Thursday, August 12th Recap

 

Afreeca vs Hanwha Life (Net: +2.8 units)

KT Rolster vs Liiv Sandbox (Net: +2.59 units)

 

Suning vs LNG Esports (Net: -9.3 units)

 

Immortals vs Dignitas (Net: -5.06 units, -2.0 units live)

 

 

LPL Net Total: -9.3 units

LCK Net Total: +5.39 units

LCS Net Total: -7.06 units

 

Daily Net Total: -10.97 units

 

Rough one today.

 

 

LPL Summer 2021

Playoffs – Lower Bracket – Round One

 

#7 Team WE -263 (-1.5 maps @ -128, -2.5 @ +246, +1.5 @ -588)

vs

#10 OMG +214 (+1.5 maps @ +101, +2.5 @ -333, -1.5 @ +392, -2.5 @ +1028)

 

Map Moneyline: WE -196 / OMG +153

Maps Total: 3.5 maps (over -233 / under +178), 4.5 maps (over +210 / under -278)

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -112 / under -116)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -108 / +6.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -104 / under -125)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -171 / +135 (map), -243 / +199 (series), -120 / +100 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play:  none

Starters:

WE – Breathe, Beishang, Shanks, Elk, Missing

OMG – New, AKi, Creme, Able, COLD

Trends
WE as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) OMG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 7 2 -713 Matches as Underdogs 5 7 +319
Against Map Spread 4 5 +2 Against Map Spread 6 6 -48
Against Kill Spread 14 9 6.5 Against Kill Spread 14 14 +7
Kill Totals 14 9 25.72 Kill Totals 12 16 25.67
Team Kill Totals 13 10 15.61 Team Kill Totals 15 13 9.58
Game Time Totals 13 10 30.8 Game Time Totals 12 16 30.33
Dragons over 4.5 10 13 Dragons over 4.5 7 21
Towers over 11.5 13 10 Towers over 11.5 10 18

 

 

 

League Rank WE Tale of the Tape OMG League Rank
14 -438.1 Gold Diff @ 10 min -251.9 10
8 -150.6 Gold Diff @ 15 min -356.1 11
10 -312.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min -300.0 9
21.3 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -40.9
7 47.6 Gold Diff / min first 20 -46.8 14
10 286.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -79.8 15
7 1811.5 Gold /min (GPM) 1743.3 13
20.8 Gold / min vs Avg -47.4
8 57.5 Gold Diff / min -79.8 13
8 0.8 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -1.1 13
9 1601.1 Kill Agnostic GPM 1562.3 14
8 27.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -57.9 13
9 1943.4 GPM in wins 1896.4 16
7 339.9 Gold Diff per min in wins 267.0 16
8 1632.9 GPM in losses 1581.7 17
9 -324.6 Gold Diff per min in losses -445.8 17
61.8 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -75.5
9 -7.3 Win-Adjusted GPM -54.4 16
7 17.2 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -55.7 16
12 47.5 Dragon Control % 53.3 5
2 58.8 Herald Control % 49.3 10
7 54.3 Baron Control % 54.8 6
12.0 Quality Wins? 7.0
52.2 % of wins as Quality 36.8

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
3 1 26.083%
3 0 21.873%
3 2 20.735%
2 3 13.679%
1 3 11.351%
0 3 6.280%
(Series Win): 68.691%

 

 

OMG won the regular season matchup 2-1 in week four after getting smashed in game one.

Quantitative Analysis:

LPL Team Ratings
Team Power # Rank
TOP 1.316424493 1
FunPlus 1.252600806 2
EDG 1.015657068 3
Vici 0.6533803157 4
BiliBili 0.6122738037 5
Royal Never GU 0.5669463523 6
WE 0.2312649497 7
Suning 0.1420244022 8
LNG 0.1391286773 9
Invictus 0.0682173188 10
OMG -0.2857246274 11
JDG -0.4105627663 12
LGD -0.6964848954 13
Rogue Warriors -0.8306226 14
eStar -0.9515869855 15
Dominus -0.9631191266 16
Victory Five -1.859817186 17

