Thursday, February 25th Recap

 

DAMWON Gaming vs Liiv Sandbox (Net: +4.91 units)

Sandbox found yet another new way to lose in spectacular fashion in yet another game where Summit put in a heroic performance. That’s happened a handful of times this season and calls for the use of one of my all-time favorite gifs.

Jaguars Fan GIFs | Tenor

Sandbox continue to have outstanding starts and just find ways to lose games. It doesn’t seem to matter the situation or who they’re against either. It’s maddening. A few of these have been just bad luck but most of them are their own undoing and at some point you have to ask a sort of chicken or egg question akin to LGD last season in the LPL. Sandbox are 100% an undervalued team. Their statistical performance and literal in game performance for the first 20-25 minutes of games is actually amazing, they’d be a playoff team if it was just that, but they just fall apart at the seams once anything goes wrong. It’s a thing we see once in awhile. Honestly it’s just sad because I think my read on this team prior to the season was correct but they just can’t put it all together.

A lot of people are expressing concerns about DAMWON but as I discussed in the Discord today, you need to temper expectations for this team. Historically they’ve been better in Summer. Last season they barely made playoffs in Spring. When you have a team coming off of, in my opinion, the single best season of professional League of Legends ever played, it’s not really fair to compare them to that. DAMWON still have a top four economy in the world, the second best kill-agnostic economy rating, and they’re doing that with a brand new coaching staff and a new top laner. I’d say cut them some slack. You’re not going to average a +5000 gold differential at 20 very often. To expect it again is a little greedy. DAMWON are going to be fine, they’re still a cut above everyone that isn’t Gen.G.

Game one of this series was a hilarious viewing experience if you get a chance to run it back, thought the casters had a lot of fun with it.

Nongshim RedForce vs T1 (Net: +0.945 units)

T1 were in full control in both of these games. I don’t really have much to say because I think Nongshim is pretty bad and T1 took care of this series the way good teams take care of bad teams. Wasn’t a total shellacking on the box score but they controlled beginning-to-end.

Rogue Warriors vs Royal Never Give Up (Net: +3.54 units)

I know Ziv has been awful this season and I feel for the guy who took a risk late in his career trying a major league, but this was Xiaohu’s most dominant performance as a top laner with back-to-back great Camille games.

RNG are good and not going to lose to bad teams very often this was mostly a report card or mid term grade for Xiaohu.

Betty and Kaixuan were unexciting in this series but it’s tough to really evaluate them when the top part of their map got destroyed in both games. I still think they provide an instant upgrade over the circus that was RW’s bot lane this season.

OMG vs Victory Five (Net: +1.05 units)

I said it after their second match, OMG are a one trick pony team and unlike being good at a generic style like uptempo teams or scaling two-core compositions, they’re just globals, every game they can get them. If you just attack the globals they’re completely lost. Gank mid… No seriously, just gank mid. Wuming isn’t up to the level of his colleagues in the LPL to begin with, apply pressure and it just falls apart.

 

LPL Net Total: +4.59 units

LCK Net Total: +5.855 units

 

Daily Net Total: +10.445 units

 

Great day, let’s see if we can keep it going.

 


 

LOL Pro League (China)

Week 6 – Day 5

 

JD Gaming -1000 (-1.5 maps @ -222, +1.5 @ -3333)

vs

TT (ThunderTalk) Gaming +616 (+1.5 maps @ +170, -1.5 @ +1012)

 

Map ML Price: JDG -588 / TT +381

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +206 / under -278)

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -106 / under -122)

Kill Spread: -9.5 @ -116 / +9.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 17.5 / 7.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +118 / under -154)

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

TT +1.5 maps @ +170 (VERY VERY Strong)

TT moneyline @ +616 (VERY VERY Strong)

TT map moneyline @ +381 (VERY VERY Strong)

OVER 2.5 maps @ +206 (very strong)

 

So JDG have not performed well in the statistical model so far this season. They are the “league average” team and are in a similar tier to RareAtom, Victory Five, Suning, and, coincidentally, TT. Part of this is the rough start they had and they’ve certainly looked better in recent matches but my economy/objective model bakes that into the equation when coming up with these relative strength ratings. I use a composite of season long and trending recent performance.

