Welcome back to Dota projections!

Taking a page out of how our LoL projections work, I’ve made projections for each possible positive outcome, a 2-0 win and a 2-1. The projections are based on the last 20 or so maps (more for the teams that were at the recent major) for each team.

A few notes on this slate. ChYuen and Deth have tiny sample sizes for Fnatic at their current positions. Neither has outlandish numbers or anything, but still be a bit careful with them, particularly the 2-1 projections (Fnatic had a 35 kill loss on Wednesday, which is massively inflating the 2-1 projections). Moon is in the exact same boat for SMG, but again his projections seem perfectly reasonable.

Here are the projections:

Team Player DK Role Position Matchup 2-0 Projection 2-1 Projection
OB Neon Natsumi- Core 1 Fnatic 132.6 131.5
OB Neon Yopaj Core 2 Fnatic 132.4 129.8
OB Neon Enryu Core 3 Fnatic 118.9 111.6
OB Neon skem Support 4 Fnatic 121.7 111.1
OB Neon Jaunuel Support 5 Fnatic 105.9 92.1
Fnatic Raven Core 1 OB Neon 159.3 154.6
Fnatic ChYuan Core 2 OB Neon 152.1 168.4
Fnatic Deth Core 3 OB Neon 131.7 148.6
Fnatic Jabz Support 4 OB Neon 113.5 103.5
Fnatic DJ Support 5 OB Neon 125.5 111.0
Boom Dreamocel Core 1 TNC 138.1 141.4
Boom Mikoto Core 2 TNC 149.4 156.7
Boom Fbz Core 3 TNC 135.9 138.9
Boom Hyde Support 4 TNC 108.4 100.3
Boom Khezcute Support 5 TNC 103.1 90.4
Omega Tino Core 1 Galaxy Racer 169.3 163.3
Omega Mac Core 2 Galaxy Racer 195.6 192.3
Omega Sam_H Core 3 Galaxy Racer 164.5 157.2
Omega Shanks Support 4 Galaxy Racer 156.3 147.9
Omega cml Support 5 Galaxy Racer 144.2 132.3
Galaxy Racer inYourdreaM Core 1 Omega 157.0 176.5
Galaxy Racer AlaCrity Core 2 Omega 157.8 178.2
Galaxy Racer Meracle Core 3 Omega 133.2 135.1
Galaxy Racer Poloson Support 4 Omega 125.1 127.9
Galaxy Racer Jhocam Support 5 Omega 122.6 120.0
SMG Midone Core 1 Lilgun 180.0 182.1
SMG Moon Core 2 Lilgun 150.9 145.2
SMG kpii Core 3 Lilgun 135.8 129.7
SMG ah fu Support 4 Lilgun 131.3 124.7
SMG Roddgeee Support 5 Lilgun 122.9 113.6
Lilgun Sanctity- Core 1 SMG 166.9 164.2
Lilgun x123 Core 2 SMG 157.2 156.5
Lilgun MaRvel- Core 3 SMG 141.4 130.3
Lilgun Hishgee Support 4 SMG 136.6 122.9
Lilgun Ace12 Support 5 SMG 137.3 130.5
TNC Gabbi Core 1 Boom 149.2 151.8
TNC Armel Core 2 Boom 149.5 148.3
TNC Bok Core 3 Boom 119.0 112.1
TNC Tims Support 4 Boom 113.0 103.5
TNC Boomy Support 5 Boom 104.3 92.4

As always, I’m happy to answer any questions you have on Discord or on Twitter!

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