 

What’s interesting about this matchup is that when you look at the model’s interpretation of this match that it makes this right on market and thusly a “no play” series mostly on the basis that WE aren’t as good as public perception. They rank 7th in the league in the standings and 7th in the model’s rating system in a tier with LNG, Suning, Invictus, and slightly below those OMG and quite a big distance from the RNGs, RareAtom’s, and BiliBili’s who are a cut below the top three. Keep in mind that the model weights trending performance and WE were absolutely smoked by RNG and TOP in four of their final five games after an extended winning streak where they won 11 out of 12 including a 2-0 over EDG.

In other words the model’s interpretation of this isn’t that OMG are underrated as much as WE are overrated by the market and this has been a consistent theme over the course of the Summer with their pricing compared to performance.

Here’s the thing though. OMG are like a worse version of Nongshim in the LCK, a much improved team but one where the delta between actual performance level and their results is massive. The fact of the matter is that, statistically, OMG are a very weak team that excel at one thing, controlling big 5v5 fights at dragon and baron.

Let’s take this a step further and look at these two filtering out the non-playoff teams.

League Rank WE Tale of the Tape OMG League Rank
13 -486.5 Gold Diff @ 10 min -1143.3 16
10 -272.9 Gold Diff @ 15 min -2182.6 17
9 150.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -2662.5 17
22.2 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -69.0
7 11.3 Gold Diff / min first 20 -140.0 15
13 120.4 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -304.7 17
12 1744.3 Gold /min (GPM) 1652.2 16
-37.0 Gold / min vs Avg -129.2
12 -56.2 Gold Diff / min -304.7 16
12 -0.8 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -4.2 16
13 1553.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1498.8 17
12 -45.7 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -194.4 16
14 1906.7 GPM in wins 1873.6 17
14 275.2 Gold Diff per min in wins 144.2 17
12 1606.9 GPM in losses 1583.0 17
11 -336.5 Gold Diff per min in losses -445.0 17
-31.9 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -280.5
14 -40.5 Win-Adjusted GPM -73.6 17
14 -36.5 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -167.4 17
7 50.9 Dragon Control % 41.7 15
9 50.0 Herald Control % 29.3 17
12 44.0 Baron Control % 34.8 15
3.0 Quality Wins? 1.0
27.3 % of wins as Quality 20.0

As you can see, when we apply this criteria both teams take noticeable steps backward, OMG so much so that, despite their series of “upset” wins early on this season, their overall performance against higher quality teams was quite literally some of the worst in the league.

Below is the projected series outcome with the filter applied.

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
3 0 33.576%
3 1 30.718%
3 2 18.736%
2 3 8.221%
1 3 5.914%
0 3 2.836%
(Series Win): 83.030%

Team WE have a strong edge on the market price in this version.

Conclusion: Market price is fair for the season “by the numbers” maybe a slight edge to Team WE because of how poorly OMG performed against higher quality teams this season if you look at the data and not the results.

 

Qualitative Analysis:

I mentioned above that OMG are a lot like Nongshim in that there is a huge gap between their actual results and their performance measures. A big part of the reason for this is critical outplays in high leverage situations primarily from Creme and COLD who did most of the heavy lifting for this team with game ending plays on a number of occasions this season. While this is worth considering, the fact of the matter is that relying on outplays to bail you out of poor fundamentals isn’t the way you want to position yourself in a game of League of Legends. It’s flashy and fun to watch but you don’t want to be playing from behind the vast majority of the time.

This leaves us with the challenge of evaluating how much weight to put on this “clutch” factor.

Team WE have been a team that completely stomps bottom tier teams and tends to struggle against the better teams in general. The vast majority of their statistical performance strengths as we see when filtering above is from doing just that. If you consider OMG a “not good” team I could honestly see WE as a slam dunk in this position. I’m not sure you can take that leap though.

