Welcome to some more PrizePicks Dota! We have all 3 game series now, so lines are broken out to G1 + 2, aka the games guaranteed to happen, and Game 3. Keep in mind that Game 3 isn’t guaranteed to happen, and if it doesn’t, that leg of your bet is canceled. I’ve changed the “difference” column to be “difference per game” as that normalizes for the length of the bet. Basically what I mean is if someone projects to go over on kills by 1.5 in 2 games, someone who projects to go over by 1 kill in 1 game is a better play on a per game basis. The Difference column now reflects that.
| Player | Position | Stat | Line | Projection | Difference per Game | O/U |
| Karl g3 | 2 | Kills | 8.5 | 6.9 | 1.64 | Under |
| ChYuan g3 | 2 | Kills | 6.5 | 5.1 | 1.40 | Under |
| Miroslaw g3 | 4 | Levels | 17.5 | 18.8 | 1.30 | Over |
| ori | 2 | Deaths | 6.5 | 9.0 | 1.27 | Over |
| ChYuan | 2 | Deaths | 6.5 | 9.0 | 1.24 | Over |
| MSS g3 | 4 | Levels | 16.5 | 17.7 | 1.18 | Over |
| ChYuan | 2 | Kills | 12.5 | 10.2 | 1.15 | Under |
| Nothingtosay | 2 | Deaths | 4.5 | 6.7 | 1.10 | Over |
| ori g3 | 2 | Deaths | 3.5 | 4.5 | 1.02 | Over |
| ChYuan g3 | 2 | Deaths | 3.5 | 4.5 | 0.99 | Over |
| Torontotokyo g3 | 2 | Kills | 7.5 | 6.5 | 0.97 | Under |
| Xepher g3 | 4 | Levels | 16.5 | 17.4 | 0.94 | Over |
| gpk | 2 | Deaths | 4.5 | 6.3 | 0.91 | Over |
| Karl | 2 | Kills | 15.5 | 13.7 | 0.89 | Under |
| Xinq g3 | 4 | Levels | 18.5 | 19.4 | 0.86 | Over |
| ori g3 | 2 | Kills | 7.5 | 6.6 | 0.86 | Under |
| Torontotokyo | 2 | Deaths | 4.5 | 6.2 | 0.85 | Over |
| Nothingtosay g3 | 2 | Deaths | 2.5 | 3.3 | 0.85 | Over |
| Xepher | 4 | Levels | 36.5 | 34.9 | 0.81 | Under |
| Jabz | 4 | Levels | 37.5 | 36.0 | 0.75 | Under |
| Torontotokyo | 2 | Kills | 14.5 | 13.1 | 0.72 | Under |
| Karl g3 | 2 | Deaths | 2.5 | 3.2 | 0.67 | Over |
| gpk g3 | 2 | Deaths | 2.5 | 3.2 | 0.66 | Over |
| Nothingtosay g3 | 2 | Kills | 8.5 | 7.9 | 0.65 | Under |
| Pyw g3 | 4 | Levels | 17.5 | 18.1 | 0.64 | Over |
| Saksa g3 | 4 | Levels | 18.5 | 19.1 | 0.62 | Over |
| ori | 2 | Kills | 14.5 | 13.3 | 0.61 | Under |
| Torontotokyo g3 | 2 | Deaths | 2.5 | 3.1 | 0.60 | Over |
| Quinn | 2 | Kills | 13.5 | 12.3 | 0.59 | Under |
| Jabz g3 | 4 | Levels | 17.5 | 18.0 | 0.50 | Over |
| Miroslaw | 4 | Levels | 38.5 | 37.6 | 0.45 | Under |
| Topson g3 | 2 | Kills | 6.5 | 6.9 | 0.43 | Over |
| Karl | 2 | Deaths | 5.5 | 6.3 | 0.42 | Over |
| Save | 4 | Levels | 36.5 | 37.3 | 0.41 | Over |
| Nothingtosay | 2 | Kills | 16.5 | 15.7 | 0.40 | Under |
| Topson | 2 | Deaths | 10.5 | 9.7 | 0.39 | Under |
| Xinq | 4 | Levels | 39.5 | 38.7 | 0.39 | Under |
| Saksa | 4 | Levels | 37.5 | 38.2 | 0.37 | Over |
| Topson g3 | 2 | Deaths | 4.5 | 4.9 | 0.36 | Over |
| Quinn g3 | 2 | Kills | 6.5 | 6.2 | 0.34 | Under |
| Topson | 2 | Kills | 14.5 | 13.9 | 0.32 | Under |
| Quinn g3 | 2 | Deaths | 5.5 | 5.7 | 0.18 | Over |
| gpk g3 | 2 | Kills | 7.5 | 7.3 | 0.17 | Under |
| Save g3 | 4 | Levels | 18.5 | 18.7 | 0.16 | Over |
| Pyw | 4 | Levels | 36.5 | 36.3 | 0.11 | Under |
| gpk | 2 | Kills | 14.5 | 14.7 | 0.08 | Over |
| Quinn | 2 | Deaths | 11.5 | 11.4 | 0.07 | Under |
| MSS | 4 | Levels | 35.5 | 35.4 | 0.07 | Under |
On this slate, it looks like the Pos 2 death lines are a bit too low. Pos 2 is typically an aggressive role, so while the Pos 2’s are involved in a lot of kills, they end up dying a decent amount as when they do get caught mid heroes are typically fairly squishy.
Other than that, focus on correlated plays. My favorite correlation is levels from opponents. Levels tend to be correlated to game length so I like to bet either both over or both under. Kills from one side of the game and deaths from the other is another solid correlation.
Good luck on Wednesday, let’s win some money!
