Thursday, August 5th Recap

 

ThunderTalk (TT) Gaming vs UltraPrime (Net: +2.0 units)

EDward Gaming vs LNG Esports (no action)

Lines were mostly off the board for this match all day yesterday.

RareAtom vs Invictus Gaming (no action)

 

DAMWON Kia vs Fredit Brion (Net: -0.19 units)

Liiv Sandbox vs Hanwha Life Esports (Net: +2.45 units)

 

 

LPL Net Total: +2.0 units

LCK Net Total: +2.26 units

 

Daily Net Total: +4.26 units

 

 


LPL Summer 2021

Week Nine – Day Five

 

Victory Five +324 (+1.5 maps @ +105, -1.5 @ +801)

vs

LGD Gaming -476 (-1.5 maps @ -133, +1.5 @ -2000)

 

Map Moneyline: V5 +238 / LGD -323

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -120 / under -109)

Kill Spread: +8.5 @ -123 / -8.5 @ -105

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 16.5

Time Total: OTB

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +147 / -189 (map), +187 / -249 (series), -178 / +139 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play:  Victory Five +1.5 maps (strong), series moneyline and -1.5 (moderate)

Starters:

V5 – Aliez, Pzx, Uniboy, Kepler, ZYF

LGD – Fearness, Shad0w, Xiye, Kramer, Mark

Trends
LGD as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) V5 as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 4 1 -365 Matches as Underdogs 0 14 +761
Against Map Spread 4 1 +59 Against Map Spread 3 11 +152
Against Kill Spread 8 2 5.1 Against Kill Spread 13 18 +9
Kill Totals 5 5 26.10 Kill Totals 10 21 25.50
Team Kill Totals 6 4 15.10 Team Kill Totals 12 19 7.93
Game Time Totals 4 6 30.2 Game Time Totals 16 15 29.43
Dragons over 4.5 4 6 Dragons over 4.5 13 18
Towers over 11.5 5 5 Towers over 11.5 13 18

 

League Rank LGD Tale of the Tape Victory Five League Rank
11 -516.4 Gold Diff @ 10 min -2432.3 17
16 -1442.8 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1305.1 14
15 -1937.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min -394.5 17
-27.6 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -117.1
13 -85.0 Gold Diff / min first 20 -205.6 17
12 226.6 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -51.0 14
12 1755.4 Gold /min (GPM) 1585.1 17
-33.1 Gold / min vs Avg -203.3
12 -58.3 Gold Diff / min -354.6 17
12 -0.8 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -5.0 17
13 1569.8 Kill Agnostic GPM 1480.1 17
12 -31.8 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -225.5 17
13 1923.0 GPM in wins 1898.1 14
13 293.7 Gold Diff per min in wins 291.4 14
10 1629.7 GPM in losses 1553.8 17
9 -322.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -419.2 16
-53.3 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -349.6
13 -25.4 Win-Adjusted GPM -50.3 14
13 -27.5 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -29.8 14
13 45.1 Dragon Control % 29.6 17
14 37.1 Herald Control % 36.4 15
10 51.4 Baron Control % 15.0 17
6.0 Quality Wins? 2.0
40.0 % of wins as Quality 66.7

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 38.951%
2 1 29.283%
1 2 17.637%
0 2 14.129%
(Series Win): 68.234%

 

Well, if it’s going to happen this is the series it’s going to happen. We talked a lot about this match on the podcast Wednesday because both John and I thought this was a bullet worth firing on V5. This team is historically bad but this number is really large for a fairly poor and inconsistent LGD team that takes a lot of unnecessary risks. This match also does not matter to either team with both eliminated so I could see this turning into a complete clown fiesta. There’s an outside chance that LGD get up for this one and want to end on a good note, especially with so many aging players that could potentially retire after this season.

I’m going to take a shot on V5 here. It’s not as good a number as it was earlier in the week but it’s still a sizeable edge on market price and there’s a strong chance this is just a mess of a series. Kill total over are enticing here as well but I’m going to just stick to the sides and V5 first blood (42.8% vs 57.6%).

 

My Picks:

Map Spread: V5 +1.5 maps @ +105 (1 unit)

Moneyline: V5 +325 (0.25 units)

Map Spread: V5 -1.5 maps @ +802 (0.1 units)

Prop: Map 1 V5 first blood @ -102 (1.02 units)

Prop: Map 2 V5 first blood @ +101 (1 unit)

 


 

JD Gaming -278 (-1.5 maps @ +112, +1.5 @ -833)

vs

Rogue Warriors +206 (+1.5 maps @ -143, -1.5 @ +494)

 

Map Moneyline: JDG -222 / RW +171

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -122 / under -108)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -119 / +5.5 @ -109

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -120 / under -108)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -177 / +138 (map), -225 / +170 (series), +149 / -193 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play:  RW +1.5 maps (moderate), RW series moneyline and -1.5 maps (light)

Starters:

