Welcome back to Dota projections.

Taking a page out of how our LoL projections work, I’ve made projections for each possible positive outcome, a 2-0 win and a 2-1. The projections are based on the last 20 or so maps (more for the teams that were at the recent major) for each team.

A couple of notes for these projections. For Navi, No One and Sonnieko are both making their debut for the team, their projections are based on the numbers they put up while with Gambit. Also, Heaven is making his debut for Nemiga. I couldn’t find any professional matches for him, so I’ve simply carried over Hellscream’s (who he is replacing) projection for Heaven. There are also several small sample size issues as guys have just joined a number of these teams. Notably both squad1x and sQreen just joined Trident, I think sQreen in particular is likely overprojected relative to his teammates. You also may see some minor differences in the names of the players between the projections and what DK has, I can assure you that it’s all the right people on the slate.

Here are the projections:

Team Player DK Role Position Matchup 2-0 Projection 2-1 Projection
Navi V-Tune Core 1 Extremum 150.1 139.9
Navi No One Core 2 Extremum 158.2 153.8
Navi Ramzes Core 3 Extremum 135.9 118.5
Navi Rodjer Support 4 Extremum 104.5 82.8
Navi Sonnieko Support 5 Extremum 127.7 111.7
Unique Palantimos Core 1 Puckchamp 140.2 131.2
Unique fn Core 2 Puckchamp 139.4 136.0
Unique Ghostik Core 3 Puckchamp 130.0 116.3
Unique Bignum Support 4 Puckchamp 108.4 94.0
Unique Cematheslayer Support 5 Puckchamp 119.9 106.0
Puckchamp krylat Core 1 Unique 130.2 134.3
Puckchamp Desperate Core 2 Unique 146.8 151.0
Puckchamp meLes Core 3 Unique 134.7 130.3
Puckchamp Astral Support 4 Unique 107.2 95.4
Puckchamp Dukalis Support 5 Unique 105.7 93.7
Extremum nefrit Core 1 Navi 132.3 124.1
Extremum mellojul Core 2 Navi 144.6 137.9
Extremum blizzy Core 3 Navi 123.5 109.3
Extremum chu Support 4 Navi 114.6 98.9
Extremum G Support 5 Navi 119.7 103.2
Hellraisers Cooman Core 1 Gambit 125.2 121.3
Hellraisers Young G Core 2 Gambit 134.0 132.0
Hellraisers Resolution Core 3 Gambit 133.5 124.6
Hellraisers Zayac Support 4 Gambit 99.4 85.8
Hellraisers Lil Support 5 Gambit 104.5 90.9
Winstrike dyrachyo Core 1 Spirit 134.0 127.0
Winstrike re1bl Core 2 Spirit 166.6 161.8
Winstrike chshrct Core 3 Spirit 140.4 131.1
Winstrike yamich Support 4 Spirit 130.0 116.0
Winstrike pantomem Support 5 Spirit 115.6 98.0
Nemiga Kiritych Core 1 Trident 144.5 133.4
Nemiga Ainkrad Core 2 Trident 143.1 136.5
Nemiga TheChosenOne Core 3 Trident 116.7 104.5
Nemiga Heaven Support 4 Trident 97.3 83.4
Nemiga Lodine Support 5 Trident 108.6 95.6
B8 watson Core 1 NoTechies 151.9 158.0
B8 dendi Core 2 NoTechies 153.9 154.7
B8 limitless Core 3 NoTechies 129.9 123.0
B8 TSA Support 4 NoTechies 110.2 100.2
B8 NoFear Support 5 NoTechies 117.2 102.2
NoTechies layme Core 1 B8 136.4 123.8
NoTechies dame Core 2 B8 127.1 121.6
NoTechies dkfogas Core 3 B8 116.9 110.1
NoTechies xsvamp1re Support 4 B8 120.6 107.4
NoTechies solo Support 5 B8 110.0 95.5
Trident Munkushi Core 1 Nemiga 167.0 162.6
Trident squad1x Core 2 Nemiga 158.9 158.3
Trident Fraser Core 3 Nemiga 149.1 137.0
Trident SoulEater Support 4 Nemiga 131.2 116.4
Trident sQreen Support 5 Nemiga 168.3 154.8
Gambit Dream Core 1 Hellraisers 148.7 139.4
Gambit Lorenof Core 2 Hellraisers 151.0 145.6
Gambit Afterlife Core 3 Hellraisers 123.0 109.9
Gambit Immersion Support 4 Hellraisers 121.1 105.8
Gambit Eine Support 5 Hellraisers 95.8 66.6
Spirit Yatoro Core 1 Winstrike 140.9 135.6
Spirit TorontoTokyo Core 2 Winstrike 135.4 129.8
Spirit Collapse Core 3 Winstrike 126.7 117.5
Spirit Miroslaw Support 4 Winstrike 116.8 104.5
Spirit Miposhka Support 5 Winstrike 110.7 99.9

As always, I’m happy to answer any questions you have on Discord or on Twitter!

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