Thursday, April 1st Recap

 

T1 vs DRX (Net: +1.92 units)

This series is a classic example of what a little extra time can do for teams. DRX came out in game one with an interesting full-court press tempo composition, a completely new look for them. T1 looked like they had turned the corner but nearly threw the game when DRX picked up a few kills as T1 tried to pick up the baron and managed to nearly turn this game around. In the end, T1’s scaling was just too strong.

Game two it was a flip-flop of roles with T1 being the early aggressor and DRX their prototypical scaling team fight look centered around Seraphine. T1 weren’t able to accrue a big enough lead and got outscaled in this one although they were still winning team fights against all odds even later in the game it just wasn’t enough.

Game three and four were much more in line with what I was thinking we’d see for this series with T1 going underneath the scaling looks from DRX and just running them over before their composition could come online.

There were some criticisms of T1’s drafting in this series but I didn’t really have a problem with their approach. The Nidalee+Sion with Seraphine up was a little bit of a weird one to me but other than that I liked most of what they were doing so I’m not entirely sure where all the hate is coming from other than typical champion biases. Maybe criticize the lack of Seraphine priority? I don’t know.

T1 took care of business. I’m not surprised DRX managed to get one, especially with T1 opting to go underneath in 3/4 of these games. It happens. I’d still rather that approach to be honest but to each their own.

Invictus vs RareAtom (Net: -2.59 units)

In some ways this series went exactly as I expected it to. In others it didn’t. I expected that we’d have a back-and-forth series but I just didn’t see it playing out in quite the fashion that it did in terms of HOW the games themselves went. Invictus bookended this series with tremendous throws in game one and five and it’s going to haunt them until next season.

I won’t go game-by-game for a full length breakdown because I like to keep these brief.

  • XUN had a tremendous series especially for a rookie but unfortunately had the eventual game-ending face-check in game five. Don’t remember him for this.
  • Wink was excellent and even busted out a Draven pick that I did not expect from an Invictus Gaming team that never plays around bottom lane. I absolutely loved the game plan in games four and five from IG to just leave TheShy on an island and let him do what he does best in isolation by pulling the jungler toward the bottom lane.
  • FoFo and Cube delivered in huge ways in this series despite iBoy having the eventual highlight reel plays in game five.
  • Dumb League of Legends loses you games.

I might do a VOD review of a few pieces of this series if I get the time to this weekend. Invictus probably should have won this series 3-1 or 3-2 but shot themselves in the foot on multiple occasions. You do that and you don’t deserve to win, straight up. RareAtom were their typical resilient selves but had their fair share of lowlights in this one as well. I wouldn’t have had a lot of faith in either of these teams taking down FPX in the next match and this somewhat cemented that. We’ll see where the numbers go.

 

Daily Net Total: -0.67 units (-2.1% ROI)

 

 

Last Week (March 22nd-28th):  +5.3355 units(+2.4% ROI)

 

 


 

LOL Pro League (China)

Spring Playoffs

Round 1 – Day 2

 

 

 

Suning Gaming -1000 (-1.5 maps @ -294, -2.5 @ +129, +1.5 @ -3333)

vs

LNG Esports +554 (+1.5 maps @ +225, +2.5 @ -167, -1.5 @ +1073, -2.5 @ +2600)

 

 

Map ML Price: SN -435 / LNG +307

Total Maps Played: 3.5 maps (over -152 / under +118), 4.5 maps (over +301 / under -435)

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -106 / under -122)

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -122 / +8.5 @ -108

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 7.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -114 / under -116)

 (Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

Suning Tale of the Tape LNG
-146.7 Gold Diff @ 10 min 328.7
37.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min 1032.4
-840.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min 1264.4
-40.3 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 6.2
34.6 Gold Diff / min first 20 3.8
571.0 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 361.5
1843.1 Gold /min (GPM) 1787.5
38.7 Gold / min vs Avg -16.9
124.4 Gold Diff / min -11.2
1.7 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.1
1635.4 Kill Agnostic GPM 1617.9
49.7 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -18.5
1941.2 GPM in wins 1971.1
318.3 Gold Diff per min in wins 393.4
1671.4 GPM in losses 1633.0
-214.9 Gold Diff per min in losses -351.9
122.4 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -13.1
-25.9 Win-Adjusted GPM 4.0
-13.2 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 61.9
53.9 Dragon Control % 50.3
58.1 Herald Control % 45.6
56.8 Baron Control % 37.0
10.0 Quality Wins? 10.0
47.6 % of wins as Quality 62.5

