Welcome back to Dota projections!

Taking a page out of how our LoL projections work, I’ve made projections for each possible positive outcome, a 2-0 win and a 2-1. The projections are based on the last 20 or so maps (more for the teams that were at the recent major) for each team.

A few notes on this slate. ChYuen is transitioning for Pos 3 to Pos 2 for Fnatic. His fantasy points per game should go up fairly substantially in wins. Deth is joining as Pos 3, his numbers are based on stats from his previous team, take them with a grain of salt. Moon is making his debut for SMG, his stats are based on when he was on Fnatic. I’d expect them to rise in wins for SMG, as Fnatic are by far the least bloody team on the slate while SMG are much more aggressive.

Here are the projections:

Team Player DK Role Position Matchup 2-0 Projection 2-1 Projection
OB Neon Natsumi- Core 1 MTG 162.6 177.8
OB Neon Yopaj Core 2 MTG 165.1 177.7
OB Neon Enryu Core 3 MTG 145.9 151.3
OB Neon skem Support 4 MTG 148.8 149.0
OB Neon Jaunuel Support 5 MTG 128.7 124.1
Fnatic Raven Core 1 Omega 146.4 148.1
Fnatic ChYuan Core 2 Omega 130.7 127.6
Fnatic Deth Core 3 Omega 146.5 137.3
Fnatic Jabz Support 4 Omega 107.1 103.3
Fnatic DJ Support 5 Omega 121.9 110.4
Boom Dreamocel Core 1 Execration 139.1 146.6
Boom Mikoto Core 2 Execration 150.8 161.6
Boom Fbz Core 3 Execration 138.4 144.2
Boom Hyde Support 4 Execration 106.1 101.2
Boom Khezcute Support 5 Execration 101.7 92.1
Omega Tino Core 1 Fnatic 127.7 117.5
Omega Mac Core 2 Fnatic 148.3 142.8
Omega Sam_H Core 3 Fnatic 124.0 115.6
Omega Shanks Support 4 Fnatic 118.3 106.0
Omega cml Support 5 Fnatic 112.5 98.0
MTG Jackky Core 1 OB Neon 175.0 169.2
MTG Fearless Core 2 OB Neon 176.7 174.1
MTG Masaros Core 3 OB Neon 159.8 147.3
MTG Q Support 4 OB Neon 151.1 142.4
MTG LionaX Support 5 OB Neon 139.9 131.5
SMG Midone Core 1 TNC 170.4 174.2
SMG Moon Core 2 TNC 123.0 120.9
SMG kpii Core 3 TNC 126.4 123.0
SMG ah fu Support 4 TNC 122.9 118.1
SMG Roddgeee Support 5 TNC 117.1 109.0
Execration Palos Core 1 Boom 145.1 137.7
Execration Yowe Core 2 Boom 141.6 136.5
Execration Nikko Core 3 Boom 137.1 126.1
Execration BDz Support 4 Boom 125.4 113.2
Execration RR Support 5 Boom 106.9 93.6
TNC Gabbi Core 1 SMG 162.9 159.7
TNC Armel Core 2 SMG 164.0 157.8
TNC Bok Core 3 SMG 128.7 117.7
TNC Tims Support 4 SMG 123.3 109.9
TNC Boomy Support 5 SMG 112.3 96.9

As always, I’m happy to answer any questions you have on Discord or on Twitter!

Leave a Reply