Welcome to some more PrizePicks Dota! We have all 3 game series now, so lines are broken out to G1 + 2, aka the games guaranteed to happen, and Game 3. Keep in mind that Game 3 isn’t guaranteed to happen, and if it doesn’t, that leg of your bet is canceled. I’ve changed the “difference” column to be “difference per game” as that normalizes for the length of the bet. Basically what I mean is if someone projects to go over on kills by 1.5 in 2 games, someone who projects to go over by 1 kill in 1 game is a better play on a per game basis. The Difference column now reflects that. Here are the numbers for Thursday
| Player | Position | Stat | Line | Projection | Difference per Game | O/U |
| arteezy g3 | 1 | Deaths | 5.5 | 2.7 | 2.81 | Under |
| ame g3 | 1 | Kills | 9.5 | 7.0 | 2.52 | Under |
| faith_bian g3 | 3 | Levels | 23.5 | 21.1 | 2.39 | Under |
| ame | 1 | Kills | 18.5 | 14.0 | 2.27 | Under |
| old eleven g3 | 3 | Levels | 22.5 | 20.4 | 2.14 | Under |
| jt- g3 | 3 | Levels | 22.5 | 20.6 | 1.95 | Under |
| old eleven | 3 | Levels | 44.5 | 40.7 | 1.89 | Under |
| zai g3 | 3 | Levels | 22.5 | 20.7 | 1.79 | Under |
| jt- | 3 | Levels | 44.5 | 41.1 | 1.70 | Under |
| faith_bian | 3 | Levels | 45.5 | 42.2 | 1.64 | Under |
| iceiceice g3 | 3 | Levels | 22.5 | 20.9 | 1.60 | Under |
| nightfall g3 | 1 | Kills | 7.5 | 5.9 | 1.56 | Under |
| zai | 3 | Levels | 44.5 | 41.4 | 1.54 | Under |
| flyfly | 1 | Kills | 17.5 | 14.5 | 1.51 | Under |
| poyoyo | 1 | Kills | 10.5 | 13.2 | 1.35 | Over |
| dm g3 | 3 | Levels | 21.5 | 20.2 | 1.34 | Under |
| kuku g3 | 3 | Levels | 22.5 | 21.2 | 1.33 | Under |
| flyfly g3 | 1 | Kills | 8.5 | 7.2 | 1.26 | Under |
| nikobaby g3 | 1 | Deaths | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.25 | Under |
| nikobaby | 1 | Kills | 12.5 | 14.8 | 1.17 | Over |
| poyoyo g3 | 1 | Kills | 5.5 | 6.6 | 1.10 | Over |
| dm | 3 | Levels | 42.5 | 40.3 | 1.09 | Under |
| matumbaman | 1 | Kills | 17.5 | 15.4 | 1.03 | Under |
| nikobaby | 1 | Deaths | 8.5 | 6.5 | 1.00 | Under |
| nikobaby g3 | 1 | Kills | 6.5 | 7.4 | 0.92 | Over |
| iceiceice | 3 | Levels | 43.5 | 41.8 | 0.85 | Under |
| nightfall | 1 | Kills | 13.5 | 11.9 | 0.81 | Under |
| nightfall g3 | 1 | Deaths | 2.5 | 3.3 | 0.79 | Over |
| 23savage g3 | 1 | Kills | 8.5 | 7.7 | 0.78 | Under |
| matumbaman g3 | 1 | Kills | 8.5 | 7.7 | 0.78 | Under |
| ame | 1 | Deaths | 4.5 | 5.8 | 0.67 | Over |
| kuku | 3 | Levels | 43.5 | 42.3 | 0.58 | Under |
| flyfly | 1 | Deaths | 5.5 | 6.6 | 0.56 | Over |
| 23savage g3 | 1 | Deaths | 3.5 | 2.9 | 0.56 | Under |
| nightfall | 1 | Deaths | 5.5 | 6.6 | 0.54 | Over |
| 23savage | 1 | Kills | 16.5 | 15.4 | 0.53 | Under |
| arteezy g3 | 1 | Kills | 7.5 | 7.0 | 0.45 | Under |
| matumbaman g3 | 1 | Deaths | 4.5 | 4.1 | 0.45 | Under |
| ame g3 | 1 | Deaths | 2.5 | 2.9 | 0.42 | Over |
| s4 g3 | 3 | Levels | 20.5 | 20.1 | 0.41 | Under |
| poyoyo | 1 | Deaths | 7.5 | 7.0 | 0.25 | Under |
| arteezy | 1 | Kills | 14.5 | 14.1 | 0.20 | Under |
| matumbaman | 1 | Deaths | 8.5 | 8.1 | 0.20 | Under |
| 23savage | 1 | Deaths | 5.5 | 5.9 | 0.19 | Over |
| flyfly g3 | 1 | Deaths | 3.5 | 3.3 | 0.19 | Under |
| s4 | 3 | Levels | 40.5 | 40.2 | 0.16 | Under |
| arteezy | 1 | Deaths | 5.5 | 5.4 | 0.06 | Under |
| poyoyo g3 | 1 | Deaths | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.00 | Over |
Even though a lot of them project as the best values, be careful with Game 3 lines (denoted by the “g3” next to the player). For one, if the series is a sweep in either direction that leg of the play is canceled. And more importantly, teams will play different loser-goes-home games. They’ll typically play a bit safer, which leads to longer games. This is particularly relevant when it comes to betting g3 levels unders. I would personally completely stay away. My numbers only take into account what has happened so far this tournament, which is mostly group stage games, where teams will GG out (when you type “GG” in chat in a pro match you forfeit and your ancient explodes 10 seconds later) a lot earlier than they will knowing they are eliminated if they lose. The Alliance vs T1 and EG vs VG series are the two elimination series, so it’s more relevant for those although it’s not like the other 4 teams will give up being knocked out of the upper bracket easily.
Again, look for correlated plays. That could be levels overs or unders for players in the same game (levels are strongly correlated with game length), kills for one player and deaths his opponent. Basically any scenario you think can realistically happen for a series think of how that will impact the stats of the players, of course using the above chart as a guide.
Let’s win some more cash on Thursday!