What gives with JDG? Wasn’t this one of the best teams in the world last year?

Clearly they’re not in that form right now but I also think that they’ve faced a very difficult schedule. JDG have played WE, TOP, RareAtom, EDG, IG, BLG, and Suning, all good to great teams (arguably all top 10). Their only easy match was against Rogue Warriors. JDG are getting it done ugly but they are getting it done which makes it challenging to evaluate them. They don’t do anything particularly well but they’re not terrible by any stretch either. Right now, JDG look like a true middle of the table team albeit against a very difficult schedule which means that they’re probably a little better than their numbers suggest. If you bake in some positive regression I think it’s reasonable to expect a strong second half from this team not just because of their schedule but just general improvement.

TT probably should have won 2-1 against RareAtom if not for a tremendous punt in game three. They’re a slightly better version of their Summer version (Dominus). Their mid and late game decision making has been terrible even with the veterans in the lineup but they’re consistently jumped out to tempo advantages early in games. You do have to downgrade teams that are like that but it does give them a better chance to pull off upset wins than all-around terrible teams. TT have outperformed their bottom half peers in a lot of metrics but, like Sandbox just can’t seem to piece it all together. It makes them difficult to evaluate as well.

The model obviously loves TT here and it makes a lot of sense given the statistical profile of these two teams. I certainly don’t feel quite as bullish because JDG have faced a brutal schedule and have been dealing with a bit of fatigue (you can just tell watching). Model makes this line -132 / +108. Is this the absolutely ridiculous 30+% edge on the market that the model thinks? Likely not but I do think it’s fair to question JDG’s performance so far this season and discuss that maybe they’re just not as good as the name brand value. We want to give these players the benefit of the doubt but only Zoom and Kanavi have really been performing above average. We want to give this team the benefit of the doubt that they’ll “figure it out” or that they’re coasting coming off of documented discussion of burn out. And they’re still winning, after all so how bad could they be?

Another angle here is that TT played on Wednesday and likely prepared for that match a lot considering how they looked, but JDG got to focus on this match and got some much needed rest.

I’m going to be playing the underdogs here but just for a standard stake. I don’t think the advantage is nearly as much as the model does but I don’t think JDG deserve to be laying this kind of line to anybody including the bottom of the table with how they’ve played this season.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 25.178

Time-Implied: 26.691

Underdog Win: 24.288

“Gelati” Total Projection: 26.006 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total:  43.75% (JDG 43.75% / TT 43.75%)

Volatility Rating: JDG 0.24795 / TT 0.24860 (League Avg: 0.2922)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

JDG Team total UNDER 17.5 kills @ -119 (very strong edge)

(alt) OVER 24.5 kills @ -133 (very small edge)

UNDER 26.5 kills @ -122 (miniscule edge)

 

This is an accurate price on the full game total so pass there. I do actually like the JDG team total under though. TT are averaging 17.23 deaths per loss this season which is on the higher end and JDG are averaging exactly 17.5 kills per win but would have failed to cover this number in their past six game wins. This is probably more of an indication to play the underdog kill spread than JDG team total under. JDG have an average margin of victory of 7.74 kills while Dominus have an average margin of defeat of 8.44 kills. I’ll take the kill spread.

 

 

 

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 32.56 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted:  32.53 / 32.8

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 59.375% (JDG 50% / TT 68.75%)

Volatility Rating: JDG 0.17744 / TT 0.15889 (League Avg: 0.15437)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 32:00 @ +118 (strong edge)

 

I do like this play quite a bit. As we discussed in great detail for Wednesday’s match, TT have been doing a great job getting ahead in the tempo game but frequently stall out. They’re not getting blown out very often because they’re consistently taking the lead before throwing it which leads to longer, comeback games or their opponents playing slowly and letting them beat themselves.

