakes to win games. DRX are good enough to punish a flagrant error but they’ve struggled to engineer their own advantages. They just sort of wait and hope you screw up, a la APK in Spring last year. Sandbox looked much much better in their last outing, handling Afreeca in game two after a weird game one. This team also lost to KT Rolster and somehow managed to lose their debut match against Nongshim (don’t ask me how…). So it’s a bit of a mixed bag with Sandbox.

In my previous recaps I mentioned that I like Sandbox’s talent and that I expect them to eventually “get there” but that it might take some time. They already look significantly better even a couple of series into the season. DRX have had a nice start but Sandbox have the individual advantage at every single position on the map and look to be finally rounding into form. DRX have also had every win spoon fed to them off of a silver platter. They might be better than we thought but they’re still not a particularly good team.

Give me Sandbox all day here. This was my Pick of the Week on the podcast as well.

Other Markets:

I’ll be taking the time under even with the juice here again citing the season long trend.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: Liiv Sandbox -108 (2.16 units)

Spread: Liiv Sandbox -1.5 maps @ +280 (1 unit)

Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 34:00 @ -145 (1.45 units)

Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 34:00 @ -152 (1.52 units)

Time Total: Map 3 UNDER 34:00 @ -145 (1.45 units)

 

 


LOL European Championship (LEC)

Week 1 – Day 1

 

We welcome back the LEC on Friday with an interesting slate of matches to start the season. Last Spring was one of the most favorite dominant splits I’ve ever seen in any region in Europe but that quickly reversed course in Summer and showed that it was an outlier. Still, the overarching theme in the LEC this season is that we have a handful of teams that have gone through intelligent rebuilds that leave a lot of optimism and a few teams toward the top of the table that look like they’re going to be the title contenders.

For me details check out my LEC Spring 2021 Team-by-Team Outlook post which contains discussion about all of the roster moves, my long and short term outlooks for these teams, my tier list, and futures portfolio. I’ll be going primarily off of that tier list for my early handicaps with a few exceptions.

You’ll notice that I’m going to be backing a lot of my A Tier teams against the S Tier teams early on. This is for a few reasons.

First, early season variance. I’ve talked at length about how early in the season is the most prepared most of these underdogs are ever going to be against the heavy favorites and then, over time, the favorites prevail. It’s not always the case, especially with so many teams rebuilding but I’m very, very optimistic about the middle of the table in Europe being highly competitive even if they don’t quite measure up to the S Tier teams overall. There aren’t a lot of “easy” outs in Europe and even the bottom of the table teams have enough talent to take games.

Second, a few of the “elite” teams are going through some changes, unlike last season. G2 added a new player for the first time in years, Fnatic are picking up new players and coaching staff, and Rogue switched top laners.

Third, the favorites are all overpriced. We can see this from the futures market pricing where I wanted no part of any of them. Books use that as their baseline for opening numbers and begin to adjust using a blend of priors and current as the season progresses. You’re best off taking the dogs early when you’re getting good prices, strong preparation, and while the true favorites are still have some questions.

With all of this in mind, I’ll be extremely hard pressed to back any favorites in the first two weeks or so. They need to have a very strong case to justify their price and it’s tough to do that, especially in a best-of-one league. That doesn’t mean I’ll be on every single underdog but if the price is right, the price is right.

 

G2 Esports -333 vs MAD Lions +241

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -112 / under -116)

Kill Spread:  -8.5 @ -114 / +8.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 17.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +111  / under -145)

The upstart rookies that upset the titan in Spring get their chance again in the opening match of the season. In case you’ve been living under a rock, G2 landed Rekkles to replace Perkz and are the overwhelming favorites (-250) to win the Spring split. G2 are more or less going to be unbettable until they have some sort of losing streak of some kind. They’re prohibitively overpriced.

I’m not quite as high on MAD Lions as some of my colleagues but I do like the rebuild that this team has done replacing Shadow and Orome with stud prospect Elyoya and long time TCL star Armut. MAD Lions look like they’re going to be a more versatile team than they were last season and given this coaching staff’s aggressiveness in the draft that could prove even better for them. They’ve had all off season to cook up something special for G2 and we’re not entirely sure the chemistry will be there immediately for G2 anyway especially against one of the best bottom lanes in the league in Carzzy and Kaiser who excel at punishing with unique lane combinations.

I’ll take the dogs. As an added bonus to all of the questions for G2, they AND Rekkles have traditionally been slow starters. I like the kill total under here as well even though G2 games tend to be a little wild. This is a high total and I could see a more traditional, “boring” approach for them early on as they get acquainted.

 

My Picks:

Kill Spread: MAD +8.5 kills @ -114 (1.14 units)

Moneyline: MAD +241 (0.5 units)

Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 @ -116 (0.58 units)

 


Astralis +106 vs SK Gaming -135

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -120 / under -109)

Kill Spread:  +2.5 @ -110 / -2.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 34:00 (over +111  / under -145)

These two teams are very likely to finish in the bottom three. Most had SK as the worst team in the league. They didn’t bring back their excellent bottom lane and while the talent they picked up is promising, so is the talent pretty much everyone in the LEC has as well. I’ve seen some people put Astralis last but as you can read in my pre-season outlook piece, I’m optimistic that we see some positive regression for Nukeduck who had the first below average season of his near decade long career last season.

