Dota is back on Wednesday! We’re finally to the playoffs, which means no more Bo2. Everything from here-on out is Bo3 unless otherwise indicated. We have a great 4 game slate with 6 new teams that had byes straight to the group stage. A couple of comments on this. 1) These are the teams that won their regions, not necessarily the favorites to win the tournament. The teams that made it through the group stage from stronger regions are very likely better than the winners from weaker regions. Anyways, lock is at 5 am EDT and the games are:

Aster (78% implied win probability) vs T1

LGD (71%) vs Alliance

Nigma (59%) vs VP

Quincy Crew (69%) vs NoPing

 

The Teams

In the interest of time, both mine writing and yours reading, I’m going to present the stats without comment today. Here are the raw stats for the teams as a whole, note that the averages are for all teams who have played in the tournament so far, including those eliminated:

Team Nigma NoPing Quincy Crew PSG.LGD T1 Alliance VP Aster Averages
KPW 32.9 33.1 34.8 30.8 28.1 28.7 26.3 30.5 31.0
DPW 17.5 18.5 11.9 17.0 18.3 18.7 11.9 17.8 16.7
KPL 23.1 20.3 16.5 15.7 17.3 17.5 11.6 18.7 17.8
DPL 37.9 26.3 27.5 32.3 32.2 33.2 25.4 28.4 31.2
Avg Length Win 35.5 31.7 34.2 33.8 40.9 36.4 31.8 43.5 36.1
Avg Length Loss 43.8 25.7 35.3 36.9 41.7 43.5 36.5 38.4 38.5

 

And normalized to the average:

Team Averages Nigma Vs Avg Noping vs Avg QC vs Avg LGD vs Avg T1 vs Avg Alliance vs Avg VP vs Avg Aster vs Avg
KPW 31.0 1.06 1.07 1.12 0.99 0.90 0.92 0.85 0.98
DPW 16.7 1.04 1.10 0.71 1.02 1.09 1.12 0.71 1.07
KPL 17.8 1.30 1.14 0.93 0.88 0.97 0.99 0.65 1.05
DPL 31.2 1.22 0.84 0.88 1.04 1.03 1.06 0.81 0.91
Avg Length Win 36.1 0.98 0.88 0.95 0.94 1.13 1.01 0.88 1.20
Avg Length Loss 38.5 1.14 0.67 0.92 0.96 1.08 1.13 0.95 1.00

Now for the team by team breakdown:

Aster

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Aster Monet 1 57.2 64.8% 30.8 62.6% -26.4 -2.2%
Aster White Album 2 51.2 62.0% 32.6 65.3% -18.5 3.2%
Aster Xxs 3 53.0 68.9% 28.7 64.5% -24.3 -4.3%
Aster Borax 4 43.9 65.0% 23.1 65.6% -20.8 0.6%
Aster LaNm 5 38.2 68.9% 16.5 59.9% -21.7 -9.0%

T1

 

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
T1 23savage 1 61.4 74.9% 29.0 56.9% -32.4 -18.0%
T1 Karl 2 56.4 74.3% 35.1 74.8% -21.3 0.5%
T1 Kuku 3 50.6 74.3% 22.4 60.2% -28.2 -14.2%
T1 Xepher 4 34.3 61.2% 14.6 56.9% -19.7 -4.3%
T1 Whitemon 5 40.5 76.5% 14.0 56.1% -26.5 -20.4%

LGD

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
PSG.LGD Ame 1 54.3 63.3% 27.5 65.7% -26.7 2.5%
PSG.LGD Nothingtosay 2 55.6 66.5% 23.5 64.8% -32.2 -1.7%
PSG.LGD Faith_bian 3 47.3 64.4% 22.2 65.7% -25.1 1.3%
PSG.LGD XinQ 4 48.9 71.0% 19.0 71.3% -29.9 0.3%
PSG.LGD y` 5 41.4 63.7% 16.3 68.5% -25.1 4.8%

Alliance

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Alliance Nikobaby 1 56.2 69.7% 38.6 76.6% -17.7 6.9%
Alliance Limmp 2 49.9 72.0% 31.7 76.6% -18.2 4.5%
Alliance s4 3 49.3 76.2% 21.5 66.1% -27.8 -10.1%
Alliance Handsken 4 36.1 62.9% 19.2 67.7% -16.9 4.8%
Alliance fng 5 37.5 62.3% 16.1 63.5% -21.4 1.2%