 

 

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

TT first tower @ +121 (very strong)

TT first dragon @ +115 (very strong)

TT first herald @ +112 (very strong)

OVER 1.5 barons @ +218 (strong)

OVER 4.5 dragons @ -102 (small)

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -270 (small)

 

Interesting selection of plays here. A few of these (over 1.5 barons, over 4.5 dragons ) are correlated to the time total over which I just like more. JDG are a much better herald team than RareAtom so that play isn’t quite as potent in this matchup but it’s still a good one. Part of why JDG have been struggling is that they’re not getting a lot done in the early game but they have had a 50% first herald vs 31.25% first dragon this season so I think I’d rather take the dragon market in this match than the herald/tower correlation.

 

My Picks:

 

Map Spread: TT +1.5 maps @ +170 (1 unit)

Moneyline: TT +616 (0.25 units)

Map Spread: TT -1.5 maps @ +1012 (0.1 units)

Kill Spread: Map 1 TT +9.5 kills @ -112 (1.12 units)

Kill Spread: Map 2 TT +9.5 kills @ -109 (1.09 units)

Kill Spread: Map 3 TT +9.5 kills @ -133 (1.33 units)

Time Total: Map 1 OVER 32:00 @ +118 (1 unit)

Time Total: Map 2 OVER 32:00 @ +118 (1 unit)

Time Total: Map 3 OVER 32:00 @ +118 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 TT first dragon @ +115 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 TT first dragon @ +115 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 3 TT first dragon @ +115 (1 unit)

 


 

Invictus +150 (+1.5 maps @ -213, -1.5 @ +381)

vs

EDward Gaming -182 (-1.5 maps @ +165, +1.5 @ -588)

 

Map ML Price: IG +126 / EDG -161

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +104 / under -132)

Kill Total: 27.5 (over -110 / under -119)

Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -130 / -6.5 @ +100

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +157 / under -208)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Invictus moneyline +150 (very small)

Invictus +1.5 maps @ -213 (very small)

Over 2.5 maps @ +104 (miniscule)

Invictus map moneyline @ +126 (miniscule)

 

No plays on the side for this match as I make this more or less right on the market. What’s interesting here is Puff is stepping back into the fold for Invictus. He played most of last season with the squad along with a handful of supports. Perhaps he’s been gelling with Lucas in scrims or something. I think Wink is a better player (model does as well, he’s the #4 ADC) but if the overall bottom lane is upgraded and it makes Invictus just play a more intelligent game as a team then I think this could be an upgrade.

The long and short of this handicap is that I think Invictus have been underachieving expectation in the win column relative to their performance mostly just because they’ve been playing really stupidly. EDG have been overachieving expectation relative to their performance because they’re playing very intelligent League of Legends. At some point I think we get a little regression from both. We’ve seen significantly better play from Invictus in the past and it’s not like Lucas and Puff are new players to this roster or anything they just are this season. This is a bit of a “gut” handicap but I think Invictus take this series down. I won’t be wagering on a side though.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 27.871

Time-Implied: 28.16

Underdog Win: 29.956

“Gelati” Total Projection: 27.838 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total:  36.11% (EDG 16.67% / IG 55.56%)

Volatility Rating: EDG 0.2458 / IG 0.33841 (League Avg: 0.2922)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Invictus team total OVER 11.5 kills @ -109 (VERY strong)

UNDER 27.5 kills @ -119 (strong)

(alt) UNDER 28.5 kills @ -139 (strong)

(alt) UNDER 26.5 kills @ -109 (moderate)

 

Typically when I see an under on the total and a strong edge on the underdog team total I like the kill spread but in this case, these two teams are both what I’d call “consistent losers” in that they’re very low volatility in losses which comes as a bit of a surprise with Invictus specifically who are usually a part of at least a few clown fiestas over the course of the season.

I could see this being a bloodbath but I could also see this turning into a TheShy vs Flandre split push game. In that case I like unders. This is a very high total and I’m going to gravitate toward the under in these spots but I’m going to stay half stake on it. Invictus are sometimes very bloody in wins, sometimes split push. They’re an extremely volatile team in wins.