WE have been the better team from a qualitative standpoint but they have their flaws. Their decision making is very suspect at times and for lack of better terms they just do really dumb things from time to time regardless of the opponent. They’re absolutely deserving favorites here and OMG are highly fraudulent but I simply don’t trust Team WE to sweep or dominate this series wire-to-wire. Their decision making is too poor.

With this in mind I’m going to make a heavy play on the moneyline here but not the map spreads. I think WE will probably beat themselves in one or more of these games via sloppy setup at a neutral or something along those lines and punt one as they’re prone to do. OMG also tend to steal games with some degree of consistency, not that you want to rely on that.

Conclusion: Team WE much better team overall but still very flawed in their approach and sloppy. Don’t trust them to sweep but they should win this series more often than the market price.

 

 

Derivatives and Other Markets:

There’s nothing worth playing in the kill or time totals on this one but I do like the under dragons a lot in this matchup. As you can see, OMG have been a dead nut under team in that aspect with 75% of their games as underdogs coming in under the total.

I also like the OMG first dragon and WE first herald combination quite a bit here. OMG first blood is worth looking at too but I prefer the dragons/herald combo.

Lot of prop plays in this one as these are two very clearly defined teams in terms of how they play out their early game scripts. I’d expect both get it their way.

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: Team WE -263 (5.26 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -133 (1.33 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -141 (1.41 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -145 (1.45 units)

Prop: Map 4 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -141 (1.41 units)

Prop: Map 5 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -141 (1.41 units)

Prop: Map 1 WE first herald @ -137 (1.37 units)

Prop: Map 2 WE first herald @ -137 (1.37 units)

Prop: Map 3 WE first herald @ -137 (1.37 units)

Prop: Map 4 WE first herald @ -137 (1.37 units)

Prop: Map 5 WE first herald @ -137 (1.37 units)

Prop: Map 1 OMG first dragon @ -120 (1.2 units)

Prop: Map 2 OMG first dragon @ -115 (1.15 units)

Prop: Map 3 OMG first dragon @ -115 (1.15 units)

Prop: Map 4 OMG first dragon @ -115 (1.15 units)

Prop: Map 5 OMG first dragon @ -115 (1.15 units)

 


LCK Summer 2021

Week Ten – Day Two

 

Gen.G -345 (-1.5 maps @ -103, +1.5 @ -1429)

vs

Fredit Brion +274 (+1.5 maps @ -123, -1.5 @ +671)

 

Map Moneyline: GEG -256 / BRO +193

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -123 / under -105)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -110 / +6.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -132 / under +101)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -156 / +122 (map), -177 / +148 (series), +174 / -227 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play:  Brion series moneyline, +1.5 maps, and -1.5 maps (very strong)

Trends
GEG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) BRO as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 10 4 -378 Matches as Underdogs 4 11 +248
Against Map Spread 4 10 +0 Against Map Spread 12 3 -118
Against Kill Spread 17 19 6.4 Against Kill Spread 22 17 +6
Kill Totals 18 18 23.14 Kill Totals 13 26 22.83
Team Kill Totals 19 17 14.14 Team Kill Totals 19 20 8.70
Game Time Totals 20 16 32.2 Game Time Totals 18 21 32.47
Dragons over 4.5 20 16 Dragons over 4.5 24 15
Towers over 11.5 17 19 Towers over 11.5 17 22

 

League Rank GEG Tale of the Tape BRO League Rank
10.0 -433.5 Gold Diff @ 10 min -173.1 7.0
10.0 -1046.6 Gold Diff @ 15 min -553.3 8.0
10.0 -889.9 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1106.9 8.0
-2.5 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -60.6
7.0 -9.4 Gold Diff / min first 20 -35.8 9.0
1.0 292.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -95.0 7.0
3.0 1805.5 Gold /min (GPM) 1728.3 9.0
35.8 Gold / min vs Avg -41.4
3.0 78.5 Gold Diff / min -51.6 8.0
3.0 1.1 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.8 8.0
4.0 1622.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1593.2 9.0
3.0 37.3 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -45.3 9.0
2.0 1947.6 GPM in wins 1924.1 5.0
3.0 333.0 Gold Diff per min in wins 290.1 6.0
5.0 1624.0 GPM in losses 1585.2 10.0
2.0 -246.6 Gold Diff per min in losses -301.3 5.0
78.8 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -51.4
2.0 31.0 Win-Adjusted GPM 7.5 5.0
3.0 39.0 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -4.0 6.0
1.0 57.9 Dragon Control % 56.8 2.0
9.0 40.7 Herald Control % 39.8 10.0
3.0 54.4 Baron Control % 40.4 8.0
13.0 Quality Wins? 10.0
56.5 % of wins as Quality 40.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 33.568%
2 1 28.239%
1 2 20.501%
0 2 17.692%
(Series Win): 61.807%