This should be even money. Give me the underdogs. I like the under time total as well if the other leagues in the world are any indication we should be getting ahead of this.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Astralis +106 (1 unit)

Time Total: UNDER 34:00 @ -145 (0.725 units)

 


Rogue -270 vs Excel +204

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -104 / under -125)

Kill Spread:  -6.5 @ -122 / +6.5 @ -108

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -132  / under +101)

I like Rogue quite a bit and had them in my S Tier but I’m also a huge fan of Excel’s rebuild and they’ll be in their second season under proven coach YoungBuck. Simply put, this number is too big for a very promising Excel lineup that added arguably the best prospect coming out of the EU Masters scene in Czekolad. Unlike some of my colleagues, I don’t think Rogue were a fluke, they were legitimately good and ridiculously consistent. This is more an endorsement of Excel.

 

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Excel +6.5 kills @ -108 (1.08 units)

Moneyline: Excel +204 (0.5 units)

 


Team Vitality +137 vs FC Schalke 04 -175

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -104 / under -125)

Kill Spread:  +4.5 @ -111 / -4.5 @ -118

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -127  / under -103)

 

I’m extremely optimistic about both of these teams. I had them atop my A Tier at #4 and #5 although that entire tier all looks solid to me. Two evenly matched teams by my pre-season evaluations, take the plus money. Boring I know.

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: Vitality +137 (1 unit)

 


Misfits +225 vs Fnatic -312

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -120 / under -111)

Kill Spread:  +8.5 @ -122 / -8.5 @ -110

Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 16.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -116  / under -116)

Misfits were one of the rebuilds that I liked but didn’t love. Still this team has quite a bit of talent and even though I have them toward the bottom of the table, I could easily be proven wrong by any of the bottom six teams in Europe this season.

I’m fairly bullish on Fnatic. I think they’ve upgraded their roster overall it’s just a matter of the time it’s going to take for them to build chemistry and whether you think the coaching staff change to YamatoCannon helps or hinders them. I’ve called him the Peter Laviolette of League of Legends before. Teams play for him in the first season or two and his teams frequently have a clear identity immediately. That’s what he’s good at. It’s possible Fnatic come out the gates firing but this organization has a history of slow starts and there are a lot of moving pieces coming in this offseason.

I’ll be passing on this one considering my thoughts on both of these teams (bearish on Misfits, bullish on Fnatic) but I’m not paying this price tag for Fnatic on day one.

 

My Picks:

none

 


LCS Lock-In Tournament

Week 2 – Day 1

Final Day of Group Stage

 

 

Dignitas +401 vs Cloud 9 -625

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -109 / under -119)

Kill Spread:  +9.5 @ -114 / -9.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 16.5

Time Total: OTB

There is a good chance Cloud 9 steamroll this matchup but I’m pretty hard-pressed to justify any sort of position on them in a best-of-one like this. Even the 9.5 kill spread is a little sketchy to me. They covered 9.5 against Immortals but that’s not a lot of margin for error. I’ll take a half stake position on that and a quarter on the moneyline. Dignitas get a week to prepare whatever single game strategy they want to in this position and as big underdogs with nothing to lose I could definitely see them pulling something weird out.

If I wasn’t suspecting something strange from Dignitas I’d like the kill total under here.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Dignitas +9.5 kills @ -114 (0.57 units)

Moneyline: Dignitas +401 (0.25 units)

 


Golden Guardians +284 vs 100 Thieves -400

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -122 / under -106)

Kill Spread:  +7.5 @ -108 / -7.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 15.5

Time Total: OTB

Iconic was outstanding in the first week, as was Niles who managed to put a silly amount of damage out while being camped out of his mind. 100 Thieves have looked really sharp and really dull. I do think this team mostly looks good at the moment and they look like they could be challenging to win this tournament but this is just too much in a best-of-one. I’ll take another half stake dog.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Golden Guardians +7.5 kills @ -108 (0.54 units)

Moneyline: Golden Guardians +284 (0.25 units)

 


Evil Geniuses -270 vs FlyQuest +204

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -118 / under -110)

Kill Spread:  -8.5 @ -114 / +8.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 8.5

Time Total: OTB

I feel kind of bad for FlyQuest who more or less brought in their sub jungler at the last minute. Clearly they didn’t get a lot of reps together. FlyQuest looked like the worst team in the tournament in week one and while it’s certainly possible that they turn things around, there’s really not a whole lot going for them. Evil Geniuses, on the other hand, have embraced everything I’ve wanted to them to for their bull case scenario through a few games and look to be in great form so far. I don’t like laying big kill spreads like this but this is the one favorite I’m going to be backing on this slate. I’m going to keep an eye on this total as well. If it dips down at all I’ll probably fire and update this so check back.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Evil Geniuses -8.5 kills @ -114 (1.14 units)

 


Team Liquid -217 vs Team Solo Mid +161

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -120 / under -112)

Kill Spread:  -5.5 @ -122 / +5.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 9.5

Time Total: OTB

Liquid certainly look like the team that’s in better form at the moment but I do suspect that TSM will improve the more time they get together. As it stand, I do think Liquid are probably the right side here. I’ll just stick to the kill spread. This is a fairly low total that’s worth considering an over on but there’s also a reasonable chance that Liquid steamroll this.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Liquid -5.5 kills @ -122 (1.22 units)

 


Immortals +120 vs FlyQuest -161

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -123 / under -110)

Kill Spread:  +4.5 @ -122 / -4.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 13.5

Time Total: OTB

So I know we don’t expect much from Immortals but this academy lineup has looked decent in their games so far and even took one down. Immortals have legitimately looked like a better team in this tournament so far and I’m getting plus money on what I think is the better of two bottom of the table teams. There’s also a good chance that FlyQuest are eliminated after their first loss on the day meaning they might mail this in or have nothing to play for while Immortals might be motivated by seeding to avoid the #1 from Group A.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Immortals +120 (0.5 units)

Kill Spread (alt): Immortals -1.5 kills @ +135 (0.5 units)


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

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