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

LNG every which way (VERY VERY strong)

 

 

Quantitative Analysis:

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
3 1 21.910%
3 2 20.050%
2 3 16.912%
3 0 15.962%
1 3 15.588%
0 3 9.579%
(Series Win): 57.921%

(Suning projected series win % via model)

 

Above is my model’s projected series outcome for Suning using the typical composite blend of trending and season long performance. Season long only is not much different. This is a clear and obvious windmill slam spot for LNG if one were to go strictly off of these numbers. However, LNG have won just a single series against a playoff team and it was against Invictus back in week one.

I went ahead and filtered out all of LNG’s games against non-playoff teams. Below is the filtered Tale of the Tape and series outcome projections.

Suning Tale of the Tape LNG
-146.7 Gold Diff @ 10 min -587.5
37.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1138.6
-840.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1117.3
-37.3 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -41.0
34.6 Gold Diff / min first 20 -114.4
571.0 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 118.4
1843.1 Gold /min (GPM) 1670.6
45.6 Gold / min vs Avg -126.9
124.4 Gold Diff / min -295.5
1.7 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -4.0
1635.4 Kill Agnostic GPM 1551.6
49.7 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -182.4
1941.2 GPM in wins 1901.7
318.3 Gold Diff per min in wins 257.3
1671.4 GPM in losses 1641.8
-214.9 Gold Diff per min in losses -364.6
139.2 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -280.8
-21.8 Win-Adjusted GPM -61.3
-5.2 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -66.2
53.9 Dragon Control % 39.8
58.1 Herald Control % 34.3
56.8 Baron Control % 11.1
10.0 Quality Wins? 1.0
47.6 % of wins as Quality 50.0

 

 

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
3 0 42.832%
3 1 31.636%
3 2 15.577%
2 3 5.088%
1 3 3.375%
0 3 1.492%
(Series Win): 90.045%

(Suning’s series outcomes with LNG vs non-playoff teams filtered out)

I don’t typically like “splits” in most team sport scenarios for a number of reasons (market already factors this in, sometimes noise not a signal, etc). We talked about this on The Gold Card Podcast this week. To me, if you’re going to do something like this there needs to be a stark and noticeable difference in a teams performance. That is, in fact, the case with LNG.

Now these numbers look abysmal, as most teams would if you were to look at just their performance against other playoff teams.  In fact, with the non-playoff teams filtered out, LNG are actually the second worst team in the league statistically speaking. Don’t worry folks, Rogue Warriors are still the worst! LNG simply do not perform well against the upper echelon but they’re also pretty clearly better than every other non-playoff team (maybe not when V5 is playing well). It’s an interesting situation, they’re a true “gatekeeper.”

It’s pretty clear that the market is factoring this concept in to some extent via an ELO or SOS model or something similar. With this “filtered” version of LNG most of these numbers are right on the market price. So the question becomes are LNG incapable of beating good teams or is this just an anomaly? Do we think with the extra week to prepare that they can finally punch up? And then the other part of the equation, where do Suning lie on this spectrum of good-to-elite teams? Are they deserving of their numbers?

This number leaves little to no room for error for the favorites.

Conclusion: If you believe the LNG can’t be good teams narrative this is a pass, if you take season long averages and composite trending+season-long this is a slam dunk LNG. Inconclusive (read below)

 

Qualitative Analysis:

The numbers tell a pretty bleak story here but is LNG really this bad against the good teams? Well, the short answer is yes. Outside of their opening match 2-0 over Invictus, LNG did not win a single game against a playoff team all season long. Let’s take a closer look at these matches.

vs Team WE (Week 3):

LNG were competitive in both of these games although the second ended up taking a sharp turn and the game ended up looking like a blowout. LNG picked up first blood in both. Game one was actually a bit of a slugfest but WE had a dragon stack win.

vs FunPlus (Week 5):

Game two was a close, competitive game that could have gone either way if not for FPX sneaking a very early baron to blow the game open. Game one was a decisive FPX win.

vs RareAtom (Week 5):

Both of these games were close, could have gone either way.