 

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 31.16 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 31.59 / 31.59

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total:  50% (EDG 77.78% / IG 22.22%)

Volatility Rating: EDG 0.12585 / IG 0.15118 (League Avg: 0.15437)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 33:00 @ +157 (strong)

 

I think this one depends on a few things. First, do you think Invictus are more or less likely to win this series than the market? If you think Invictus are likely to win this, they’re a fast winner and even though EDG are “slow losers” it’s probably a pass. If you think EDG are more likely than market to win this OR if you think this market is accurate then I do think the under is worth a play. On average I project a little more than half the games through simulation to go under this total and we’re getting plus money on it. This is mostly just a price play. Half stake.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Invictus first dragon @ -115 (very strong)

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -244 (very strong)

EDG first tower @ -149 (strong)

Invictus first blood @ -111 (moderate-strong)

OVER 4.5 dragons @ -147 (moderate)

 

The first blood and first tower listed here lose a bit of value given that the opposite side is above average in them. However, Invictus first dragon makes a lot more sense to me. They’re at a 72.22% rate on the season to EDG’s 50%, I’ll take that advantage for a stake.

Towers and time totals aren’t as correlated as you’d think so I actually like taking a half stake on the under 12.5 towers here. Unless you think we get an absolute slobberknocker in two of these games. I think that’s fairly likely in at least one of these games but numbers are pretty strong in our favor here so just close your nose and place it.

 

My Picks:

 

Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 27.5 @ -119 (0.595 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 27.5 @ -114 (0.57 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 UNDER 27.5 @ -118 (0.59 units)

Time Total: Map 1 OVER 33:00 @ +157 (0.5 units)

Time Total: Map 2 OVER 33:00 @ +153 (0.5 units)

Time Total: Map 3 OVER 33:00 @ +154 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 1 Invictus first dragon @ -115 (1.15 units)

Prop: Map 2 Invictus first dragon @ -115 (1.15 units)

Prop: Map 3 Invictus first dragon @ -115 (1.15 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -244 (1.22 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -244 (1.22 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -238 (1.19 units)

 

 


 

LOL Champions Korea (LCK)

Week 6 – Day 2

 

Gen.G -1111 (-1.5 maps @ -256, +1.5 @ -3333)

vs

Fredit Brion +679 (+1.5 maps @ +193, -1.5 @ +1012)

 

Map ML Price: Gen.G -625 / Brion +403

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +229 / under -312)

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -119 / under -110)

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -122 / +8.5 @ -108

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 6.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over +119 / under -156)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Gen.G -1.5 maps @ -256 (moderate-strong)

UNDER 2.5 maps @ -312 (moderate)

Gen.G moneyline -1111 (moderate)

Gen.G map moneyline @ -625 (light)

 

So here’s the catch with this and I’m just going to open with it to save any headaches. I think there’s a VERY STRONG possibility that we see subs for Gen.G in this series. At the very least I think we’ll see Flawless, possibly Karis, and an outside chance at stud top lane prospect Burdol. If it’s just Flawless playing and the rest of the normal lineup I still think Gen.G roll. Flawless has had a few lowlight plays that have taken away from otherwise great performances in the few games we’ve seen him this season. He’s also a seasoned veteran so I’d be comfortable with him stepping in. If Karis plays I’m suddenly very interested in Brion.

I know Brion had the miracle win against DAMWON but this isn’t a particularly good team. The question is how bad. Brion are a smart team and definitely good enough to punish you if you screw up but they’ve struggled to create their own advantages outside of that DAMWON series where they went super human.

Pass unless we see Karis then I’m interested in a very small stake on Brion.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 23.06 kills

Time-Implied: 23.737 kills

Underdog Win: 20.875 kills

“Gelati” Total Projection: 23.333 kills 

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 55% (Gen.G 50% / Brion 60%)

Volatility Rating: Gen.G 0.29879 / Brion 0.32724 (League Avg: 0.3263)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Brion team total OVER 6.5 kills @ -116 (VERY  strong)

OVER 22.5 kills @ -119 (miniscule)

 

This number is right on the money to me. I do think that there’s a chance for some clowning around here and if we see multiple rookies (Karis AND Burdol) play for Gen.G then maybe a light play on the over is worth a shot, better yet, I like the Brion team total over 6.5 kills if the rookies play.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 32.841minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 32.59 / 32.43

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 77.92% (Gen.G 70.83% / Brion 85%)

Volatility Rating: Gen.G 0.1723 / Brion 0.16002 (League Avg: 0.15017)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 31:00 @ +119 (VERY VERY Strong)

 

There’s a chance Gen.G just obliterate Brion but they’re only averaging 31.7 minutes in wins and over 70% of their games have gone over this total. Brion are losing in an average of 32.73 minutes and have only gone under this total in 15% of matches. Seems like a no brainer to me plus we get the added bonus of some slightly sloppier play if the rookies play.