JDG – Zoom, Kanavi, Yagao, Lpc, LvMao

RW – Zdz, Xiaohao, Forge, Betty, QiuQiu

Trends
JDG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) RW as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 5 5 -893 Matches as Underdogs 4 10 +594
Against Map Spread 4 6 -42 Against Map Spread 8 6 +102
Against Kill Spread 8 15 6.7 Against Kill Spread 19 16 +8
Kill Totals 11 12 26.30 Kill Totals 17 18 25.50
Team Kill Totals 10 13 16.00 Team Kill Totals 21 14 8.43
Game Time Totals 11 12 30.3 Game Time Totals 19 16 29.57
Dragons over 4.5 12 11 Dragons over 4.5 16 19
Towers over 11.5 11 12 Towers over 11.5 12 23

 

League Rank JDG Tale of the Tape Rogue Warriors League Rank
14 -634.0 Gold Diff @ 10 min -577.6 12
11 -794.9 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1510.7 17
14 -1412.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1362.5 13
21.6 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -113.4
8 -22.9 Gold Diff / min first 20 -104.4 16
10 278.9 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 47.6 13
8 1807.6 Gold /min (GPM) 1682.5 15
19.2 Gold / min vs Avg -106.0
10 -11.0 Gold Diff / min -199.8 15
10 -0.2 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.8 15
10 1604.1 Kill Agnostic GPM 1534.5 15
11 -7.7 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -123.6 15
6 1982.6 GPM in wins 1896.3 16
9 326.1 Gold Diff per min in wins 204.2 17
7 1642.4 GPM in losses 1587.4 15
11 -329.4 Gold Diff per min in losses -379.4 14
-6.0 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -194.8
6 34.2 Win-Adjusted GPM -52.1 16
9 5.0 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -117.0 17
10 49.7 Dragon Control % 38.1 16
17 31.9 Herald Control % 44.9 13
11 51.1 Baron Control % 36.2 15
9.0 Quality Wins? 5.0
52.9 % of wins as Quality 41.7

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 37.103%
2 1 29.005%
1 2 18.613%
0 2 15.279%
(Series Win): 66.108%

This is another underdog bullet that I think is worth firing on. I won’t say Rogue Warriors have been a good team since switching to this lineup but they have been risk takers which gives them plenty of upset potential, particularly against the non-adult teams in the LPL a concept I’ve talked a lot about.

The wrinkle here is the it’s difficult to tell how JDG are going to respond to missing playoffs for the first time in… well since they’ve had the dumpling brothers shell of Zoom and Yagao. Are they going to be defeated and not give a damn about this series or is it more likely that they get up for a “get right”? Personally I don’t think it matters if JDG are “up” for this match or not because the way they play is incredibly sloppy and exactly the kind of style that can lose you games to inferior teams like RW.

Kill total overs are worth a look in this one as well even with the high total but I prefer just sticking with the sides.

 

My Picks:

Map Spread: RW +1.5 maps @ -143 (1.43 units)

Moneyline: RW +206 (0.5 units)

Map Spread: RW -1.5 maps @ +494 (0.25 units)

 


LCK Summer 2021

Week Nine – Day Two

 

 

DRX +169 (+1.5 maps @ -179, -1.5 @ +416)

vs

KT Rolster -204 (-1.5 maps @ +139, +1.5 @ -667)

 

Map Moneyline: DRX +142 / KT -182

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -111 / under -118)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -106 / -4.5 @ -122

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +105 / under -137)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +133 / -170 (map), +169 / -203 (series), -202 / +156 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play:  none

Trends
KT as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) DRX as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 3 2 -159 Matches as Underdogs 2 12 +314
Against Map Spread 2 3 +196 Against Map Spread 6 8 -46
Against Kill Spread 8 5 3.1 Against Kill Spread 16 18 +6
Kill Totals 8 5 23.30 Kill Totals 19 15 22.86
Team Kill Totals 8 5 12.30 Team Kill Totals 14 20 8.57
Game Time Totals 5 8 33.0 Game Time Totals 16 18 32.43
Dragons over 4.5 6 7 Dragons over 4.5 13 21
Towers over 11.5 5 8 Towers over 11.5 17 16

 

League Rank KT Tale of the Tape DRX League Rank
8.0 -247.0 Gold Diff @ 10 min -444.4 9.0
9.0 -478.6 Gold Diff @ 15 min -401.6 8.0
8.0 -377.6 Gold Diff @ 20 min -737.3 9.0
3.6 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -22.8
8.0 -14.9 Gold Diff / min first 20 -74.4 10.0
9.0 -191.5 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -485.7 10.0
7.0 1752.0 Gold /min (GPM) 1687.7 10.0
-18.4 Gold / min vs Avg -82.7
8.0 -48.3 Gold Diff / min -199.4 10.0
9.0 -0.7 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.8 10.0
9.0 1589.2 Kill Agnostic GPM 1571.6 10.0
8.0 -29.8 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -112.3 10.0
2.0 1948.2 GPM in wins 1881.5 9.0
5.0 324.7 Gold Diff per min in wins 243.5 10.0
7.0 1602.6 GPM in losses 1632.4 2.0
9.0 -332.4 Gold Diff per min in losses -326.0 8.0
-48.0 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -199.2
2.0 29.2 Win-Adjusted GPM -37.5 9.0
5.0 25.7 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -55.4 10.0
8.0 46.8 Dragon Control % 34.6 10.0
7.0 45.8 Herald Control % 40.6 8.0
6.0 50.0 Baron Control % 26.8 10.0
11.0 Quality Wins? 1.0
68.8 % of wins as Quality 12.5

