EUW TI Qualifiers finally kick off on Wednesday, and DK has gone back to having all the games, giving us a 6 game slate. Lock is at 5 am EDT and the games are:

Nigma (86% implied win probability) vs Hellbear Smashers

OG (67%) vs Vikin.gg

Tundra (73%) vs Brame

Liquid (84%) vs Spider Pigzs (aka Level Up)

Chicken Fighters (75%) vs No Bounty Hunter

Into The Breach (88%) vs Hippomaniacs

The Stats

Here are the stats for each team as a whole from their recent games are compared to the averages. I made a slight chance in how I calculate the averages, instead of doing just the teams on the slate, the averages are now based on the EUW region as a whole, at least the teams I’ve pulled data for (which is all of the teams that have been on these 2 slates plus T1). That should help better normalize the stats.

Team Averages Nigma Liquid OG Tundra Vikin.gg Brame Spider Pigzs Hellbear Smashers Into the Breach No Bounty Hunter Chicken Fighters Hippomaniacs
KPW 32.0 0.98 0.98 0.91 0.96 0.83 1.08 0.97 1.19 1.28 1.11 1.04 0.99
DPW 16.9 0.98 0.77 1.28 1.09 0.82 0.93 0.93 1.38 1.37 1.13 0.95 0.75
KPL 18.8 1.05 0.94 0.94 0.82 0.95 1.19 0.99 1.22 1.31 0.93 0.92 1.15
DPL 33.2 1.05 0.95 1.10 0.89 0.92 0.99 0.93 1.01 1.19 1.28 0.91 1.10
Avg Length Win 39.5 0.86 0.85 0.91 1.09 1.01 0.84 0.93 0.98 0.92 0.86 0.89 0.70
Avg Length Loss 39.5 1.01 0.96 0.90 0.96 1.14 1.08 0.91 1.16 1.12 0.89 0.91 0.96

I didn’t have a chance to pull all the individual player stats, so I’m strictly looking at matchups for this slate. Interestingly, despite being super high kill during the major and ESL One, Nigma actually come in slightly below average in kills per win. Their opponent, Hellbear Smashers, come in well above average in all the kill stats EXCEPT deaths per loss. Nigma are going to be mega chalk because for some reason DK never prices them up enough, but there are other places we can look. Into the Breach get a ton of kills and they Hippomaniacs die a good amount in losses. No Bounty Hunter die a ton in losses and Chicken Fighters get an above average amount of kills.

Interestingly, OG die a lot in both wins and losses, but don’t actual get that many kills in either wins or losses. Their matchup with Vikin.gg looks like it could be the lowest scoring on the slate.

Slate Analysis

As I alluded to above, Nigma are definitely going to be the chalk. I’m going to have a bit, but my primary targets are going to be Chicken Fighters and Into the Breach. No one knows much about these teams so I’m hoping that will keep their ownership down a bit. I’m going to almost entirely fade OG, and Liquid are not a priority for me either.

I really don’t plan on using much if any underdogs (unless I need to for price reasons), I think there are enough games (6) that we can be different even among the favorites.

Good luck on Wednesday!

Leave a Reply