The second and third maps for this are priced at 33:00 and I still think this is a decent play there given the better odds it scales decently well. It’s still a strong grade in the model.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Gen.G first blood @ -164 (VERY strong)**

Brion first dragon @ +122 (VERY strong)

OVER 1.5 barons @ +161 (very small)

OVER 4.5 dragons @ +112 (very small)

 

I don’t usually like laying big juice with first blood as it’s a high volatility prop but if Clid plays I do like it. Less confident if Flawless is in but he’s a strong first blood jungler as well. I’m just going to take a play on the Brion first dragon. This is very much a tale of styles. Gen.G are a herald snowball team, Brion are a dragon scaling team. Dogs in that situation are very profitable.

 

My Picks:

 

Regardless of who plays:

Time Total: Map 1 OVER 31:00 @ +119 (1 unit)

Time Total: Map 2 OVER 33:00 @ +136 (1 unit)

Time Total: Map 3 OVER 33:00 @ +136 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 Brion first dragon @ +122 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 Brion first dragon @ +121 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 3 Brion first dragon @ +121 (1 unit)

 

 IF Karis AND Flawless or Karis+Flawless+Burdol play:

Kill Total (team): Map 1 Brion OVER 6.5 kills @ -112 (1.12 units)

Kill Total (team): Map 2 Brion OVER 6.5 kills @ -112 (1.12 units)

Kill Total (team): Map 3 Brion OVER 6.5 kills @ -112 (1.12 units)

 


Afreeca Freecs +127 (+1.5 maps @ -256, -1.5 maps @ +349)

vs

KT Rolster -154 (-1.5 maps @ +194, +1.5 @ -526)

 

Map ML Price: Afreeca +110 / KT -141

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over -109 / under -116)

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -115 / under -114)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -127 / -4.5 @ -103

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -156 / under +119)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Afreeca moneyline @ +127 (strong)

Afreeca map moneyline @ +110 (moderate)

 

Two teams that have been very difficult to figure out and very VERY frustrating to handicap this season. The economy/objective model has both of these teams graded as below average, Afreeca slightly below and KT moderately below so obviously it’s going to like Afreeca in this position. Throw in Gideon to the mix now and it becomes even more perplexing now that he’s got his first series out of the way and looked decent.

If we take a closer look at the anatomy of both of these teams KT have the better traditional economy largely off the back of Doran who is creating almost all of their gold differentials on his own. By the way, Doran is doing 30.6% of his teams damage and at 571 has one of the highest damage per minute numbers of any player in the league. He has 16 solo kills, three more than second place Rascal who has 13. He’s the 4th rated overall player in the LCK in my individual player model behind only Chovy, Teddy, and Ruler. He’s having an absolutely ridiculous season on a team that’s been struggling.

Between both teams Doran has been the best individual player this season but Kiin has been no slouch himself and is doing his usual thing of being one of the better top laners in the league. This is a tougher matchup for Doran, he might not be able to hard carry nearly as much here. Afreeca have also been the stronger objective team and hold a slightly better kill agnostic gold per minute and a significantly better kill agnostic gold differential per minute suggesting that their advantages are more “organic” and less reliant on variance of kills.

Afreeca have burned me so many times this season but they’re definitely the play here and I think they’ve been the better overall team despite their inconsistencies. If KT were plus money I’d probably be taking them at this price. Close your eyes special. This match is going to tell us a lot, hopefully, about the end of season trajectories for these squads.