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 36.080%
2 1 28.816%
1 2 19.157%
0 2 15.946%
(Series Win): 64.896%

With Brion losing this morning KT remain alive in the playoff hunt although they’re going to have to have quite the streak and a little bit of luck to get there. DRX are coming off of a stunning upset win over Afreeca, their best series of the Summer season by far. Was it a flash in the pan or improvement just a little too late in the season? I lean toward the former. I’m still not buying this team and this is a must win for KT Rolster.

I’m going to play the first map trend angles on this one, especially because of how critical it is for KT’s playoff hopes. Expecting a “by the book” plan. Other than that, I make this right on market.

My Picks:

Kill Total (alt): Map 1 UNDER 22.5 @ +104 (1 unit)

Time Total: Map 1 OVER 33:00 @ +105 (1 unit)

 


 

Gen.G +120 (+1.5 maps @ -238, -1.5 @ +330)

vs

T1 -145 (-1.5 maps @ +182, +1.5 @ -476)

 

Map Moneyline: GEG +117 / T1 -149

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -123 / under -105)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -123 / -4.5 @ -105

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -115 / under -114)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -111 / -114 (map), -108 / -112 (series), -347 / +254 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play:  Gen.G +1.5 maps, series moneyline, and -1.5 maps (moderate-light)

Trends
T1 as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) GEG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 7 5 -348 Matches as Underdogs 0 0
Against Map Spread 4 8 +43 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 12 17 5.8 Against Kill Spread 0 0
Kill Totals 9 20 23.17 Kill Totals 0 0
Team Kill Totals 11 18 13.67 Team Kill Totals 0 0
Game Time Totals 12 17 32.6 Game Time Totals 0 0
Dragons over 4.5 12 17 Dragons over 4.5 0 0
Towers over 11.5 16 13 Towers over 11.5 0 0

 

League Rank T1 Tale of the Tape GEG League Rank
1.0 583.1 Gold Diff @ 10 min 274.1 3.0
1.0 1028.3 Gold Diff @ 15 min 261.7 2.0
1.0 1051.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min -649.0 5.0
58.6 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 12.4
1.0 71.4 Gold Diff / min first 20 17.6 2.0
2.0 171.0 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 347.6 1.0
3.0 1817.9 Gold /min (GPM) 1824.4 1.0
47.5 Gold / min vs Avg 54.0
3.0 93.3 Gold Diff / min 110.8 1.0
3.0 1.4 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.5 1.0
1.0 1658.0 Kill Agnostic GPM 1636.4 2.0
2.0 62.7 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 59.2 3.0
7.0 1915.9 GPM in wins 1946.7 3.0
4.0 324.8 Gold Diff per min in wins 329.4 3.0
1.0 1689.4 GPM in losses 1632.1 3.0
1.0 -210.5 Gold Diff per min in losses -232.7 2.0
93.5 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 111.1
7.0 -3.1 Win-Adjusted GPM 27.8 3.0
4.0 25.8 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 30.5 3.0
7.0 48.0 Dragon Control % 56.5 2.0
6.0 52.8 Herald Control % 39.4 10.0
3.0 55.6 Baron Control % 59.6 2.0
12.0 Quality Wins? 12.0
57.1 % of wins as Quality 54.5

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 25.302%
2 1 25.150%
1 2 24.849%
0 2 24.700%
(Series Win): 50.451%

The model likes a light play on Gen.G here basically making this match a 50/50. Keep in mind that the model does factor in an weight recent trending performance into its evaluation so even with T1 looking better and Gen.G struggling of late it still makes this close to a 50/50.

I’m not going to make a play on the side here but I do think T1 have been playing better overall League of Legends at the moment. They’ve been a more well-rounded team this season and their underlying metrics suggest that this team should be significantly better than the record they have this season. Gen.G have been a bit too linear for my taste which is bizarre considering how versatile this team was over the past 18 months.

Expect this to be a playoff atmosphere match. The LCK doesn’t typically “mail in” these kinds of games and the teams tend to treat them like a series warm up. There’s a chance we see these two clash again in the playoffs so there might be a little gamesmanship in the draft with showing weird picks but other than that expect a straight up match here even with both teams locked for playoffs now.

I’d lean toward the T1 moneyline here but I’m not going to make any plays in this one. I was going to play the map one angles but overs were suggested for kills by the model and under time total as well plus these numbers are fairly juicy so I’m just going to pass altogether and watch this one with some popcorn. Should be a great match.

My Picks:

no wagers

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and you can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

 

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