vs TOP (Week 5):

TOP completely obliterated LNG in this series.

vs RNG (Week 7):

Close game one blown open around baron. Game two similar but dragon stacked against and blown open around baron. Closer than box score, decent opening 15 in both.

vs EDG (Week 8):

Close game one, could have gone either way but EDG absolutely slammed their baron advantage into a lethal blow. Game two was a blowout start to finish.

vs JDG (Week 9):

Back-to-back blowout games.

vs Suning (Week 9):

LNG was actually winning both of these games fairly decisively. Game one ended because eventually Seraphine was just too overwhelming (Suning comp was pretty insane Jayce, Hec, Seraphine, Jinx, Alistar). LNG got aced at fourth drake and that blew the game open for Suning. Game two was another great start and snowball with LNG picking up two of the first three drakes and the first baron before this tragic sequence.

This series honestly could have been an LNG 2-0.

 

Some basic counting and we’ve got roughly 8 “competitive” games and I’ll add the two game against Suning as “probably should have won” so really 10 competitive games. They were only really blown out in six games.

The argument against LNG here is that, to quote the great Pat from The Esports Department Discord at some point “winners win.” A handful of throws, some blown open games around baron, maybe LNG are losing these for a reason and it’s they’re not good. It’s tough to argue against that if that’s the way you feel but I tend to be a believer in the building blocks. Failing to close games is a frustrating thing to watch if you’re backing LNG but this isn’t a situation like LGD or Rogue Warriors or OMG where they’re just never in the game to begin with in most cases. LNG have the foundation to take these games and honestly they should have 2-0’d Suning last week. I think it’s safe to say that this is at least partially outlier. I think it’s reasonable to have expected a handful of wins against the good teams even if they never took a series after week one this season.

I’ll be backing LNG here for a few reasons:

First, this number is gigantic and for as clean as Suning have been in wins, they’ve had a few really shaky games including their two against LNG that I’d say they were lucky to win. They’re cleaner relative to the Summer version but still not what I’d consider an elite team.

Second, LNG have been on the lower end of expected outcomes against good teams and at some point regression kicks in. This teams numbers against the good teams are fairly poor but the fact that they didn’t have any game wins at all in these scenarios I feel is an outlier given the quality of this team. We’ve seen much worse teams take games and series off of the good teams, they just happened to never get it done.

Third, extra preparation time tends to level the playing field more than most people think. This is a huge boon to big underdogs in general in any league.

Fourth, Suning’s win-adjusted economy metrics aren’t all that impressive although they are statistically the “toughest” losers in the LPL.

Fifth, the number has gotten out of hand. This is way WAY too much of an overreaction, in fact I’d argue it’s an underreaction to what LNG did last time out. LNG were only underdogs by this much (by map price) a single time this season and it was against JDG in week nine. In week nine against Suning the map price was SN -303 / LNG +222 and it’s now -435 / +307 after a match that LNG legitimately should have won 2-0? Get the hell out of here. This should be the same map moneyline price AT WORST.

Sixth, I’m not convinced Suning are as good as they’ve shown. While I was praising them a few weeks ago for cleaning up their act and LOOKING better than they did even at the World Championships, their underlying metrics tell a different story and I was perhaps a little overzealous in my characterization of them. Some review of the film revealed quite a few opponent follies. Suning rank 14th in gold per minute in wins and 9th in gold differential per minute in wins, 8th in kill-agnostic gold differential per minute, and 9th in win-adjusted gold differential per minute. They’re not actually that dominant. (these partially factor trending performance as well)

Seventh, nothing to lose/spoiler position. Admittedly this is a bit of a “gut” handicapping angle but LNG are going to get a MASSIVE boost of confidence if they can get a game here and get the proverbial monkey off of their back. They’re more than capable of taking a game and more in this series and they have to feel disrespected at this point. An opponent with nothing to lose can be a dangerous thing. If anything all of the “pressure” in this series is on Suning.

I’m all over LNG in this spot. I was all over them two weeks ago too. Bad number, positive regression potential, and a great showing against Suning two weeks ago.