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 28.3 kills

Time-Implied: 26.21 kills

Underdog Win: 27.84 kills

“Gelati” Total Projection: 26.866 kills 

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 54.32% (KT 56% / AF 52.63%)

Volatility Rating: KT 0.28930 / AF 0.30025 (League Avg: 0.3263)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

(alt) OVER 23.5 kills @ -139 (moderate-light)

OVER 24.5 kills @ -115 (miniscule)

KT Team total over 13.5 kills @ -108 (miniscule)

 

These numbers are about on market. No plays from me. These will likely be long, grindy games, those can go either way. The projections like the overs here but I’m just going to pass.

 

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 34.483 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 34.49 / 34.48

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 72.21% (KT 76% / AF 68.42%)

Volatility Rating: KT 0.16366 / AF 0.16351 (League Avg: 0.15017)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 33:00 @ -156 (strong)

 

Neither of these teams have been very good early with each carrying a deficit in their season long averages at 10 minutes. I do like the over quite a bit in this spot. Both of these teams have been slow as molasses in both wins and losses and I could see this turning into a very VERY grindy, drawn out series.

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Afreeca first blood @ -130 (VERY strong)

OVER 1.5 barons @ +126 (strong)

Afreeca first herald @ -110 (strong)

OVER 4.5 dragons @ -132 (small)

OVER 12.5 towers @ +139 (very small)

 

I rarely play the baron prop but I think if you’re going to this is the series to do it. It’s sort of double dipping on the time total though so the question is whether you want to stomach the variance for the better odds or just double down and play both. I’m going to play full stake on the time total as mentioned already but I can see liking this more.

Dread has been a bit of a wizard on first blood this season and Afreeca are almost 74% first blood while still having a 63+% first herald rate which is a weird combination. The first blood play is stronger in the model but I do think the herald is probably the way to go on this one. Both are strong edges.

 

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: Afreeca +127 (1 unit)

Map Spread: Afreeca -1.5 maps @ +349 (0.5 units)

Time Total: Map 1 OVER 33:00 @ -156 (1.56 units)

Time Total: Map 2 OVER 33:00 @ -159 (1.59 units)

Time Total: Map 3 OVER 33:00 @ -161 (1.61 units)

Prop: Map 1 Afreeca first herald @ -110 (1.1 units)

Prop: Map 2 Afreeca first herald @ -110 (1.1 units)

Prop: Map 3 Afreeca first herald @ -110 (1.1 units)

 


 

LOL European Championship (LEC)

Week 6 – Day 1

 

 

 

MAD Lions -222 vs SK Gaming +165

 

Kill Total: 27.5 (over -114 / under -114)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -122 / +7.5 @ -108

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 34:00 (over +185 / under -256)

 

MAD had a bit of a bounce back later last weekend after a rough previous outing. They did somewhat get gifted a win on Friday but they did completely ram it home in style. I still don’t entirely trust this team, specifically the bottom lane who have been playing recklessly aggressive at times. Sure it looks good when it works but you can still get away with something even if it’s a terrible idea. Anyway, I digresss.

I think this market is just about right, if anything I’d lean toward the SK side if I was forced to make a play but to me the more obvious look here is on the under 34:00. SK Gaming have gone under in 7 of their 8 contests as underdogs. MAD in all 5 scenarios as favorites.  The average total in those games was 32.2 minutes. You’re paying a price for it but that’s about as “no-brainer” a bet as you can get. Feel free to hit me back after we get a 45 minute clown fiesta though!

 

My Picks:

Time Total: UNDER 34:00 @ -256 (2.56 units)

 


Misfits Gaming -115 vs Excel Esports -106

 

Kill Total: 27.5 (over -114 / under -114)

Kill Spread: -1.5 @ -108 / +1.5 @ -122

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 34:00 (over +133 / under -175)

Money has come in on Misfits over the course of the week. When we recorded The Gold Card Podcast on Wednesday night this was Excel -145 / Misfits +110. This is a classic fire vs ice matchup. Excel have mostly been the slow and steady scaling team while Misfits have drafted to stomp lanes and hope they do so to enough of an extent that their sketchy macro play doesn’t end of mattering. The problem is that it has.

Excel were able to weather the storm the last time these two played and managed to stall out Misfits to come back from a 4500+ gold deficit to win the game. Imagine if Misfits don’t jump out to that large of a lead.