Nigma

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Nigma iLTW 1 57.1 62.7% 37.2 62.7% -19.9 -0.1%
Nigma Miracle- 2 63.2 74.0% 37.6 65.2% -25.6 -8.8%
Nigma MinD_Control 3 53.2 68.7% 33.3 67.0% -19.9 -1.7%
Nigma GH 4 48.1 69.7% 27.7 71.4% -20.4 1.7%
Nigma Kuroky 5 43.6 63.4% 21.8 59.1% -21.8 -4.3%

VP

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
VP Nightfall 1 49.9 65.2% 17.2 51.7% -32.6 -13.5%
VP gpk 2 53.4 76.7% 22.8 77.6% -30.5 0.9%
VP DM 3 44.8 70.5% 16.0 65.5% -28.8 -5.0%
VP Save- 4 35.3 61.4% 13.7 70.7% -21.6 9.3%
VP Kingslayer 5 40.7 54.4% 12.6 70.7% -28.1 16.2%

Quincy Crew

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Quincy Crew Yawar 1 57.8 55.2% 33.1 72.7% -24.6 17.5%
Quincy Crew Quinn 2 68.8 72.7% 23.5 66.7% -45.4 -6.0%
Quincy Crew Lelis 3 60.9 65.1% 22.2 63.6% -38.7 -1.5%
Quincy Crew MSS 4 56.2 66.9% 19.2 63.6% -37.0 -3.3%
Quincy Crew SVG 5 41.6 55.9% 18.6 66.7% -22.9 10.7%

NoPing

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
NoPing hFn 1 64.7 68.1% 27.7 52.5% -37.0 -15.7%
NoPing Darkmago 2 65.3 75.0% 28.3 63.9% -37.0 -11.1%
NoPing Oscar 3 57.5 73.6% 30.3 63.9% -27.2 -9.7%
NoPing Matthew 4 48.4 66.5% 23.9 67.2% -24.6 0.7%
NoPing Panda 5 40.7 64.1% 21.7 62.3% -19.0 -1.8%

As usual, you should really take a look at the FP/M in wins to see how each team plays. Some teams play much more through their offlane than others.

My Thoughts

People have gotten really used to smashing Nigma, Miracle in particular, every time they play. They’re big favorites again against VP. However, VP plays a style of Dota that leads to a lot of quick, low kill games, even when they lose. Now, it’s an admitted small sample size of losses, and a lot of the wins are stomps against lesser opponents,  but even going back to the last major, when VP played against international competition, their games still had extremely low kill totals. Now, Nigma could impose their will and force a high kill style of game(s), but I think it’s less likely than usually in this matchup, and I’m going to mostly fade them.

LGD are my favorite stack on the slate. Yes, Alliance are technically the EU champion, but they’re coming off the back of a “scandal” for lack of a better term. ESL sent out an email that coaches would be allowed in game this season, matching changes made in CSGO, and Alliance were the only team to take advantage of this. This is a huge advantage in Dota as someone who can see everything his team sees without having to worry about playing an actual hero is a massive advantage. Once it was made public Valve stepped in and said while Alliance won’t be punished, no more coaches in game. There are some serious questions about how they’ll perform now that they’re back to a level playing field. Long story short, I don’t actually think they’re the best team from EU and I don’t think they’re going to beat LGD.

If you can afford them, I also like Quincy Crew and Aster. Both should win 2-0 and both project pretty well.

The underdog stack I’m going to look to is VP. If not for Nigma looking so strong in groups VP would probably be the favorites here. They have plenty of film on Nigma and should be able to come up with strategies to beat them. Also, when Nigma get behind they tend to try to group up and take fights, which could lead to VP getting more kills than they normally do in wins.

Captain Strategy

I’m going to do my best to get to core captains, but with pricing moderately tight and me not being super interested in underdogs outside of VP, I may have to dip into Pos 4 captains. I think this is fine (think jungle captain in LoL), especially since guys line XinQ score really well overall.

That’s it for me, good luck on Wednesday!

 

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