Conclusion: LNG’s winless record against playoff teams (besides IG) is a bit of an outlier. This number has ballooned way WAY too far toward Suning when compared to when they played in week nine.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 25.514

Time-Implied: 23.841

Underdog Win: 26.969

“Gelati” Total Projection: 24.346 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 49.87% (SN 45.45% / LNG 54.29%)

Volatility Rating:  SN 0.37310 / LNG 0.29209 (League Avg: 0.3062)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

(alt) UNDER 24.5 @ -147 (light)

—-

Team Totals:

LNG team total OVER 7.5 @ -111 (VERY strong)

SN team total UNDER 15.5 @ -125 (moderate)

 

Suning League Average LNG
Combined Kills / game 25.287 26.19 21.229
Combined Kills / min 0.800 0.88 0.716
Kills per win 18.182 18.43 16.375
Kills per loss 10.594 8.82 6.888
Deaths per win 6.33 8.15 4.63
Deaths per loss 16.50 18.07 17.00
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 10.90 9.67 11.44
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 6.67 9.75 9.58

 

The above numbers are using the usual numbers but I went ahead and handicapped this using the filtered “LNG vs Playoff teams” version as well. This version much preferred the overs in both time and kills.

Suning League Average LNG
Combined Kills / game 25.287 26.38 24.458
Combined Kills / min 0.800 0.88 0.794
Kills per win 18.182 18.53 18.000
Kills per loss 10.594 8.83 7.031
Deaths per win 6.33 8.35 8.00
Deaths per loss 16.50 18.10 17.50
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 10.90 9.58 10.00
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 6.67 9.78 10.06

Your average LNG game against a playoff team is a ~24.5 kill loss in 31.465  minutes and a 26 kill win in 35.18 minutes. If we take a blended average with my other factors like odds, time projections, and the secret sauce we get a 25.485 kill projection which is more than a full kill above the previous total. Suning are a fairly low combined kill total team but this game total feels really low to me. I’ll be on the over.

I’ll be playing the kill spreads here despite the lack of numerical support for it because I think this series is legitimately going to be very competitive.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 31.452 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 31.4 / 31.7

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 47.27% (SN 54.545% / LNG 40%)

Volatility Rating: SN 0.16704 / LNG 0.13778 (League Avg: 0.16133)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

Suning LNG
Average Game Time 32.24 30.66
Avg Game Time (in wins) 30.34 29.28
Avg Game Time (in losses) 35.569 31.824

The above numbers are using the usual numbers but I went ahead and handicapped this using the filtered “LNG vs Playoff teams” version as well. This version much preferred the overs in both time and kills.

Suning LNG
Average Game Time 32.24 31.88
Avg Game Time (in wins) 30.34 35.18
Avg Game Time (in losses) 35.569 31.465

Slight value on the over here but I’ll be passing.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

LNG first tower @ +124 (VERY strong)

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -312 (strong)

LNG first herald @ +108 (moderate)

LNG first blood @ +116 (moderate)**

SN first blood @ -152 (miniscule)**

** denotes advantage in a category that the opponent is also strong in, must be considered

 

LNG’s strong first tower projection here its factoring in their full season. Again, if we use the filter they’re still landing first tower in half of their games against the playoff teams. Under this filter most of these other props lose a lot of their value although under 12.5 towers remains a decent play. I’ll have more than enough LNG exposure in this match but the first tower for them would be my choice here.

 

 

My Picks:

 

Map Spread: LNG +2.5 maps @ -167 (5.01 units)

Map Spread: LNG +1.5 maps @ +225 (1 unit)

Moneyline: LNG +554 (1 unit)

Prop: Exact score LNG 3-1 @ +1500 (0.25 units)

Prop: Exact score LNG 3-0 @ +2600 (0.25 units)

Kill Spread: Map 1 LNG +8.5 kills @ -109 (0.545 units)

Kill Spread: Map 2 LNG +8.5 kills @ -101 (0.505 units)

Kill Spread: Map 3 LNG +8.5 kills @ -109 (0.545 units)

Kill Spread: Map 4 LNG +8.5 kills @ -109 (0.545 units)

Kill Spread: Map 5 LNG +8.5 kills @ -116 (0.58 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 23.5 @ -105 (1.05 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 23.5 @ -115 (1.15 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 OVER 23.5 @ -115 (1.15 units)

Kill Total: Map 4 OVER 23.5 @ -115 (1.15 units)

Kill Total: Map 5 OVER 23.5 @ -115 (1.15 units)