There’s a lot going on in this one.

First, Brion are eliminated and Gen.G are battling for seeding. Second, Gen.G have been struggling mightily in the past few weeks but admittedly they’ve had to face Sandbox, Afreeca, T1, and DAMWON for four of their past five matchups which is arguably the other top five teams. Third, their linear approach to the game this season has been identified and punished by a lot of teams. Fourth, this “feels” like a “get right” spot going into playoffs.

I know that last one is a bit more of a gut handicap but there is part art and science to handicapping at times. This team is much better than this number. Do I think they’re live to win the split in the form they’ve shown recently? Probably not, but these numbers are all weighting recent performance which has primarily been against strong opponents and Gen.G have generally stomped the middle and bottom of the table teams because they just have significantly better players.

Brion are a team that “play up” but I’m backing Gen.G in the “get right” spot here. It’s a bit of a leap of faith but this is exactly what the doctor ordered to get back on track and build confidence for playoffs. This number is way too rich but I’m passing on the Brion sides.

I’ll be playing the map one angles and the Brion first dragon, plays that have been very profitable this season.

 

My Picks:

Kill Total (alt): Map 1 UNDER 22.5 @ -105 (1.5 units)

Time Total: Map 1 OVER 32:00 @ -132 (1.32 units)

Prop: Map 1 Brion first dragon @ -114 (1.14 units)

Prop: Map 2 Brion first dragon @ -106 (1.06 units)

 

 


Nongshim RedForce -625 (-1.5 maps @ -159)

vs

DRX +449 (+1.5 maps @ +124, -1.5 @ +1000)

 

Map Moneyline: NS -417 / DRX +298

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -114 / under -115)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -122 / +7.5 @ -108

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 7.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -156 / under +120)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -283 / +213 (map), -450 / +343 (series), -115 / -111 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play:  DRX +1.5 maps (moderate), series moneyline and -1.5 (light)

Trends
NS as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) DRX as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 7 4 -200 Matches as Underdogs 2 14 +323
Against Map Spread 2 9 +161 Against Map Spread 7 9 -41
Against Kill Spread 12 17 4.0 Against Kill Spread 19 20 +6
Kill Totals 13 16 23.41 Kill Totals 22 17 22.94
Team Kill Totals 13 16 12.95 Team Kill Totals 17 22 8.56
Game Time Totals 18 11 32.9 Game Time Totals 20 19 32.44
Dragons over 4.5 18 11 Dragons over 4.5 17 22
Towers over 11.5 11 17 Towers over 11.5 21 17

 

League Rank NS Tale of the Tape DRX League Rank
9.0 -386.4 Gold Diff @ 10 min -63.0 5.0
6.0 -233.3 Gold Diff @ 15 min -425.3 7.0
6.0 -30.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min -30.6 9.0
-31.6 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -17.6
5.0 2.9 Gold Diff / min first 20 -68.3 10.0
4.0 108.9 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -474.4 10.0
5.0 1774.7 Gold /min (GPM) 1694.8 10.0
5.0 Gold / min vs Avg -74.9
4.0 36.1 Gold Diff / min -194.5 10.0
4.0 0.5 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.7 10.0
6.0 1606.8 Kill Agnostic GPM 1577.8 10.0
5.0 10.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -109.4 10.0
8.0 1889.9 GPM in wins 1882.3 9.0
9.0 254.0 Gold Diff per min in wins 223.6 10.0
7.0 1605.3 GPM in losses 1642.0 2.0
4.0 -284.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -312.1 6.0
36.4 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -194.3
8.0 -26.7 Win-Adjusted GPM -34.3 9.0
9.0 -40.1 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -70.4 10.0
5.0 51.9 Dragon Control % 35.7 10.0
5.0 53.6 Herald Control % 44.3 7.0
5.0 53.6 Baron Control % 28.6 10.0
8.0 Quality Wins? 1.0
42.1 % of wins as Quality 11.1

