Welcome! After the $5k to first filled roughly 75% of the way, DK decided to keep growing interest in the product by…completely nuking the tournament. We’re left with a $1.5k prize pool $10, which is incredibly frustrating. It’s also 13 entries short of filling as I write this at 9:15 pm EDT, nearly 6 hours before lock.

Anyways, I’ve decided to combine the projections and article into one, so make sure you check below the projections table for my thoughts. Let’s take a look at the games on Thursday’s slate, which locks at 3am EDT:

T1 (72% implied win probability) vs Alliance

EG (52%) vs VG

Secret (51%) vs IG

LGD (68%) vs VP

Here are the projections for IF each team wins.

Team Player DK Role Position Matchup 2-0 Projection 2-1 Projection
Alliance Nikobaby CORE 1 T1 119.5 118.7
Alliance LiMMP CORE 2 T1 134.1 133.0
Alliance s4 CORE 3 T1 108.6 101.1
Alliance Handsken SUP 4 T1 102.1 96.7
Alliance fng SUP 5 T1 92.0 79.5
Evil Geniuses Arteezy CORE 1 Vici Gaming 129.1 118.3
Evil Geniuses Abed CORE 2 Vici Gaming 138.5 133.1
Evil Geniuses iceiceice CORE 3 Vici Gaming 122.8 110.8
Evil Geniuses Cr1t- SUP 4 Vici Gaming 112.8 98.3
Evil Geniuses Fly SUP 5 Vici Gaming 106.9 93.0
Invictus Gaming flyfly CORE 1 Team Secret 154.4 172.9
Invictus Gaming Emo CORE 2 Team Secret 154.7 165.5
Invictus Gaming JT- CORE 3 Team Secret 136.9 140.6
Invictus Gaming Kaka SUP 4 Team Secret 105.7 103.5
Invictus Gaming Oli~ SUP 5 Team Secret 108.3 108.2
PSG.LGD Ame CORE 1 Virtus.Pro 131.6 143.2
PSG.LGD NothingToSay CORE 2 Virtus.Pro 137.5 145.1
PSG.LGD Faith_bian CORE 3 Virtus.Pro 127.8 124.0
PSG.LGD XinQ SUP 4 Virtus.Pro 127.0 126.7
PSG.LGD y` SUP 5 Virtus.Pro 102.8 96.0
T1 23savage CORE 1 Alliance 159.7 165.4
T1 Karl CORE 2 Alliance 167.9 175.2
T1 Kuku CORE 3 Alliance 140.5 132.6
T1 Xepher SUP 4 Alliance 123.7 115.0
T1 Whitemon SUP 5 Alliance 120.8 114.4
Team Secret MATUMBAMAN CORE 1 Invictus Gaming 160.0 151.4
Team Secret Nisha CORE 2 Invictus Gaming 171.3 164.8
Team Secret Zai CORE 3 Invictus Gaming 135.8 130.1
Team Secret YapzOr SUP 4 Invictus Gaming 142.7 135.4
Team Secret Puppey SUP 5 Invictus Gaming 140.7 126.6
Vici Gaming poyoyo CORE 1 Evil Geniuses 114.4 108.3
Vici Gaming Ori CORE 2 Evil Geniuses 110.4 104.9
Vici Gaming old eLeVeN CORE 3 Evil Geniuses 101.7 93.5
Vici Gaming Dy SUP 4 Evil Geniuses 97.8 85.4
Vici Gaming Pyw SUP 5 Evil Geniuses 97.3 81.0
Virtus.Pro Nightfall CORE 1 PSG.LGD 165.5 168.9
Virtus.Pro gpk CORE 2 PSG.LGD 174.7 178.7
Virtus.Pro DM CORE 3 PSG.LGD 142.0 138.4
Virtus.Pro Save SUP 4 PSG.LGD 131.3 126.2
Virtus.Pro Kingslayer SUP 5 PSG.LGD 130.1 123.4

With only 5 lineups to enter in the $10, it’s impossible to get exposure to everyone. You have to pick and choose your spots. The spot that I’m picking, is T1. They’re the 2nd biggest favorite, and rate as the 3rd best 4-stack from my projections. I’m probably going to have them in all 5 of my lineups, because they’re definitely underpriced. If they lose, so be it.

With T1 likely to be popular, I’ll have to mix up who I play them with. What I like to do on these slates with a low number of entries, is play both sides of 1 game with my team I’ve locked in. The matchup I want to do that for here is Secret vs IG. It’s a complete coinflip, and Secret projects as the number 2 4-stack, while IG projects as number 4.

I do want to mention the number 1 ranked stack, which is VP. I’m not playing them at all. For one, they’re playing LGD, who are far and away the favorites at this point. On top of that, LGD’s loss stats, which create the matchup multiplier that then leads to VP having such high projections, are from a tiny sample size, since they almost never lose. If you do want to go VP there’s definitely big upside if they win, it’s just too thin for me in a 176 person (or smaller depending on what you’re playing) tournament.

Good luck Thursday!

Leave a Reply