Welcome! I wanted to give a quick write-up for the 10/12 DK Dota slate. I’ve already posted my projections for how each team will score if they win, but I wanted to give some quick thoughts on the slate. If you’ve never played Dota on Draftkings, it’s very similar to LoL in terms of lineup construction. There’s a bit more positional flexibilty as it’s just “Core” or “Support” instead of each specific position. Check the projections to see the breakdown of how each team scores as just like in LoL where for example some teams play more through their Top player, different Dota teams play more through different players.

This slate locks at 3:00 am EDT, and the games are:

Invictus Gaming (76% implied win probability) vs Spirit

OG (58%) vs Secret

On this slate, we have one big mismatch and one complete tossup. The mismatch is IG vs Spirit. Spirit were the surprise team to make the upper bracket, while IG dominated, only dropping 1 single map. Given that the biggest GPP is only 10 entry max, I won’t be playing more than 1, maybe 2 Spirit stacks. In fact I’ll probably play 0.

However, I also don’t love IG. Spirit play low kill Dota. In their losses they average nearly 20% fewer deaths than the average for the tournament.

But Chris, it’s only a 2 game slate, how can you not like either team from one game? That’s because my favorite play is actually the game stack in OG/Secret. Both teams can play some chaotic Dota, and this is a very evenly matched series. OG die 1.2x the average in losses, and Secret die 1.09x the average in losses. Both teams get above average kills when they lose. Look at the 2-1 projections vs 2-0 projections for both teams. The 2-1 projection is higher for 7/10 players. Basically that means 7/10 players average more than the 30 point match sweep bonus in losses. Hopefully the game stack is also low owned (depends how many people read this and actually listen tbh). I’ll probably run 4, maybe even 5 out of 10 lineups as a game stack from OG/Secret.

Other than the gamestack, I prefer IG + Secret then IG + OG. I’ll probably have 3 or 4 of IG + Secret (Secret should be lowered owned and in my opinion that game is a complete coinflip), and then a couple IG + OG just to make sure my bases are covered. If Spirit wins I’ll tip my cap to them and move on to the big Wedesday slate.

Good luck if you’re playing this Dota slate!

 

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