Welcome back! It’s day 4 of the man event and sadly we are down to 2 game slates, as depending on who wins teams will be playing multiple times per day. I’m again combining projections and article, so make sure to check below the projections table for my thoughts.

Lock is still at 3:00 am EDT, and the games are:

OG (64% implied win probability) vs Team Spirit

T1 (50%) vs Vici Gaming

Here are the projections for IF each team wins.

Team Player DK Role Position Matchup 2-0 Projection 2-1 Projection
OG SumaiL CORE 1 Team Spirit 133.3 129.9
OG Topson CORE 2 Team Spirit 129.2 121.4
OG Ceb CORE 3 Team Spirit 107.5 103.7
OG Saksa SUP 4 Team Spirit 102.0 90.5
OG N0tail SUP 5 Team Spirit 76.5 58.2
T1 Karl CORE 2 Vici Gaming 154.8 155.3
T1 23savage CORE 1 Vici Gaming 145.3 144.4
T1 Kuku CORE 3 Vici Gaming 125.1 113.2
T1 Xepher SUP 4 Vici Gaming 118.3 105.7
T1 Whitemon SUP 5 Vici Gaming 111.8 101.1
Team Spirit Yatoro CORE 1 OG 168.2 164.4
Team Spirit TORONTOTOKYO CORE 2 OG 166.6 164.7
Team Spirit Collapse CORE 3 OG 142.6 135.9
Team Spirit Miroslaw SUP 4 OG 120.7 110.9
Team Spirit Miposhka SUP 5 OG 125.9 105.5
Vici Gaming Ori CORE 2 T1 120.3 116.8
Vici Gaming poyoyo CORE 1 T1 123.8 119.7
Vici Gaming old eLeVeN CORE 3 T1 108.0 102.1
Vici Gaming Dy SUP 4 T1 102.9 92.1
Vici Gaming Pyw SUP 5 T1 101.6 87.0

With this only being a 2 game slate, it gets a bit harder to differentiate. If you read this article yesterday we were able to get T1 at <30%rostership on Karl and <20% on the rest of the squad. That’s not going to happen with anyone on a 2 game slate…except for Spirit. Spirit actually project as the highest scoring 4-stack in a win, in large part because OG are the only plus matchup on the slate in that they allow above average FP when they lose. I do think this is a winnable spot for Spirit, as play consistently solid Dota, and will punish OG for mistakes if OG’s erratic play shows up. OG did not look great against Quincy Crew, they should have lost game 1 and easily could’ve lost game 2 as well. They’ll need a better performance from everyone but Topson, who played out of his mind against Quincy Crew, if they want to continue their search for a 3-peat. Long story short, I like Spirit a lot in GPPs.

Unfortunately, DK continues to price favorites way up, and on 2 game slates that becomes a problem. If you use all of the cheapest cores and supports, you can just barely fit a core captain lineup with OG/VG. That’s too tight of pricing in my opinion, but recognize that what it’s going to do is push rostership to T1. OG are going to be the priority for most people since they’re a decent sized favorite while the other game is a coinflip, which means they’re only going to be able to fit T1. While Spirit of course fits with both, if you do want to play OG I don’t hate using support captain to fit the best cores in an OG/VG stack. Pyw in particular scores pretty well and is dirt cheap. Of course, you end up with a 3 support lineup, but if OG and VG both win (and win with a large overall kill lead), that doesn’t matter as much since it’s only a 2 game slate.

That’ll do it for me, good luck on Friday!

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