Welcome! TI is finally here, starting in the wee hours of Thursday morning here in the states, the first games at 3:00 am EDT. Unfortunately, DK has decided not to give us any slates until the playoffs start on the 12th, but have no fear, PrizePicks have stepped up and are bringing us Dota offerings. If you’ve never played on PrizePicks before and want to do me a solid, use promo code: PR-353NVC4 when you sign up (note that this is just my personal referral code, neither TESD nor myself are in any way associated with PrizePicks at the moment).
The way PrizePicks works is essentially you create a 2, 3, 4, or 5 leg parlay on player props. For Dota2, it’s specifically Kills, Deaths, or Player levels for individual players. Make sure you keep of track of which series each prop is for since teams play 2 or even 3 series per day. All series are Bo2 and the prop is for both games combined.
I believe this is the first time PrizePicks has ever offered Dota2, because let’s just say the lines are a liiitle bit off. Specifically the position 2 (mid) props. In Dota, the position 2 is typically the most active on the map, and they actually usually get even more kills than the position 1 (carry). Importantly, this is true in both wins and losses, as Mid in particular still gets a bunch of kills in losses. However, PrizePicks has the lines set like Mid gets significantly fewer kills than Pos 1 (carry). Now, there are a couple of caveats with my data, it’s mostly from the old patch and doesn’t include every single team, but fundamentally nothing has changed with this new patch, the Pos 2 is almost always going to be the playmaker on the team, and will rack up a lot of kills.
But, data is always better than conjecture, so I’ve gone thru and projected how each player will do compared with each prop. Unfortunately I didn’t have time to pull data for players I hadn’t previously pulled data on for DK slates, so there are a bunch of props that I don’t have data for. I am also completely ignoring the “player level” props because I have never pulled data related to player level, plus that is in a lot of ways related to game length more than player performance so I’m likely to stay away from it in general. Obviously this isn’t the most complete data set I’ve ever put together, but it gives a good idea of how much value there is for Pos 2.
I’ve created the below chart to show the plays I like best. It should be pretty self explanatory, but basically it’s player, the prop (kills or deaths), what the line is, what I have them projected for based on their averages in wins and losses and the odds for the series, the difference (absolute value) between the projection and line, and whether that difference is positive (over) or negative (under):
As you can see, the top 8 “best” plays are all Pos 2 kill overs. In addition to those on the chart, I somehow don’t have data for Topson or Somnus, both of whom I really like the Over on Kills for. That makes 10 bets that are very strong overs for pos 2 players on kills.
Now, the question becomes how do we attack the parlays, how many legs do we do and do we try to make correlated picks? Honestly, this is my first time playing on PrizePicks, so I’ll be experimenting as much as anyone. Am I going to 5-leg my top 5 bets from the chart, absolutely, but I’ll also make a few correlated parlays.
However, I will caution to be careful with going too strongly on the correlation. If Emo goes over on kills, that doesn’t necessarily mean he won’t be dying (edit, turns out you can’t put the same player in twice so you can’t do Emo kills and Emo deaths in the same parlay anyways), it could just be a high kill game where he’s getting a bunch of kills and also dying a lot. If he’s getting a lot of kills though, there is a decent chance his opponent, Bryle in this case being the member of his opponent that there is a prop for, is dying a lot, so an Emo kills Over + Bryle Death Over prop makes for a nice correlation.
Mentioning Emo and Bryle reminds me, I have 1 bet that I really like for Thursday. I’m mostly staying away from traditional betting on opening day because it’s a new patch, opening day nerves, Bo2 betting kind of sucks since you’re betting on a 2-0 or not only, etc. However, one line absolutely jumped out at me. That line was IG vs Undying (Emo plays for IG, Bryle for Undying). IG are one of the best teams in the tournament, Undying are the 3rd NA team (and as I mentioned in my TI Preview, NA is a 2 team region). Somehow, IG are only +130 to win 2-0, implying a 43.5% chance to 2-0, or a ~66% chance to win each game. I think there is an at least 80% chance IG wins each game, so I really like IG -1.5 @ +130. That’s the only bet I have down right now for Thursday, I’m mostly focused on PrizePicks and just watching some great Dota.
That’s it for me, hit me up in discord or on Twitter (@Tophdfs) if you have any questions or comments, let’s hope these mids pile up the kills on Thursday!