Welcome back! It’s Day 2 of TI and Day 2 of Prize Picks Dota! I’ve updated my numbers to include all 40 games from Day 1 of TI so we should hopefully get more and more accurate. For players who I didn’t have data on (list below) I now have VERY SMALL sample sizes, so take any of their projections with a grain of salt. The players on this Prize Picks slate that that includes are:

yang
tavo
ceb
frank
eurus
costabile
timado
mnz

Since Frank and mnz haven’t won a game yet I actually didn’t include them in the table at all, but the other guys are there. Without further ado, here’s what I think the best Kill or Death props are on Friday:

Player Position Stat Line Projection Difference O/U
yang 3 Kills 11.5 4.1 7.41 Under
tavo 3 Kills 8.5 1.8 6.66 Under
wisper 3 Kills 8.5 15.1 6.59 Over
timado 1 Deaths 8.5 3.5 5.00 Under
timado 1 Kills 11.5 16.1 4.60 Over
s4 3 Deaths 9.5 14.1 4.57 Over
zai 3 Deaths 8.5 13.1 4.55 Over
eurus 1 Kills 17.5 13.3 4.23 Under
matumbaman 1 Kills 12.5 16.7 4.18 Over
dm 3 Kills 12.5 8.5 4.04 Under
nightfall 1 Kills 18.5 14.7 3.78 Under
jt 3 Kills 9.5 13.1 3.63 Over
xxs 3 Deaths 11.5 7.9 3.60 Under
flyfly 1 Kills 15.5 12.1 3.44 Under
nikobaby 1 Kills 13.5 16.8 3.31 Over
old eleven 3 Deaths 9.5 12.8 3.30 Over
yatoro 1 Deaths 9.5 6.2 3.27 Under
monet 1 Kills 9.5 12.5 2.98 Over
yawar 1 Deaths 8.5 5.7 2.84 Under
yawar 1 Kills 8.5 11.1 2.60 Over
kuku 3 Deaths 12.5 9.9 2.59 Under
lelis 3 Kills 8.5 10.9 2.36 Over
iceiceice 3 Kills 10.5 8.2 2.31 Under
monet 1 Deaths 8.5 6.3 2.17 Under
deth 3 Deaths 10.5 8.5 1.99 Under
Faith_bian 3 Kills 11.5 9.6 1.94 Under
deth 3 Kills 11.5 9.6 1.94 Under
ceb 3 Deaths 8.5 10.4 1.93 Over
costabile 1 Deaths 11.5 13.2 1.73 Over
wisper 3 Deaths 10.5 12.2 1.72 Over
kuku 3 Kills 6.5 8.1 1.63 Over
yatoro 1 Kills 10.5 12.1 1.55 Over
tavo 3 Deaths 12.5 14.0 1.49 Over
eurus 1 Deaths 7.5 6.0 1.48 Under
nikobaby 1 Deaths 6.5 5.1 1.43 Under
flyfly 1 Deaths 8.5 7.2 1.35 Under
poyoyo 1 Kills 16.5 15.2 1.30 Under
ame 1 Deaths 3.5 4.8 1.30 Over
jt 3 Deaths 8.5 7.2 1.28 Under
sumail 1 Deaths 4.5 5.8 1.25 Over
raven 1 Kills 10.5 11.7 1.17 Over
sumail 1 Kills 20.5 19.3 1.16 Under
s4 3 Kills 8.5 7.4 1.12 Under
Faith_bian 3 Deaths 9.5 8.4 1.06 Under
costabile 1 Kills 8.5 9.5 0.97 Over
nightfall 1 Deaths 5.5 4.6 0.92 Under
23savage 1 Deaths 8.5 7.6 0.91 Under
raven 1 Deaths 7.5 6.6 0.90 Under
zai 3 Kills 8.5 7.6 0.89 Under
old eleven 3 Kills 8.5 9.4 0.88 Over
lelis 3 Deaths 8.5 7.7 0.84 Under
yang 3 Deaths 10.5 11.3 0.81 Over
poyoyo 1 Deaths 6.5 5.8 0.67 Under
ame 1 Kills 14.5 14.1 0.40 Under
xxs 3 Kills 8.5 8.7 0.25 Over
dm 3 Deaths 7.5 7.7 0.19 Over
23savage 1 Kills 12.5 12.7 0.18 Over
ceb 3 Kills 10.5 10.7 0.16 Over
iceiceice 3 Deaths 7.5 7.4 0.14 Under
matumbaman 1 Deaths 5.5 5.4 0.12 Under