 


LOL European Championship

Spring Playoffs

Losers’ Bracket Round 1 – Day 2

 

 

 

Fnatic -238 (-1.5 maps @ -103, -2.5 @ +289, +1.5 @ -526, +2.5 @ -2500)

vs

Schalke 04  +190 (+1.5 maps @ -125, +2.5 @ -417, -1.5 @ +362, -2.5 @ +900)

 

 

Map ML Price: FNC -179 / S04 +139

Total Maps Played: 3.5 maps (over -278 / under +206), 4.5 maps (over +180 / under -238)

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -119 / under -110)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -110 / +6.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -104 / under -125)

 (Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

FNC Tale of the Tape S04
767.7 Gold Diff @ 10 min 116.3
410.6 Gold Diff @ 15 min 156.4
-11.8 Gold Diff @ 20 min 350.6
72.9 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 8.7
38.1 Gold Diff / min first 20 -7.3
-26.6 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -68.8
1835.2 Gold /min (GPM) 1783.5
50.1 Gold / min vs Avg -1.6
26.5 Gold Diff / min -17.3
0.4 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.3
1602.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1628.5
31.7 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -1.7
1990.9 GPM in wins 1938.5
330.8 Gold Diff per min in wins 283.6
1648.4 GPM in losses 1641.5
-338.7 Gold Diff per min in losses -293.2
35.0 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -8.8
57.7 Win-Adjusted GPM 5.3
34.8 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -12.3
64.8 Dragon Control % 41.1
50.0 Herald Control % 51.1
59.4 Baron Control % 45.7
5.0 Quality Wins? 4.0
41.7 % of wins as Quality 36.4

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Fnatic series moneyline @ -238 (light)

 

Quantitative Analysis:

Statistically these teams are closer than many people would think and this is again using a composite blend of season-long and trending numbers. Fnatic’s flashy, highlight reel wins are good for #1 in gold per minute in wins but only 5th in gold differential per minute in wins (Schalke are not far behind them in 7th). The two are 5th and 7th respectively in win-adjusted gold differential per minute although there is a fairly big gap. Statistically speaking, Fnatic are the worst of the “elite” teams in the LEC grading #4 overall (not far ahead of Misfits) primarily off the back of their strong dragon and baron control rates.

Statistically, Schalke fill the “gatekeeper” role a clear cut above the rest of the field  in a similar role to Misfits. They’re not particularly strong or weak in any given area and are fairly well rounded. Their strongest advanced metric is their #4 ranked kill-agnostic gold per minute although they rank 6th (more or less tied with Misfits) in kill-agnostic gold differential per minute. They’re also fairly tough loseres with the 5th best gold differential per minute in losses.

This price is right on the money if you’re looking at team metrics. Fnatic’s explosive outlier wins definitely give a boost to their averages but overall they’ve been a fairly underwhelming team in most outings with less than half of their wins grading as “quality.”

Conclusion: Market price accurate. Underlying metrics suggest Schalke maybe slightly underrated.

Series Outcomes
wins Losses Probability
3 1 27.763%
3 0 25.021%
3 2 20.537%
2 3 12.054%
1 3 9.565%
0 3 5.060%
(Series Win): 73.322%

(Fnatic projected series win % via model)

 

Qualitative Analysis:

I thought Schalke looked very strong against G2 and showed a willingness to aggressively attack any “vanilla” looking draft. Their game plan to attack the Sion with a Darius to form a triple threat composition was a masterful stroke and I give the coaching staff a ton of credit for it. That said, I don’t see Bwipo blind picking Sion all series long. Still, credit is due to the Schalke coaching staff and if they were able to cook that up against the mighty G2, I have no doubt in my mind that they’ll be able to do something similar against Fnatic even if they’re a much different looking team.

Fnatic looked way sketchier against SK Gaming and were the beneficiaries of some egregious unforced errors that really turned the tide of the series. Still, they got the job done and in many ways it wasn’t all that different than the high volatility performances we’ve grown used to with this iteration of the team.

