Welcome to some more PrizePicks Dota! We have all 3 game series now, so lines are broken out to G1 + 2, aka the games guaranteed to happen, and Game 3. Keep in mind that Game 3 isn’t guaranteed to happen, and if it doesn’t, that leg of your bet is canceled. I’ve changed the “difference” column to be “difference per game” as that normalizes for the length of the bet. Basically what I mean is if someone projects to go over on kills by 1.5 in 2 games, someone who projects to go over by 1 kill in 1 game is a better play on a per game basis. The Difference column now reflects that.

We’re down to 2 series that are known ahead of time on Friday (winner of OG/Spirit will play again later on), keep an eye out for new lines once the matchup is set. Here are the numbers for the 2 series we do have:

Player Position Stat Line Projection Difference per Game O/U
Yatoro 1 Kills 17.5 12.5 2.48 Under
Yatoro g3 1 Kills 8.5 6.3 2.23 Under
poyoyo 1 Kills 10.5 13.4 1.44 Over
pyw g3 4 Levels 19.5 18.3 1.20 Under
poyoyo g3 1 Kills 5.5 6.7 1.19 Over
Sumail g3 1 Kills 7.5 8.6 1.13 Over
poyoyo g3 1 Deaths 4.5 3.4 1.10 Under
Xepher g3 4 Levels 19.5 18.5 0.97 Under
Sumail 1 Kills 15.5 17.3 0.88 Over
23savage g3 1 Deaths 2.5 3.3 0.85 Over
Xepher 4 Levels 38.5 37.1 0.72 Under
saksa g3 4 Levels 19.5 18.8 0.68 Under
Sumail g3 1 Deaths 2.5 3.2 0.67 Over
23savage 1 Deaths 5.5 6.7 0.60 Over
Yatoro 1 Deaths 7.5 6.4 0.53 Under
miroslaw g3 4 Levels 17.5 18.0 0.51 Over
23savage 1 Kills 15.5 14.6 0.46 Under
pyw 4 Levels 37.5 36.6 0.45 Under
saksa 4 Levels 38.5 37.6 0.43 Under
Sumail 1 Deaths 5.5 6.3 0.42 Over
poyoyo 1 Deaths 7.5 6.8 0.35 Under
Yatoro g3 1 Deaths 3.5 3.2 0.28 Under
miroslaw 4 Levels 35.5 36.0 0.26 Over
23savage g3 1 Kills 7.5 7.3 0.21 Under

I might sound like a broken record, but the key is to focus on correlated plays. That can be a levels under or over (the same side for both players) from the same game, a kills over for one player and deaths over for another, or any other correlated play you can think of. What you don’t want to do is things like kills over for one player and deaths under for his opponent. Sure, it can happen, but it’s much less likely than kills over deaths over. Yatoro kills under is really the only play for games 1+2 that is a strong “good” play, so that will be my anchor in most plays.

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