 

You’ll notice that in general, the lines are a lot tighter (especially if you ignore the small sample size guys, who basically make up all of the top), than they were on Thursday. The switch from position 2’s (Mids) to positions 3’s (offlane) definitely makes things more challenging. Pos 3 is often super hero dependent on whether or not they get a bunch of kills or assists. Someone who plays for example axe will get a lot of kills because of axe’s ult (instantly kills people with low health) but people who play tidehunter, who is more about initiating teamfights will get more assists. This adds a degree of extra uncertainty to the projections.

That said, the one projection that I do have a decent sample size for that stands out is the Wisper kills Over. He averages a ton of kills, 10.2 in wins and 5.3 in losses, and Beastcoast has a ~42% chance to win each game of that series. With PrizePicks giving out a bonus on 2 leg parlays (paying them at 4x instead of 3x) I’ll have plenty of Wisper kills over in those.

Other standout lines are s4 and zai death overs. Both are players who die a lot because they’re making space for their team, so they should die a bunch in both wins and losses (unless the win is a complete stomp). On top of that they’re both big underdogs in their respective series’.

 

Lastly, I’ve started collecting data on player level. What I’ve done for this slate is taken the average level for each position on teams that win on Thursday, and teams that lost on Thursday. This gives me a moderate sample size of 40 games per each position for both wins and losses. I’m using the averages for all players because I feel that level is more of a function of whether a team is winning or losing and how long the game goes than individual performance (with exceptions for when one player absolutely carries a game, but typically teams that constantly rely on 1 player to do that don’t make TI). So basically I’m using the average for a players position combined with his odds that day to create a “level projection”.

I do want to share what I have even though this is very much a work in progress because I think there’s a lot of value on position 3 unders, but please note that I am a LOT LESS CONFIDENT in these numbers than I am kills/deaths. Anyways, here’s that data:

Player Position Stat Line Projection Difference O/U
zai 3 Levels 47.5 38.8 8.72 Under
Faith_bian 3 Levels 49.5 41.8 7.70 Under
ceb 3 Levels 49.5 42.1 7.42 Under
deth 3 Levels 48.5 41.6 6.87 Under
dm 3 Levels 48.5 41.7 6.85 Under
iceiceice 3 Levels 48.5 41.8 6.71 Under
lelis 3 Levels 47.5 40.8 6.69 Under
old eleven 3 Levels 46.5 39.9 6.61 Under
yang 3 Levels 46.5 40.7 5.81 Under
wisper 3 Levels 45.5 39.8 5.73 Under
costabile 1 Levels 39.5 44.3 4.81 Over
23savage 1 Levels 40.5 45.2 4.69 Over
jt 3 Levels 46.5 42.1 4.43 Under
monet 1 Levels 41.5 45.8 4.35 Over
frank 3 Levels 42.5 38.5 3.99 Under
s4 3 Levels 42.5 38.8 3.71 Under
yawar 1 Levels 43.5 45.6 2.06 Over
yatoro 1 Levels 43.5 45.3 1.83 Over
nightfall 1 Levels 48.5 46.8 1.69 Under
kuku 3 Levels 40.5 38.9 1.57 Under
ame 1 Levels 49.5 48.0 1.49 Under
eurus 1 Levels 48.5 47.1 1.44 Under
sumail 1 Levels 48.5 47.2 1.29 Under
mnz 1 Levels 46.5 45.3 1.16 Under
xxs 3 Levels 39.5 38.5 1.00 Under
raven 1 Levels 43.5 44.4 0.88 Over
poyoyo 1 Levels 47.5 46.8 0.67 Under
timado 1 Levels 46.5 47.1 0.55 Over
tavo 3 Levels 39.5 39.0 0.55 Under
matumbaman 1 Levels 48.5 48.1 0.41 Under
flyfly 1 Levels 45.5 45.6 0.09 Over
nikobaby 1 Levels 46.5 46.5 0.05 Over

I’ll likely share an individual parlay or two that I put together on Twitter (@tophdfs) or in discord, and feel free to reach out if you have any questions.

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