Welcome! PrizePicks has another nice slate of Dota props for the 1st day of the main event. There are 2 Bo3 series and then a bunch of Bo1 series. The way PrizePicks deals with Bo3 series, is they give a line for Games 1 + 2, and then a line for G3. They kind of have to do it this way as if they gave a line for the whole series whether the series went 2 games or 3 would make a huge difference. I’ve denoted G3 specific lines with a “g3” at the end of a player’s name. Keep in mind that if you bet a G3 and the series is a sweep, that leg of the parlay is canceled. If it’s part of a 2 leg parlay the whole bet is canceled and your money is refunded, regardless of the outcome of the other leg.

The variable series length makes going just by raw “difference” in projection vs the spread not as useful. If Player A is projected to go over his kill total by 2 kills in Games 1 + 2, but Player B is projected to go over his kill total by 2 in just the one game they are playing, Player B is clearly the “better” play, as he is projected to go over by 2 kills per game while Player A is projected to go over by 1 kill per game. So what I’ve done is normalized the “Difference” column in my chart to be “difference per game” instead. That should be a better way to rank how good each play is. Anyways, here is the chart:

Player Position Stat Line Projection Difference O/U
yatoro g3 1 Kills 8.5 5.6 2.90 Under
yatoro 1 Kills 16.5 11.2 2.65 Under
puppey 5 Levels 37.5 33.6 1.97 Under
puppey g3 5 Levels 18.5 16.8 1.72 Under
stinger 5 Levels 15.5 17.1 1.63 Over
flyfly g3 1 Kills 9.5 8.0 1.48 Under
dubu 5 Levels 18.5 17.1 1.37 Under
Nikobaby 1 Kills 6.5 7.9 1.37 Over
fng 5 Levels 15.5 16.9 1.37 Over
loa (SVG) 5 Levels 15.5 16.8 1.33 Over
n0tail g3 5 Levels 18.5 17.2 1.29 Under
flyfly g3 1 Deaths 4.5 5.8 1.26 Over
flyfly 1 Kills 18.5 16.0 1.23 Under
Oli~ 5 Levels 36.5 35.3 1.19 Under
super 5 Levels 15.5 16.7 1.18 Over
Sumail g3 1 Kills 7.5 8.6 1.14 Over
K1 1 Kills 5.5 6.6 1.13 Over
n0tail 5 Levels 36.5 34.4 1.04 Under
Sumail 1 Kills 15.5 17.3 0.89 Over
Matumbaman g3 1 Deaths 3.5 4.4 0.86 Over
Oli~ 5 Levels 18.5 17.7 0.84 Under
Miposhka 5 Levels 33.5 32.7 0.83 Under
fly 5 Levels 16.5 17.3 0.81 Over
Yawar 1 Deaths 3.5 2.7 0.80 Under
Raven 1 Deaths 3.5 2.8 0.74 Under
lanm 5 Levels 16.5 17.2 0.66 Over
Nikobaby 1 Deaths 3.5 2.9 0.61 Under
Arteezy 1 Kills 6.5 7.1 0.60 Over
Timado 1 Kills 7.5 7.0 0.53 Under
dj 5 Levels 16.5 16.9 0.37 Over
Monet 1 Deaths 2.5 2.9 0.37 Over
Matumbaman g3 1 Kills 7.5 7.1 0.36 Under
Sumail g3 1 Deaths 3.5 3.2 0.28 Under
Raven 1 Kills 8.5 8.3 0.22 Under
Eurus 1 Kills 6.5 6.7 0.21 Over
flyfly 1 Deaths 2.5 2.9 0.19 Over
Miposhka 5 Levels 16.5 16.3 0.16 Under
yatoro 1 Deaths 6.5 6.8 0.16 Over
Yawar 1 Kills 5.5 5.4 0.13 Under
Matumbaman 1 Deaths 8.5 8.7 0.11 Over
Matumbaman 1 Kills 14.5 14.3 0.11 Under
Arteezy 1 Deaths 2.5 2.6 0.09 Over
yatoro g3 1 Deaths 3.5 3.4 0.09 Under
Monet 1 Kills 7.5 7.6 0.08 Over
Eurus 1 Deaths 3.5 3.6 0.06 Over
K1 1 Deaths 3.5 3.5 0.04 Over
Sumail 1 Deaths 6.5 6.4 0.03 Under
Timado 1 Deaths 2.5 2.5 0.02 Over

I’m again going to focus on making correlated plays, as outside of Yatoro’s kills Under (remember, you can only use a player once in a parlay, so even though G3 is technically slightly “better” it’s also not guaranteed to happen) there isn’t a ton that really jumps out as being a “great” play.

I will say I’m more likely to bet levels overs in the Bo1 games than even the chart says. This is a bit out of my own personal bias though. The Bo1 games are loser is eliminated from the tournament. In such tense games, teams tend to play slower and safer, aka games go longer. Therefore, I’d expect the level averages in the Bo1 games (anyone who doesn’t also have a “g3” version is in a Bo1) to be even higher than the rest of the tournament and thus higher than what my numbers indicate.

Let’s win some money!

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