Welcome back to Dota projections.

Taking a page out of how our LoL projections work, I’ve made projections for each possible positive outcome, a 2-0 win and a 2-1. The projections are based on the last 20 or so maps (more for the teams that were at the recent major) for each team.

A couple of notes for these projections. For Navi, No One and Sonnieko have very limited sample sizes for Navi, take their projections with a grain of salt, although I do think they should be the best scoring core and support for Navi. Also, Heaven has only played 2 games for Nemiga. I couldn’t find any professional matches for him, so I’ve simply carried over Hellscream’s (who he is replacing) projection for Heaven. There are a few other small sample size issues as well, I’ll likely talk about them in my article.

Here are the projections:

 

Team Player DK Role Position Matchup 2-0 Projection 2-1 Projection
Navi V-Tune Core 1 Hellraisers 145.1 131.2
Navi No One Core 2 Hellraisers 165.3 156.2
Navi Ramzes Core 3 Hellraisers 141.0 121.3
Navi Rodjer Support 4 Hellraisers 110.6 87.4
Navi Sonnieko Support 5 Hellraisers 139.5 121.0
Unique Palantimos Core 1 B8 139.9 132.1
Unique fn Core 2 B8 139.1 137.8
Unique Ghostik Core 3 B8 129.6 117.7
Unique Bignum Support 4 B8 108.2 95.1
Unique Cematheslayer Support 5 B8 119.6 107.0
Puckchamp krylat Core 1 Spirit 151.1 148.1
Puckchamp Desperate Core 2 Spirit 171.7 168.8
Puckchamp meLes Core 3 Spirit 155.5 145.8
Puckchamp Astral Support 4 Spirit 119.7 104.1
Puckchamp Dukalis Support 5 Spirit 119.3 103.5
Extremum nefrit Core 1 Nemiga 158.5 149.6
Extremum mellojul Core 2 Nemiga 173.9 167.0
Extremum blizzy Core 3 Nemiga 147.4 131.1
Extremum chu Support 4 Nemiga 136.2 119.6
Extremum G Support 5 Nemiga 142.6 126.6
Hellraisers Cooman Core 1 Navi 121.9 113.5
Hellraisers Young G Core 2 Navi 130.7 124.9
Hellraisers Resolution Core 3 Navi 129.8 119.2
Hellraisers Zayac Support 4 Navi 97.6 82.2
Hellraisers Lil Support 5 Navi 100.1 85.0
Winstrike dyrachyo Core 1 Empire 121.8 112.9
Winstrike re1bl Core 2 Empire 150.5 144.3
Winstrike chshrct Core 3 Empire 127.4 116.9
Winstrike yamich Support 4 Empire 118.3 104.7
Winstrike pantomem Support 5 Empire 105.5 87.8
Nemiga Kiritych Core 1 Extremum 164.0 158.4
Nemiga Ainkrad Core 2 Extremum 150.6 150.9
Nemiga TheChosenOne Core 3 Extremum 130.0 123.1
Nemiga Heaven Support 4 Extremum 104.9 95.8
Nemiga Lodine Support 5 Extremum 116.5 108.5
B8 watson Core 1 Unique 135.2 138.3
B8 dendi Core 2 Unique 129.5 127.7
B8 limitless Core 3 Unique 110.7 101.9
B8 TSA Support 4 Unique 93.4 81.7
B8 NoFear Support 5 Unique 100.5 84.1
Empire Smiling Knight Core 1 Winstrike 143.9 147.6
Empire Depressed Kid Core 2 Winstrike 154.2 155.0
Empire Petushara Core 3 Winstrike 139.1 131.8
Empire Sayuw Support 4 Winstrike 127.1 112.1
Empire Vanskor Support 5 Winstrike 124.3 110.8
Fantastic 5 Rari Core 1 Gambit 139.8 124.6
Fantastic 5 Askold Core 2 Gambit 137.3 140.0
Fantastic 5 Supernova Core 3 Gambit 126.7 112.7
Fantastic 5 Le don Support 4 Gambit 117.5 95.4
Fantastic 5 633 Support 5 Gambit 123.1 112.9
Gambit Dream Core 1 Fantastic 5 137.1 128.6
Gambit Lorenof Core 2 Fantastic 5 140.7 135.2
Gambit Afterlife Core 3 Fantastic 5 114.3 102.2
Gambit Immersion Support 4 Fantastic 5 113.3 98.3
Gambit Eine Support 5 Fantastic 5 85.1 56.8
Spirit Yatoro Core 1 Puckchamp 147.5 141.7
Spirit TorontoTokyo Core 2 Puckchamp 140.0 134.0
Spirit Collapse Core 3 Puckchamp 131.3 121.8
Spirit Miroslaw Support 4 Puckchamp 123.3 110.6
Spirit Miposhka Support 5 Puckchamp 116.1 105.0

As always, I’m happy to answer any questions you have on Discord or on Twitter!

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