Hi! Welcome, hopefully welcome back, to my thoughts on the Dota offering on PrizePicks. If you’re new to playing on PrizePicks, it’s basically putting together player prop parlays. For Dota, you can put together a 2, 3, 4, or 5 leg parlay on certain players kills, deaths, and total player levels across a 2 game series. Check it out if you haven’t, and if you want to do me a solid (note that neither myself personally nor TESD are officially affiliated with PrizePicks in any way, this is my personal promo code), enter code: PR-353NVC4 when you sign up.

We’ve had a really solid start to the first two days, with just a couple of unfortunate misses (hello Wisper 4 kills across 2 games where Beastcoast went 1-1 when he averages over 5 kills in an individual loss and nearly 10 in a win) holding at least the specific parlays I ended up on back from having monstrous days. Still, it’s definitely been profitable as I’ve cashed just about 20% of my 4 leg parlays that pay out 10x (so cashing 10% is break-even). Hopefully we can keep it going!

When PrizePicks added the position 4 options on Friday morning, I noticed the lines were quite a bit sharper than previous lines had been. That trend has sadly continued on Saturday, as the largest absolute value of my projected vs the posted line is only 4.48. On both Thursday and Friday there were a bunch of players with a difference of over 5, and some as high as 8+. Still, there are a few spots I think we can take advantage.

 

Anyways, here is the chart:

Player Position Stat Line Projection Difference O/U
wisper 3 Deaths 8.5 13.0 4.48 Over
Topson 2 Kills 14.5 10.8 3.73 Under
Nothingtosay 2 Kills 18.5 14.9 3.60 Under
ori 2 Deaths 6.5 10.0 3.52 Over
gpk 2 Deaths 8.5 5.0 3.51 Under
Ceb 3 Levels 45.5 42.4 3.08 Under
somnus 2 Kills 15.5 18.5 3.01 Over
Karl 2 Levels 47.5 44.7 2.82 Under
lelis 3 Kills 8.5 5.8 2.73 Under
Saberlight 3 Kills 9.5 6.8 2.67 Under
Nothingtosay 2 Deaths 5.5 8.2 2.65 Over
quinn 2 Kills 11.5 13.9 2.36 Over
wisper 3 Kills 15.5 13.2 2.31 Under
deth 3 Levels 42.5 40.2 2.30 Under
Ceb 3 Deaths 9.5 11.8 2.29 Over
old eleven 3 Deaths 8.5 10.8 2.29 Over
Nothingtosay 2 Levels 48.5 46.2 2.29 Under
xxs 3 Levels 42.5 40.2 2.26 Under
zai 3 Kills 10.5 8.2 2.26 Under
old eleven 3 Levels 44.5 42.3 2.20 Under
Limmp 2 Kills 13.5 11.3 2.16 Under
chris luck 2 Deaths 6.5 8.6 2.14 Over
4dr 2 Levels 41.5 43.6 2.11 Over
Saberlight 3 Deaths 10.5 12.6 2.08 Over
ori 2 Levels 46.5 44.4 2.07 Under
torontotokyo 2 Kills 10.5 12.6 2.06 Over
tavo 3 Levels 36.5 38.5 2.04 Over
Abed 2 Levels 47.5 45.6 1.86 Under
old eleven 3 Kills 12.5 10.7 1.76 Under
lelis 3 Levels 37.5 39.3 1.76 Over
Ceb 3 Kills 10.5 8.8 1.70 Under
leostyle- 2 Kills 12.5 14.2 1.68 Over
Bryle 2 Kills 16.5 14.8 1.67 Under
quinn 2 Levels 46.5 44.9 1.62 Under
deth 3 Deaths 11.5 9.9 1.59 Under
ori 2 Kills 14.5 12.9 1.58 Under
chyuan 2 Kills 11.5 10.0 1.54 Under
White Album 2 Levels 47.5 46.0 1.54 Under
Topson 2 Levels 46.5 45.0 1.50 Under
faith_bian 3 Deaths 6.5 7.8 1.33 Over
Topson 2 Deaths 10.5 11.8 1.29 Over
s4 3 Deaths 11.5 12.8 1.26 Over
JT- 3 Levels 40.5 41.8 1.25 Over
Limmp 2 Deaths 8.5 7.3 1.20 Under
gpk 2 Kills 17.5 16.3 1.20 Under
kuku 3 Levels 42.5 41.3 1.17 Under
leostyle- 2 Deaths 10.5 9.3 1.15 Under
Limmp 2 Levels 44.5 45.6 1.15 Over
4dr 2 Deaths 8.5 7.4 1.11 Under
Abed 2 Kills 12.5 13.6 1.09 Over
iceiceice 3 Deaths 5.5 6.5 1.02 Over
kuku 3 Deaths 10.5 9.5 0.98 Under
JT- 3 Deaths 6.5 7.5 0.96 Over
xxs 3 Kills 8.5 9.5 0.96 Over
faith_bian 3 Levels 42.5 43.4 0.95 Over
kuku 3 Kills 10.5 9.6 0.94 Under
Saberlight 3 Levels 40.5 39.6 0.94 Under
xxs 3 Deaths 8.5 7.6 0.92 Under
gpk 2 Levels 46.5 47.4 0.89 Over
lelis 3 Deaths 10.5 9.7 0.83 Under
torontotokyo 2 Deaths 5.5 6.3 0.81 Over
Bryle 2 Deaths 6.5 7.3 0.80 Over
iceiceice 3 Levels 42.5 43.3 0.75 Over
leostyle- 2 Levels 42.5 43.2 0.75 Over
frank 3 Deaths 11.5 10.8 0.75 Under
torontotokyo 2 Levels 46.5 45.8 0.74 Under
chris luck 2 Kills 12.5 13.2 0.72 Over
White Album 2 Kills 13.5 12.8 0.71 Under
frank 3 Kills 4.5 5.2 0.69 Over
deth 3 Kills 7.5 8.2 0.68 Over
JT- 3 Kills 11.5 12.1 0.65 Over
Abed 2 Deaths 6.5 5.9 0.60 Under
Karl 2 Deaths 6.5 5.9 0.59 Under
somnus 2 Deaths 5.5 4.9 0.56 Under
4dr 2 Kills 11.5 12.0 0.54 Over
somnus 2 Levels 46.5 47.0 0.53 Over
White Album 2 Deaths 9.5 10.0 0.51 Over
chyuan 2 Levels 44.5 45.0 0.51 Over
Bryle 2 Levels 44.5 45.0 0.50 Over
s4 3 Kills 8.5 8.0 0.49 Under
collapse 3 Deaths 8.5 8.1 0.40 Under
collapse 3 Kills 8.5 8.9 0.39 Over
faith_bian 3 Kills 10.5 10.2 0.33 Under
zai 3 Deaths 9.5 9.2 0.32 Under
collapse 3 Levels 41.5 41.8 0.29 Over
frank 3 Levels 38.5 38.7 0.23 Over
zai 3 Levels 42.5 42.7 0.23 Over
tavo 3 Deaths 12.5 12.7 0.20 Over
quinn 2 Deaths 9.5 9.3 0.20 Under
wisper 3 Levels 39.5 39.7 0.18 Over
chyuan 2 Deaths 8.5 8.7 0.17 Over
s4 3 Levels 40.5 40.7 0.16 Over
Karl 2 Kills 14.5 14.4 0.14 Under
chris luck 2 Levels 45.5 45.6 0.13 Over
iceiceice 3 Kills 8.5 8.4 0.07 Under
tavo 3 Kills 7.5 7.5 0.02 Over

With the lack of massively soft lines, I’m going to focus more on correlated plays. For example, if I want to play the over on Quinn kills, I might pair that with the over on Torontotokyo deaths since they are playing against each other and thus if Quinn kills Torontotokyo during their H2H during laning (or just in fights as the games progress), it helps me hit both legs of the parlay. I while I like pairing kills and deaths from opponents, when I make correlated plays for hero levels I’ll likely go Over/Over or Under/Under on opponents, as levels are largely tied to game length and therefore positively correlated, even for opponents.

Good luck on Saturday!

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