So really this handicap comes down to whether or not you think Misfits will get a big enough lead to win this game or not. They’ve been very poor in finishing games out even when they do get large advantages so I’m skeptical. I typically like backing the teams that take the lead, it’s easier to play from there but Misfits have way too many red flags for me to back them as a favorite.

The combination of line movement in favor of Excel backers and the fact that I think Excel can do something similar to last time and just wait out Misfits make me want to take a light position on Excel and the over.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Excel -106 (0.53 units)

Time Total: OVER 34:00 @ +133 (1 unit)

 


Team Vitality +458 vs G2 Esports -714

 

Kill Total: 29.5 (over -114 / under -114)

Kill Spread: +11.5 @ -133 / -11.5 @ +103

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 18.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -116 / under -112)

This version of G2 aren’t the kind of team to mess around like previous iterations, at least that we’ve seen so far. In the past this would be an obvious spot to back them. I’m not mega excited for Vitality but they do look much better and Crownshot has already put up some impressive performances in the few games he’s played (he’s ranked #1 at ADC in my individual player model already even with a few losses). I just get the feeling this could be a G2 coast spot and Vitality are in desperation mode. Stylistically I don’t like it as much because Vitality make a lot of mistakes in transitions in the mid and late game and G2 punish that better than anyone but this is a big BIG number for a best-of-one and I’m going to back the dogs here.

Vitality are 7-3 against the kill spread as underdogs (average: +5) and G2 are 5-6 (average: -8.5). We’re getting a juicy 11.5 or flat ten. I like either plus sprinkle some on the moneyline.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Vitality +11.5 kills @ -133 (1.33 units)

Moneyline: Vitality +458 (0.5 units)

 


Schalke 04  +226 vs Rogue -303

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -114 / under -114)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -114 / -7.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -149 / under +112)

 

Schalke are such a bizarre team. They look so polished sometimes and then other games it’s a complete bonanza and they end up dropping to a lower level squad. I do think Schalke are good but just a little inconsistent. They also tend to elevate against the good teams. Rogue are very VERY good but I think Schalke can probably cover this if it stays low scoring like the total suggests. I’m going to pass on a side in this game but I’d lean toward Schalke +7.5 if I had to take one.

For those that don’t know, Schalke is going through some financial trouble and might be forced to sell this LEC slot. We’ve seen situations like this in the past and sometimes it affects the players negatively, other times it galvanizes them. It’s anybody’s guess. If anything is way out of the ordinary with these guys I think we’ll be able to tell after the first game.

Kill Totals have gone under in 7 out of 9 games where Rogue were favored (average total: 23.06). I don’t hate that here but only if you think this isn’t competitive. I’ll be passing this match altogether.

My Picks:

no wagers

 


Fnatic -435 vs Astralis +303

 

Kill Total: 29.5 (over -114 / under -114)

Kill Spread: -10.5 @ -114 / +10.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 19.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +153 / under -207)

Astralis legitimately look better. The outer lanes aren’t getting stomped every single game and they’re playing confidently and aggressively. You need to treat Astralis like a different team than the one many had as the lock for last place. Is this team good? I don’t think so but they’re good enough to take games. Fnatic have shown to be very good but also volatile by design. They’re also an aggressive, punch first-ask questions later type of team. The only hangup I have about throwing a dart at Astralis here is the Bwipo is playing at a very high level right now and while WhiteKnight is improved from his early season form, he’s still not exactly knocking anybody’s socks off.

I’ll take Astralis on the kill spread and a tiny piece on the moneyline. Fnatic are volatile enough and this is a big enough number and spread. Close your eyes special!

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Astralis +10.5 kills @ -114 (1.14 units)

Moneyline: Astralis +303 (0.25 units)

 

 


LOL Championship Series (LCS)

Week 4 – Day 1

 

 

Cloud 9 -769 vs Golden Guardians +479

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -110 / under -119)

Kill Spread: -9.5 @ -108 / +9.5 @ -122

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 6.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -118 / under -111)

I know Golden Guardians just beat 100 Thieves. It took that kind of circus for it to happen. This team is still more or less not doing anything correctly. Until Golden Guardians show me they know how to properly punch and counterpunch and show basic understanding of the fundamentals of professional level play then I’m just completely out on them. Unless you think the team they’re facing is going to beat themselves or get too cute then you just can’t back this team even at these outrageous numbers.