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 50.373%
2 1 29.243%
1 2 11.959%
0 2 8.425%
(Series Win): 79.616%

 

This is just too big a price for me not to get involved with DRX. I know DRX are awful but Nongshim are also tremendously overrated by the market based on the results they’ve had this season. Rather than playing the map spread I’m going to take the game one angles I’ve been playing and add the underdog kill spread which is also profitable (when 6.5 or greater) in game one situation.

 

My Picks:

Kill Total (alt): Map 1 UNDER 22.5 @ +108 (1.5 units)

Time Total: Map 1 OVER 32:00 @ -156 (1.56 units)

Kill Spread: Map 1 DRX +7.5 kills @ -108 (1.08 units)

 


 

LEC Playoffs

Round One – Day One

 

LEC AFter Summer Reg Season
Team Power # Rank
ROG 1.196924485 1
FNC 0.9979540029 2
MAD 0.433406079 3
MSF 0.3973700455 4
G2 0.2932292256 5
VIT 0.1991423404 6
XL -0.1089928507 7
AST -0.9048088267 8
SK -1.023302559 9
S04 -1.499908093 10

 

Above are the model power ratings for the LEC with the regular season complete.


 

 

#1 Rogue -312 (-1.5 maps @ -152, -2.5 @ +201, +1.5 @ -714)

vs

#4 Misfits Gaming +251 (+1.5 maps @ +119, +2.5 @ -270, -1.5 @ +443, -2.5 @ +1050)

 

Map Totals: 3.5 maps (over -196 / under +152), 4.5 maps (over +232 / under -312)

Map Moneyline: ROG -217 / MSF +167

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -105 / under -123)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -114 / +5.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -116 / under -124)(Pinnacle)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -181 / +141 (map), -269 / +219 (series), -120 / -110 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play:  none

 

Trends
ROG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) MSF as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 12 5 -305 Matches as Underdogs 4 4 +76
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 8 9 6.1 Against Kill Spread 5 3 +4
Kill Totals 9 8 25.91 Kill Totals 4 4 26.88
Team Kill Totals 9 8 15.26 Team Kill Totals 4 4 11.88
Game Time Totals 8 9 31.6 Game Time Totals 4 4 32.13
Dragons over 4.5 8 9 Dragons over 4.5 6 2
Towers over 11.5 11 6 Towers over 11.5 4 4

 

 

League Rank ROG Tale of the Tape MSF League Rank
2.0 1142.3 Gold Diff @ 10 min -248.4 7.0
1.0 2963.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min -64.6 6.0
1.0 3017.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min 108.9 7.0
123.1 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 1.4
1.0 204.2 Gold Diff / min first 20 6.9 6.0
1.0 331.6 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 232.1 3.0
1.0 1906.2 Gold /min (GPM) 1820.8 5.0
115.7 Gold / min vs Avg 30.3
1.0 210.6 Gold Diff / min 83.1 5.0
1.0 2.9 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.2 5.0
1.0 1691.3 Kill Agnostic GPM 1622.7 5.0
1.0 134.8 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 43.0 5.0
3.0 1984.6 GPM in wins 1885.2 9.0
2.0 374.6 Gold Diff per min in wins 239.1 8.0
3.0 1702.4 GPM in losses 1692.1 4.0
2.0 -215.7 Gold Diff per min in losses -228.8 5.0
210.6 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 83.1
3.0 54.3 Win-Adjusted GPM -45.1 9.0
2.0 86.9 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -48.7 8.0
5.0 55.1 Dragon Control % 56.6 3.0
2.0 63.9 Herald Control % 58.3 4.0
4.0 56.0 Baron Control % 56.0 4.0
10.0 Quality Wins? 5.0
76.9 % of wins as Quality 41.7

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
wins Losses Probability
3 1 26.851%
3 0 23.232%
3 2 20.689%
2 3 12.965%
1 3 10.545%
0 3 5.718%
(Series Win): 70.772%

 

 

Rogue won the head-to-head 2-0 during Summer and 2-0 during Spring for the sweep on the season.