Both of these teams have very high ceilings Fnatic have just hit it more often this season. They also have more name-brand players that are widely accepted as very strong (I don’t disagree). For these reasons I think a lot of people are looking at this as a super cheap price for Fnatic. Admittedly I’m a bit more bearish than most on Fnatic. I think most people just assume that they’ll regress to some form we’re more familiar with but I kind of just think this team is what they are at this point. I’m just not buying it. They get all the hype of an elite team but they sure as hell haven’t played like it outside of a few performances. Fnatic have a lot of communication issues and struggle to identify a lot of situations that could fairly easily be solved via process of elimination on the map. Are they more talented? Yes but not by as much as you’d think, and none of that really matters if you aren’t putting it to work. Meanwhile Schalke are hitting a good form when it matters most.

I’m definitely not going to be on Fnatic but it’s a matter of whether I like Schalke enough to back them at this price. Right now the answer is no. This number hasn’t moved nearly as much as I’d thought it would but I’ll be keeping an eye on this tomorrow morning. to see if late parlay money or a ton of squares come in hammering the favorites and then I’ll get on Schalke but at this price I think I’ll abstain. If anything just be wary of Fnatic.

Conclusion: Slight edge to Fnatic on talent but that’s about it. Both volatile.

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 29.299

Time-Implied: 29.386

Underdog Win: 29.549

“Gelati” Total Projection: 29.479 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 56.03% (FNC 77.27% / S04 34.78%)

Volatility Rating:  FNC 0.26564 / S04 0.29877 (League Avg: 0.3133)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

(alt) OVER 27.5 @ -104 (moderate-strong)

OVER 26.5 @ -119 (moderate-light)

—-

Team Totals:

S04 team total OVER 10.5 @ -116 (light)

FNC team total UNDER 15.5 @ -115 (very light)

 

FNC League Average S04
Combined Kills / game 32.685 28.57 26.841
Combined Kills / min 1.032 0.86 0.779
Kills per win 19.885 17.99 15.881
Kills per loss 13.669 9.91 9.250
Deaths per win 10.25 8.80 8.55
Deaths per loss 23.90 18.64 17.00
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 9.58 9.41 7.09
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 12.00 9.54 8.50

Fnatic are ridiculously bloody. They’ve gone over the 26.5 total in more than 77% of their games which is honestly hilarious. Schalke have been a below average combined kills team but they’re still well above this number. Both teams are also low volatility when it comes to how consistent they are for combined kills per game/minute. I normally like unders in these spots but 26.5 is actually really low for a Fnatic game. This was 27.5 the last time these two met. Obviously playoffs is higher pressure but that hasn’t really stopped teams for the most part.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 32.451 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 32.36 / 32.33

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 48.62% (FNC 36.36% / S04 60.87%)

Volatility Rating: FNC 0.12603 / S04 0.15634 (League Avg: 0.15060)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

FNC S04
Average Game Time 30.68 34.22
Avg Game Time (in wins) 30.39 35.16
Avg Game Time (in losses) 31.022 33.361

 

Pass here but definitely lean over. Schalke make you work for it.

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 4.5 dragons @ +131 (strong)

FNC first dragon @ -161 (strong)

S04 first blood @ +101 (moderate)**

FNC first tower @ -145 (moderate)

S04 first dragon @ +121 (light)**

OVER 12.5 towers @ +126 (light)

OVER 1.5 barons @ +119 (miniscule)

 

** denotes advantage in a category that the opponent is also strong in, must be considered

 

So I’m thinking this isn’t going to be the fast game speed-run series that most do and that this will be more competitive and back-and-forth. For that reason I’m less bullish on the under dragons even at the GREAT price we’re getting. The over towers looks like a good position for this one regardless of the game script. Over 60% of Schalke games go over this total (average 13 towers per game total) and 31.82% of Fnatic games. Half stake there.

 

 

My Picks:

 

(will update for any positions on sides in this contest going to watch line movement tomorrow morning, like Schalke anything +210 or better)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 26.5 @ -119 (1.19 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 26.5 @ -119 (1.19 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 OVER 26.5 @ -125 (1.25 units)

Kill Total: Map 4 OVER 26.5 @ -123 (1.23 units)

Kill Total: Map 5 OVER 26.5 @ -123 (1.23 units)

Prop: Map 1 OVER 12.5 towers @ +126 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 OVER 12.5 towers @ +132 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 3 OVER 12.5 towers @ +133 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 4 OVER 12.5 towers @ +126 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 5 OVER 12.5 towers @ +124 (0.5 units)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

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