Hi everyone! This post has my Dota projections for the 6/3 slate. I’ve taken recent stats from all of the players and teams in both wins and losses, and used them to build out these projections.

The games Thursday are Bo2, meaning that we don’t have to worry about any games not played. Taking a page out of how our LoL projections work, I’ve made projections for each possible outcome, a 2-0 win, a 1-1 tie, or a 2-0 loss. Here they are:

Team Player DK Role Position Matchup 2-0 Projection 1-1 Projection 0-2 Projection
Execration Palos Core 1 Nigma 141.0 96.0 51.0
Execration Yowe Core 2 Nigma 137.7 96.7 55.8
Execration Nikko Core 3 Nigma 128.9 87.5 46.1
Execration BDz Support 4 Nigma 116.4 79.9 43.5
Execration RR Support 5 Nigma 94.2 66.7 39.1
Nigma iLTW Core 1 Execration 114.1 106.8 99.4
Nigma Miracle- Core 2 Execration 136.6 115.0 93.4
Nigma MinD_Control Core 3 Execration 113.2 99.5 85.8
Nigma GH Support 4 Execration 97.7 87.4 77.1
Nigma Kuroky Support 5 Execration 92.7 74.9 57.1
Secret Matumbaman Core 1 IG 92.8 79.2 65.5
Secret Nisha Core 2 IG 108.8 88.1 67.4
Secret Zai Core 3 IG 76.2 61.8 47.4
Secret Yapzor Support 4 IG 65.0 55.7 46.5
Secret Puppey Support 5 IG 67.6 58.1 48.5
VG Poyoyo Core 1 Gambit 102.5 87.2 72.0
VG Ori Core 2 Gambit 108.0 91.2 74.4
VG Old Eleven Core 3 Gambit 89.4 72.3 55.2
VG Pyw Support 4 Gambit 78.2 65.0 51.8
VG DY Support 5 Gambit 64.8 53.2 41.6
IG FlyFly Core 1 Secret 119.5 78.4 37.3
IG Emo Core 2 Secret 135.2 90.0 44.8
IG JT Core 3 Secret 118.0 78.1 38.3
IG Kaka Support 4 Secret 88.4 57.2 26.0
IG Super Support 5 Secret 79.0 55.7 23.5
Gambit Dream Core 1 VG 136.3 89.7 43.2
Gambit Lorenof Core 2 VG 108.4 80.6 52.8
Gambit Afterlife Core 3 VG 106.7 69.3 31.9
Gambit Immersion Support 4 VG 101.0 65.6 30.3
Gambit 633 Support 5 VG 54.7 39.4 24.1

Since Gambit played 6 games on Wednesday, I switched Lorenof and 633 over to projections based just on those games. Small sample alert for sure. 633 struggled, but even with his struggles his projection is probably 15-20 points lower than it should be, at least for a 2-0. His KP% did drop as expected.

I also switched over to using Super’s stats since IG played many times on Wednesday as well. He played pretty well and his projections seem reasonable.

As always, I’m happy to answer any questions you have on Discord or on Twitter!

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