 

Quantitative Analysis:

Strictly looking at the numbers, Rogue and Fnatic were far and away the best teams in the LEC this season even with a bit of a shaky start from Rogue early in the split. They have one of the highest kill agnostic gold per minute in the world (behind only Evil Geniuses) and one of the highest agnostic differentials as well. Rogue’s weakest aspect of their game is dragon and baron control which has been a point of discussion and many memes for their “20-30 minute throw zone.”

The model rates this closer than I do primarily because Misfits do have strong objective control numbers but if you look at the adjusted and more advanced statistics Rogue are far and away a better team.

Conclusion: Market price is fair but Rogue advanced metrics significantly stronger.

 

Qualitative Analysis:

I am more bullish on this Misfits team than anybody I know and I was an early adopter but they’re just outclassed here. Misfits are good enough and introduce enough variance that I could see them taking a game or two in this series but Rogue are the side here against the model’s suggestion of a no bet. The opening numbers were closer to -400 and at those it was maybe worth a Misfits wager but this is cooled off enough and I’m more bullish on Rogue than the model is.

Conclusion: Number has come down significantly (as it should have) but I like Rogue to win 3-1 or 3-0. Misfits just outclassed at every position.

 

Derivatives and other markets:

 

ROG League Average MSF
Combined Kills / game 25.559 27.58 27.611
Combined Kills / min 0.786 0.85 0.819
Kills per win 18.606 17.21 15.500
Kills per loss 10.488 10.12 13.000
Deaths per win 7.08 8.95 7.92
Deaths per loss 19.60 18.24 20.00
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 10.38 8.76 7.83
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 9.20 8.87 7.17
Combined Avg Kills / game 26.585
Time-Implied Total 26.198
Book Odds Weighted 29.619
Rating Weighted 29.441
Underdog Win Projection 25.988
“Gelati” Total Projection 27.408
Volatility Rating 0.37546 0.3009 0.37703

 

Rogue MAD
Average Game Time 32.22 33.09
Avg Game Time (in wins) 31.71 32.35
Avg Game Time (in losses) 33.557 34.581
Combined Avg Game Time 32.657
Book Odds Weighted 33.08
Rating Odds Weighted 33.07
Volatility Rating 0.18811 0.15152 0.14300
% of Games over Time Total 44.44444 52.77778 61.11111

Kill and time totals are mostly on market so pass there. You could play Misfits first props as they’ve been a good first objective team and there are a few nice numbers but Rogue are equally strong in those and the prices aren’t good enough for me.

My favorite derivative play in this series is the OVER 12.5 towers. Since patch 11.13 the over 12.5 towers has hit 30 out of 55 games and we’re getting plus money in a playoff series which should, presumably, be a more competitive and closer match when you consider the multiple weeks of preparation time.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Rogue -312 (6.24 units)

Map Spread: Rogue -1.5 maps @ -152 (1.52 units)

Prop: Map 1 OVER 12.5 towers @ +164 (1 units)

Prop: Map 2 OVER 12.5 towers @ +180 (1 units)

Prop: Map 3 OVER 12.5 towers @ +180 (1 units)

Prop: Map 4 OVER 12.5 towers 2 +180 (1 units)

Prop: Map 5 OVER 12.5 towers 2 +180 (1 units)

 

 


 

LCS Playoffs

Losers’ Bracket – Round One – Day Four

 

 

