EUW TI Qualifiers continue on Thursday with another 6 game slate of Bo3’s. Lock is again at 5:00 am EDT, and the games are:
Vikin.gg (73% implied win probability) vs Chicken Fighters
Hellbear Smashers (62%) vs Ghost Frogs
Spider Pigzs (72%) vs Team Bald Reborn
Brame (63%) vs Into the Breach
Liquid (52%) vs Tundra
Nigma (53%) vs OG
Here are the stats for each team as a whole from their recent games are compared to the averages. I made a slight chance in how I calculate the averages, instead of doing just the teams on the slate, the averages are now based on the EUW region as a whole, at least the teams I’ve pulled data for (which is all of the teams that have been on these 2 slates plus T1). That should help better normalize the stats.
|Team||Averages||Nigma||Liquid||OG||Tundra||Vikin.gg||Brame||Spider Pigzs||Hellbear Smashers||Into the Breach||Ghost Frogs||Chicken Fighters||Bald Reborn|
|Avg Length Win||39.4||0.87||0.89||0.90||1.10||1.05||0.84||0.94||0.99||0.87||1.03||0.88||1.12|
|Avg Length Loss||39.4||1.02||0.97||0.95||0.96||1.09||1.09||0.94||1.11||1.12||0.94||0.92||1.00|
Two of the highest kill death teams in the region got eliminated on Wednesday, leaving us with only a few teams that are above average in terms of deaths. Bald Reborn and Into the Breach are the (true) underdogs with above average DPL, while both OG and Nigma are above average in DPL. The best overall setup is Brame. They are above average in kills, favorites, and are facing the team (Into the Breach) that dies the most in losses on the slate. Spider Pigz and Hellbear Smashers are also each in okay spots based on the numbers.
Pricing among the favorites is tiiight on Thursday. The Nigma/OG game is the only exception. You know what that means, Miracle (and Nigma as a whole) chalk. OG themselves will likely see decent ownership. While neither of these teams have numbers that jump off the page, they have a tendency to get into looong and high kill games when they play each other, I’ll definitely have exposure to this game.
My main focus though, will be on Brame. They’re in a great spot to get a ton of kills, and I think they should be able to handle Into the Breach. To fit them you can either go with Nigma (might need to play offlaners of support captain), OG, or another underdog. I think the obvious spot is Tundra. They’re priced like big underdogs but are actually in a coinflip. I do expect them to have some ownership though because of the tight pricing. The other spot I like is Team Bald Reborn. This matchup is not a mismatch like the odds imply, in fact Team Bald 2-0’d the Pigzs when they met (Pigzs were “Level Up” at the time) during the DPC season. Bald should definitely be underdogs, but it should be more like 60/40.
If I had more lineups I’d want some exposure to Hellbear Smashers, but with only 7 I’m not sure I’ll get there. I’ll maybe us HS once instead of Brame, but Brame will be my expensive favorite I get exposure to in at least 4-5 of my 7 lineups.
That’s it for me, good luck on Thursday!