Welcome to some more PrizePicks Dota! We have all 3 game series now, so lines are broken out to G1 + 2, aka the games guaranteed to happen, and Game 3. Keep in mind that Game 3 isn’t guaranteed to happen, and if it doesn’t, that leg of your bet is canceled. I’ve changed the “difference” column to be “difference per game” as that normalizes for the length of the bet. Basically what I mean is if someone projects to go over on kills by 1.5 in 2 games, someone who projects to go over by 1 kill in 1 game is a better play on a per game basis. The Difference column now reflects that.

Player Position Stat Line Projection Difference per Game O/U
Karl g3 2 Kills 8.5 6.9 1.64 Under
ChYuan g3 2 Kills 6.5 5.1 1.40 Under
Miroslaw g3 4 Levels 17.5 18.8 1.30 Over
ori 2 Deaths 6.5 9.0 1.27 Over
ChYuan 2 Deaths 6.5 9.0 1.24 Over
MSS g3 4 Levels 16.5 17.7 1.18 Over
ChYuan 2 Kills 12.5 10.2 1.15 Under
Nothingtosay 2 Deaths 4.5 6.7 1.10 Over
ori g3 2 Deaths 3.5 4.5 1.02 Over
ChYuan g3 2 Deaths 3.5 4.5 0.99 Over
Torontotokyo g3 2 Kills 7.5 6.5 0.97 Under
Xepher g3 4 Levels 16.5 17.4 0.94 Over
gpk 2 Deaths 4.5 6.3 0.91 Over
Karl 2 Kills 15.5 13.7 0.89 Under
Xinq g3 4 Levels 18.5 19.4 0.86 Over
ori g3 2 Kills 7.5 6.6 0.86 Under
Torontotokyo 2 Deaths 4.5 6.2 0.85 Over
Nothingtosay g3 2 Deaths 2.5 3.3 0.85 Over
Xepher 4 Levels 36.5 34.9 0.81 Under
Jabz 4 Levels 37.5 36.0 0.75 Under
Torontotokyo 2 Kills 14.5 13.1 0.72 Under
Karl g3 2 Deaths 2.5 3.2 0.67 Over
gpk g3 2 Deaths 2.5 3.2 0.66 Over
Nothingtosay g3 2 Kills 8.5 7.9 0.65 Under
Pyw g3 4 Levels 17.5 18.1 0.64 Over
Saksa g3 4 Levels 18.5 19.1 0.62 Over
ori 2 Kills 14.5 13.3 0.61 Under
Torontotokyo g3 2 Deaths 2.5 3.1 0.60 Over
Quinn 2 Kills 13.5 12.3 0.59 Under
Jabz g3 4 Levels 17.5 18.0 0.50 Over
Miroslaw 4 Levels 38.5 37.6 0.45 Under
Topson g3 2 Kills 6.5 6.9 0.43 Over
Karl 2 Deaths 5.5 6.3 0.42 Over
Save 4 Levels 36.5 37.3 0.41 Over
Nothingtosay 2 Kills 16.5 15.7 0.40 Under
Topson 2 Deaths 10.5 9.7 0.39 Under
Xinq 4 Levels 39.5 38.7 0.39 Under
Saksa 4 Levels 37.5 38.2 0.37 Over
Topson g3 2 Deaths 4.5 4.9 0.36 Over
Quinn g3 2 Kills 6.5 6.2 0.34 Under
Topson 2 Kills 14.5 13.9 0.32 Under
Quinn g3 2 Deaths 5.5 5.7 0.18 Over
gpk g3 2 Kills 7.5 7.3 0.17 Under
Save g3 4 Levels 18.5 18.7 0.16 Over
Pyw 4 Levels 36.5 36.3 0.11 Under
gpk 2 Kills 14.5 14.7 0.08 Over
Quinn 2 Deaths 11.5 11.4 0.07 Under
MSS 4 Levels 35.5 35.4 0.07 Under

On this slate, it looks like the Pos 2 death lines are a bit too low. Pos 2 is typically an aggressive role, so while the Pos 2’s are involved in a lot of kills, they end up dying a decent amount as when they do get caught mid heroes are typically fairly squishy.

Other than that, focus on correlated plays. My favorite correlation is levels from opponents. Levels tend to be correlated to game length so I like to bet either both over or both under. Kills from one side of the game and deaths from the other is another solid correlation.

Good luck on Wednesday, let’s win some money!

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