Welcome! After the $5k to first filled roughly 75% of the way, DK decided to keep growing interest in the product by…completely nuking the tournament. We’re left with a $1.5k prize pool $10, which is incredibly frustrating. It’s also 13 entries short of filling as I write this at 9:15 pm EDT, nearly 6 hours before lock.
Anyways, I’ve decided to combine the projections and article into one, so make sure you check below the projections table for my thoughts. Let’s take a look at the games on Thursday’s slate, which locks at 3am EDT:
T1 (72% implied win probability) vs Alliance
EG (52%) vs VG
Secret (51%) vs IG
LGD (68%) vs VP
Here are the projections for IF each team wins.
|Team||Player||DK Role||Position||Matchup||2-0 Projection||2-1 Projection|
|Evil Geniuses||Arteezy||CORE||1||Vici Gaming||129.1||118.3|
|Evil Geniuses||Abed||CORE||2||Vici Gaming||138.5||133.1|
|Evil Geniuses||iceiceice||CORE||3||Vici Gaming||122.8||110.8|
|Evil Geniuses||Cr1t-||SUP||4||Vici Gaming||112.8||98.3|
|Evil Geniuses||Fly||SUP||5||Vici Gaming||106.9||93.0|
|Invictus Gaming||flyfly||CORE||1||Team Secret||154.4||172.9|
|Invictus Gaming||Emo||CORE||2||Team Secret||154.7||165.5|
|Invictus Gaming||JT-||CORE||3||Team Secret||136.9||140.6|
|Invictus Gaming||Kaka||SUP||4||Team Secret||105.7||103.5|
|Invictus Gaming||Oli~||SUP||5||Team Secret||108.3||108.2|
|Team Secret||MATUMBAMAN||CORE||1||Invictus Gaming||160.0||151.4|
|Team Secret||Nisha||CORE||2||Invictus Gaming||171.3||164.8|
|Team Secret||Zai||CORE||3||Invictus Gaming||135.8||130.1|
|Team Secret||YapzOr||SUP||4||Invictus Gaming||142.7||135.4|
|Team Secret||Puppey||SUP||5||Invictus Gaming||140.7||126.6|
|Vici Gaming||poyoyo||CORE||1||Evil Geniuses||114.4||108.3|
|Vici Gaming||Ori||CORE||2||Evil Geniuses||110.4||104.9|
|Vici Gaming||old eLeVeN||CORE||3||Evil Geniuses||101.7||93.5|
|Vici Gaming||Dy||SUP||4||Evil Geniuses||97.8||85.4|
|Vici Gaming||Pyw||SUP||5||Evil Geniuses||97.3||81.0|
With only 5 lineups to enter in the $10, it’s impossible to get exposure to everyone. You have to pick and choose your spots. The spot that I’m picking, is T1. They’re the 2nd biggest favorite, and rate as the 3rd best 4-stack from my projections. I’m probably going to have them in all 5 of my lineups, because they’re definitely underpriced. If they lose, so be it.
With T1 likely to be popular, I’ll have to mix up who I play them with. What I like to do on these slates with a low number of entries, is play both sides of 1 game with my team I’ve locked in. The matchup I want to do that for here is Secret vs IG. It’s a complete coinflip, and Secret projects as the number 2 4-stack, while IG projects as number 4.
I do want to mention the number 1 ranked stack, which is VP. I’m not playing them at all. For one, they’re playing LGD, who are far and away the favorites at this point. On top of that, LGD’s loss stats, which create the matchup multiplier that then leads to VP having such high projections, are from a tiny sample size, since they almost never lose. If you do want to go VP there’s definitely big upside if they win, it’s just too thin for me in a 176 person (or smaller depending on what you’re playing) tournament.
Good luck Thursday!