 #8 Golden Guardians +420 (+2.5 maps @ -169, +1.5 @ +188, -1.5 @ +751, -2.5 @ +1700)

vs

#4 Cloud 9 -588 (-1.5 maps @ -250, -2.5 @ +133, +1.5 @ -1667)

 

Map Totals: 3.5 maps (over -147 / under +115), 4.5 maps (over +287 / under -400)

Map Moneyline: GGS +239 / C9 -323

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -123 / under -105)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -123 / -7.5 @ -105

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -123 / under -105)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +105 / -133 (map), +124 / -151 (series), -170 / +145 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play:  GGS all ways (very strong)

Trends
C9 as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) GGS as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 13 11 -315 Matches as Underdogs 10 15 +224
Against Map Spread 0 1 +133 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 13 14 5.8 Against Kill Spread 15 10 +6
Kill Totals 10 17 24.67 Kill Totals 19 6 24.98
Team Kill Totals 14 13 14.67 Team Kill Totals 18 7 9.18
Game Time Totals 13 14 31.2 Game Time Totals 14 11 31.24
Dragons over 4.5 13 14 Dragons over 4.5 13 12
Towers over 11.5 17 10 Towers over 11.5 18 7

 

League Rank C9 Tale of the Tape GGS League Rank
4 -104.9 Gold Diff @ 10 min -491.2 7
8 -1040.9 Gold Diff @ 15 min 2.9 5
7 -1372.6 Gold Diff @ 20 min -86.9 5
-153.7 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 43.3
5 22.3 Gold Diff / min first 20 -14.2 6
1 282.6 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -70.7 7
2 1864.8 Gold /min (GPM) 1790.0 5
76.5 Gold / min vs Avg 1.8
4 96.1 Gold Diff / min -79.0 8
4 1.3 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -1.0 7
2 1669.2 Kill Agnostic GPM 1614.8 6
4 53.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -32.6 6
6 1616.2 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1647.5 3
1 2068.7 GPM in wins 1909.5 8
1 417.3 Gold Diff per min in wins 281.7 7
4 1647.3 GPM in losses 1707.9 1
3 -246.6 Gold Diff per min in losses -327.0 6
96.5 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -78.6
1 125.3 Win-Adjusted GPM -33.9 8
1 114.3 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -21.4 7
4 53.5 Dragon Control % 58.4 1
6 48.4 Herald Control % 59.6 2
4 53.5 Baron Control % 38.9 9
14.0 Quality Wins? 4.0
87.5 % of wins as Quality 36.4

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
3 1 21.860%
3 2 20.034%
2 3 16.945%
3 0 15.902%
1 3 15.638%
0 3 9.622%
(Series Win): 57.796%

 

 

Cloud 9 own the head-to-head 4-1.

 

Quantitative Analysis:

It might come as a surprise to a lot of people just how closely these two teams are matched from a statistical performance perspective but the proof is in the pudding. The fact of the matter is that Cloud 9 have not performed particularly well in the model all season long and their last series did them no favors either. Even if we take away the Liquid series where C9 were completely smashed, Golden Guardians are still nearly a 20% edge on market price here.

Conclusion: Price is simply too large, massive edge on market price for the underdogs.

 

Qualitative Analysis:

John and I discussed this on The Gold Card Podcast quite a bit this week but this is such an incredible situational spot for Golden Guardians. I’m not a narrative driven handicapper, it just gets you in trouble more often than not but there is a lot going on here. Cloud 9 got absolutely smoked in their last series and on the last day of the season which can be a bit of a shock to the system. They hadn’t been performing as well as expected overall this season although they were getting it together before this.

I’m going to be making a play on the underdogs here for a few reasons.

First, Golden Guardians have an extra week of preparation time as well as a series from Liquid where they completely dissected Cloud 9 to study and learn from. This always favors underdogs.

Second, Cloud 9 have generally been a good but overrated team from a market perspective. Their prices are always inflated from legacy pricing and public sentiment. They’re not as good as their market price almost ever so fading them is often valuable.

