Welcome! The $5k to first Dota contest that’s been sitting in the DK lobby for literal months is finally here! It’s a great 4 game slate, all Bo3 series. Lock is at 3:00 am EDT, and the games are:

PSG.LGD (84% implied win probability) vs T1

Virtus.Pro (59%) vs Vici Gaming

Team Spirit (63%) vs Fnatic

OG (76%) vs Quincy Crew

PSG.LGD vs T1

It’s worth noting that the PSG.LGD vs T1 game and Virtus.Pro vs Vici Gaming game are upper bracket games, meaning the loser is not eliminated, while the Spirit vs Fnatic and OG vs Quincy Crew games are lower bracket, the loser is out. Teams in the lower bracket will play games out to the bitter end, and while it’s not like teams in the upper bracket will give up, a team might GG out a few deaths earlier than a lower bracket team would.

Let’s start with the big favorite, PSG.LGD. Frankly, it’s their tournament to lose at this point, and they simply outmatch T1. In Groups, T1 pretty much beat the teams they should be and lost to the teams they should lose to, with the notable exception of a surprise 2-0 over VP. However, in their 6 losses in the group stage, T1 died at a much lower rate than the average team. Because of that, I actually have LGD projected as the lowest scoring team on the slate in a 2-0 win. Of course, they’re the most likely team to actually get that 2-0 win, but I still don’t like them in the big GPP. If you play cash (are there even Dota cash games?) sure go ahead and lock them in, but there are higher upside plays in GPPs.

Technically T1 project as a high upside play, their 4 stack projects as the 2nd best in a 2-0 win. However, LGD barely ever lose, so their sample size of losses tiny. I’m not planning on playing T1 in more than a handful of my 70 lineups, as there chances of winning are so low.

Virtus.Pro vs Vici Gaming

The other upper bracket game is VP vs Vici Gaming. Vici are my favorite GPP play on the slate. I’m just not sold on this VP team. They had an impressive 2-0 against EG, but other than that they also just beat up on the lower teams in their group. I think this game is a coin toss, maybe even slightly Vici favored. On top of that, Vici project as the number 3 4-stack on the slate, behind only the 2 big underdogs. They have great upside, a strong chance to win, and shouldn’t have a ton of rostership since they are underdogs according to Vegas. Poyoyo is their top scorer from the carry position, with their mid, Ori, shortly behind him. Old Eleven is the 3rd core, but I prefer the supports in stacks, as Old Eleven doesn’t typically outscore them by too much.

VP on the other hand are the cheapest favorite, which will likely make them fairly popular. I’ll definitely have some exposure to them. Gpk slightly outscores Nightfall, with DM a distant 3rd among the cores. The supports are right behind DM, so I again prefer them in stacks.

Team Spirit vs Fnatic

Spirit were definitely the “surprise” team to make the upper bracket, then it was an even bigger surprise to take a game off IG. However, IG massively threw that game, so while I don’t want to discredit Spirit, I think they’re a bit overvalued by Vegas here. They did 2-0 Fnatic during groups, but Fnatic threw Game 2 of that series. I think this series is more like 55/45 in Spirit’s favor. That’s not a huge difference, but enough that I’ll likely want to be over the field on Fnatic. The Fnatic 4 stack profiles as the 4th best stack in a 2-0 win, so I’ll definitely want plenty of shares. Raven typically outscores Chyuan by a decent margin, and then it’s actually been Jabz from Pos 4 who’s the 3rd best scorer. Keep that in mind when you make Fnatic stacks

On the Spirit side, they play disciplined, relatively low kill, Dota. They profile as the 6th best 4-stack on the slate, and while I’m obviously going to use them since I’m planning on making 70 lineups, they won’t be a team I focus on. Yatoro and Torontotokyo score basically the same, well above Collapse. Collapse himself has a decently large gap over both supports though, so he may be worth a look if you 4 stack Spirit. However, the 2 stack is my preferred play, as everyone besides the 2 big cores score pretty poorly overall.

OG vs Quincy Crew

OG definitely outmatch Quincy Crew, much like LGD do T1. However, the difference is that OG is a lot less consistent, and, as we saw in Game 2 against Secret, sometimes get a little too creative in the draft. They also play a chaotic style, which can occasionally backfire as well. The most likely outcome here is definitely that OG steamroll Quincy Crew, but if they don’t Quincy Crew could put up a huge score. They technically project as the top stack on the slate in a 2-0 win. I’m going to have a good amount of exposure here as my goal is to win the tournament. There’s a good chance all my Quincy Crew lineups pay the rake (who am I kidding it’s going to overlay), but if Quincy Crew does win I should be in good shape to win the tournament.

The OG side is technically my 7th rated stack, however they have a tendency to drag teams into their chaotic style when they play. I’m not putting too much stock into Quincy Crew being a “bad” matchup, because OG will force them to fight early and often. OG will probably be the favorite that I use the most on this slate. I expect a large chunk of my lineups to have one side or the other from this game. Sumail is far and away the top scorer here, then there’s a bit of a gap between Topson and Ceb. N0tail has the single lowest projected score on the slate, he typically plays a super sacrificial position 5, leading to poor fantasy scores.

Lineup Construction

I’ll be running almost entirely 4-2 (not counting team slot) lineups on this slate. With the exception of maybe a couple OG/Quincy Crew game stacks, I won’t be game stacking, even though I liked it on the 2 game slate previously. With 4 games it’s just a super narrow outcome to have both sides of one game be the two highest scoring teams. My favorite GPP plays are:

VG>Quincy Crew>Fnatic>OG>VP>LGD>Spirit>T1

Good luck on Wednesday, let’s get this tournament filled up!

 

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