Cloud 9 strike me as a team that might clown around at little bit here but even then I have a hard time not seeing Blaber take over this game. He’s been playing out of his mind this season and would be my vote for MVP right now.

I usually don’t like laying kill spreads this large but I think it’s the play here. Cloud 9 stomp and the over.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Cloud 9 – 9.5 kills @ -108 (1.08 units)

Kill Total: OVER 24.5 @ -110 (1.1 units)

 


Team Liquid -208 vs Team Solo Mid +156

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -111 / under -118)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -111 / +6.5 @ -118

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +100 / under -130)

We talked a lot about this one on The Gold Card Podcast this week. TSM look like they’ve found their footing. I’m not crowning them elite or anything yet as we’ve only seen a few weeks of this version but they certainly look much better than they did in the early going. Liquid have had their hiccups as well but are fresh off of beating down Cloud 9 on Sunday. I think there’s a reasonable chance that those three teams end up as your “elite” top of the table teams in the LCS. I do think Liquid are a better team but early on in the season and with both of these teams looking good I think it’s probably closer to a Liquid weighted coin flip than this. Light play on the dogs.

My Picks:

Moneyline: TSM +156 (0.5 units)

 

 


Evil Geniuses -233 vs FlyQuest +176

 

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -112 / under -116)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -122 / +6.5 @ -106

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -116 / under -112)

FlyQuest are still struggling a bit but have shown some good signs. Evil Geniuses are mostly good but highly volatile much like Fnatic in the LEC although maybe not quite to that overall caliber. EG are the kind of team that beat themselves which makes them problematic as big favorites but their ceiling performances are capable of beating anybody so they’re going to become a team we mostly fade as favorites (but not in DFS), but back as underdogs against the top teams.

If I had to pick one here I’d lean FlyQuest but I’m staying away from this match. I have no idea how this one plays out.

My Picks:

no wagers

 


Counter Logic Gaming (CLG) +263  vs 100 Thieves -370

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -119 / under -110)

Kill Spread: +8.5 @ -116 / -8.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -103 / under -125)

CLG will have another week to gel with Broxah and it appears that Pobelter will be returning to the starting lineup with Rjs playing academy this week and not being on the media availability list. I don’t think will be a sudden turnaround or anything but we’ve seen that 100 Thieves’ uptempo focused style can be volatile sometimes and I do think this original intended iteration of CLG was going to be a sneaky good team of veterans. The timing was shifted and it’s a little weird that we’re a few weeks in already but I still think that’s the case. Especially with limited film (recently) I actually think CLG are a decent play here as an underdog.

If you’re bullish on 100 Thieves the under 32:00 is a great play here but I think this could be competitive.

 My Picks:

Kill Spread: CLG +8.5 kills @ -116 (1.16 units)

Moneyline: CLG +263 (0.5 units)

 


Immortals +142 vs Dignitas -192

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -120 / under -111)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -127 / -4.5 @ -108

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -128 / under -106)

Dignitas may not be as good as they’ve been performing so far this season but they are playing solid League of Legends right now and you can’t really take that away from them. This isn’t quite like what DRX is doing in the LCK, Dignitas have dominated beginning-to-end in a handful of games already this season and their coaching staff is setting them up with simple to execute drafts. Eventually this is going to catch up with them but for the time being they’re just a middle of the table team.

Immortals have had their ups and downs but I think they’re also a team that’s finding their footing. The fundamentals are lacking in some games but excellent in others which makes me think that eventually this team is going to settle into a “good, but not great” sort of role and likely challenge for a playoff position down the line.

The boat has sailed on this if you liked Dignitas. This was a -130 / +110 when we recorded the podcast this week. I’m going to take a small piece of Immortals at this price. I have this as close to a coin flip and I don’t trust middle and bottom of the table LCS teams as big favorites unless it’s against truly terrible teams which only come up from time to time (like Golden Guardians).

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: Immortals +144 (1 unit)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

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