Third, there is a TREMENDOUS amount of pressure on Cloud 9 here with their season now on the line. They spent a ridiculous amount of money to acquire Perkz and they’ve been very up and down this season and his individual performance, while still excellent, wasn’t the “dumpstering everybody in the league” level that everyone thought they were getting.

Fourth, they’re coming off of a BAD loss that could completely deflate their confidence while Golden Guardians are playing with house money. Nobody expects them to win. A team with nothing to lose can be extremely dangerous because you never know what to expect.

Fifth, Golden Guardians are not a bad team. by seasons’ end they were actually right about the league average team. The LCS has a clear top five and from the model’s perspective, GGS actually gatekept the rest of the league as they were a cut above the bottom half. They were consistently undervalued by the market and often a +EV play.

Sixth, Cloud 9 “choked” away their season last Summer and past ghosts can often haunt teams psychologically. A loss here and Cloud 9’s season is suddenly over as tragically as last years’. That’s a lot of pressure.

I think when you factor all of these points, the overwhelming amount of pressure on Cloud 9, the ghosts of 2020 Summer for them, Golden Guardians getting extra prep time and film advantage and playing with nothing to lose, and the fact that you have both an overrated and underrated team clashing here from a market perspective is the perfect storm for a huge upset. Do I actually think Golden Guardians are likely to win this series? Absolutely not but strictly looking at the numbers this is already a ridiculous price to put on this series and when you add to the mix all of the factors discussed above I think you have a very strong thesis for a massive upset from both a quantitative AND qualitative perspective.

This is a series where there’s a very real possibility that none of this comes into play and C9 just completely smash and you have to be ok with that happening but you just have so much working in your favor on the GGS side that it’s more than worth the shot at such long odds.

Conclusion: A ton of situational angles favoring GGS and working against Cloud 9 and a clash between overrated and underrated frequently leads to favorable pricing. I think GGS are live here.

 

Derivatives and other markets:

C9 League Average GGS
Combined Kills / game 23.878 25.17 29.050
Combined Kills / min 0.744 0.78 0.851
Kills per win 17.844 17.51 18.295
Kills per loss 10.08 8.79 10.56
Deaths per win 6.13 8.49 10.09
Deaths per loss 16.29 17.30 20.00
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 11.75 9.18 8.00
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 6.07 9.28 10.38
Combined Avg Kills / game 26.464
Time-Implied Total 25.917
Book Odds Weighted 28.3986
Rating Weighted 28.3937
Underdog Win Projection 28.3788
“Gelati” Total Projection 26.9249
Volatility Rating 0.34821 0.29169 0.21749

 

C9 GGS
Average Game Time 32.21 32.81
Avg Game Time (in wins) 30.40 33.70
Avg Game Time (in losses) 34.14 32.21
Combined Avg Game Time 32.51
Book Odds Weighted 32.03
Rating Odds Weighted 32.50
Volatility Rating 0.17968 0.1678 0.18836
% of Games over Time Total 54.83871 55.19713 55.55556

 

I love GGS first herald in this contest as well as the tower total overs. GGS have a 66.67% first herald rate to C9’s 35.48% and these two teams go over the 12.5 tower total in just shy of 44% of games compared to the market price of 40% and the overwhelming trends of tower total overs since Patch 11.13 also working in our favor.

My Picks:

Map Spread: GGS +2.5 maps @ -169 (3.38 units)

Map Spread: GGS +1.5 maps @ +190 (1 unit)

Moneyline: GGS +421 (0.5 units)

Map Spread: GGS -1.5 maps @ +760 (0.1 units)

Map Spread: GGS -2.5 maps @ +1700 (0.1 units)

Prop: Map 1 OVER 12.5 towers @ +146 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 OVER 12.5 towers @ +154 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 3 OVER 12.5 towers @ +154 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 4 OVER 12.5 towers @ +154 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 5 OVER 12.5 towers @ +154 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 GGS first herald @ +111 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 GGS first herald @ +111 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 3 GGS first herald @ +111 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 4 GGS first herald @ +111 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 5 GGS first herald @ +111 (1 unit)

 

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and you can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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