Welcome back to some Draftkings Dota analysis! Saturday should be a fun slate, we have some fun matchups on it. I’m again going to give per map probability followed by the chances of each outcome based on that per map probability. Lock is at 7:00 am EST again, and the games are:

EG (55% implied probability per map) vs VG (45% per map)

EG 2-0: 30% probability, 1-1 tie: 50% probability, VG 2-0: 20% probability

LGD (73% per map) vs Spirit (27% per map)

LGD 2-0: 53% probability, 1-1 tie: 39% probability, Spirit 2-0: 8% probability

Nigma (57% per map) vs Liquid (43% per map)

Nigma 2-0: 33% probability, 1-1 tie: 49% probability, Liquid 2-0: 18% probability

Beastcoast (59% per map) vs TNC (41% per map)

Beastcoast 2-0: 35% probability, 1-1 tie: 48% probability, TNC 2-0: 17% probability

 

The Teams

In the interest of time, both mine writing and yours reading, I’m going to present the stats without comment today. Here are the raw stats for the teams as a whole, note that the averages are for all teams who have played in the tournament so far, including those eliminated:

Team Nigma Liquid VG PSG.LGD TNC Spirit EG Beastcoast Averages
KPW 32.9 32.0 29.3 30.8 29.9 30.4 29.6 31.6 31.4
DPW 17.5 12.1 15.5 17.0 17.3 14.5 12.8 23.0 17.0
KPL 23.1 18.3 19.3 15.7 18.6 16.6 19.4 22.0 17.9
DPL 37.9 31.6 37.6 32.3 30.4 31.0 25.3 36.7 31.7
Avg Length Win 35.5 32.2 37.0 33.8 34.9 37.7 35.0 34.7 36.1
Avg Length Loss 43.8 40.4 41.0 36.9 39.2 39.5 42.2 37.5 38.4

And normalized to the average:

Team Averages Nigma Vs Avg Liquid vs Avg VG vs Avg LGD vs Avg TNC vs Avg Spririt vs Avg EG vs Avg Beastcoast vs Avg
KPW 31.4 1.05 1.02 0.93 0.98 0.95 0.97 0.94 1.00
DPW 17.0 1.03 0.71 0.91 1.00 1.02 0.85 0.75 1.35
KPL 17.9 1.29 1.02 1.08 0.88 1.04 0.92 1.08 1.23
DPL 31.7 1.20 1.00 1.19 1.02 0.96 0.98 0.80 1.16
Avg Length Win 36.1 0.98 0.89 1.02 0.94 0.97 1.04 0.97 0.96
Avg Length Loss 38.4 1.14 1.05 1.07 0.96 1.02 1.03 1.10 0.98

Now for the team by team breakdown:

EG

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
EG Arteezy 1 55.2 67.3% 31.5 66.7% -23.7 -0.7%
EG Abed 2 56.2 73.0% 30.4 70.8% -25.7 -2.1%
EG iceiceice 3 42.5 60.8% 20.4 55.0% -22.1 -5.8%
EG Cr1t- 4 45.0 71.3% 21.1 71.7% -23.9 0.4%
EG Fly 5 38.9 64.8% 19.5 64.2% -19.4 -0.6%

 

VG

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
VG Poyoyo 1 55.2 67.3% 32.9 63.4% -22.3 -3.9%
VG Ori 2 57.3 72.5% 34.8 74.6% -22.5 2.0%
VG Old Eleven 3 48.6 66.3% 25.0 63.4% -23.6 -2.9%
VG Pyw 4 42.5 67.5% 23.4 69.0% -19.1 1.5%
VG DY 5 37.5 63.2% 18.6 63.8% -18.9 0.6%

 

LGD

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
PSG.LGD Ame 1 54.3 63.3% 27.5 65.7% -26.7 2.5%
PSG.LGD Nothingtosay 2 55.6 66.5% 23.5 64.8% -32.2 -1.7%
PSG.LGD Faith_bian 3 47.3 64.4% 22.2 65.7% -25.1 1.3%
PSG.LGD XinQ 4 48.9 71.0% 19.0 71.3% -29.9 0.3%
PSG.LGD y` 5 41.4 63.7% 16.3 68.5% -25.1 4.8%

 

Spirit

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Spirit Yatoro 1 56.4 64.5% 21.7 50.0% -34.7 -14.5%
Spirit TorontoTokyo 2 54.0 67.9% 23.1 56.1% -31.0 -11.8%
Spirit Collapse 3 50.1 68.4% 22.2 61.5% -28.0 -6.9%
Spirit Miroslaw 4 44.3 68.6% 21.8 78.4% -22.5 9.8%
Spirit Miposhka 5 42.6 67.6% 24.3 80.4% -18.3 12.8%

 

Nigma

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Nigma iLTW 1 57.1 62.7% 37.2 62.7% -19.9 -0.1%
Nigma Miracle- 2 63.2 74.0% 37.6 65.2% -25.6 -8.8%
Nigma MinD_Control 3 53.2 68.7% 33.3 67.0% -19.9 -1.7%
Nigma GH 4 48.1 69.7% 27.7 71.4% -20.4 1.7%
Nigma Kuroky 5 43.6 63.4% 21.8 59.1% -21.8 -4.3%

 

Liquid

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Liquid miCKe 1 54.4 61.6% 29.3 60.3% -25.0 -1.2%
Liquid Sumail 2 62.0 65.9% 31.7 65.1% -30.2 -0.9%
Liquid qojqva 3 54.0 65.0% 27.6 74.6% -26.4 9.6%
Liquid Taiga 4 53.9 69.4% 20.9 62.7% -33.0 -6.7%
Liquid Insania 5 40.6 54.7% 17.1 62.7% -23.4 8.0%

 

Beastcoast

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Beastcoast K1 1 56.7 64.5% 29.3 49.5% -27.3 -15.0%
Beastcoast Chris Luck 2 56.9 72.2% 33.0 65.7% -23.9 -6.5%
Beastcoast Wisper 3 57.0 72.5% 30.9 67.7% -26.1 -4.8%
Beastcoast Scofield 4 35.3 60.7% 25.0 66.7% -10.3 6.0%
Beastcoast Stinger 5 33.4 56.9% 23.2 62.1% -10.3 5.3%

 

TNC

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
TNC Gabbi 1 62.2 73.7% 30.7 65.1% -31.5 -8.6%
TNC Armel 2 61.9 75.4% 27.1 60.0% -34.8 -15.4%
TNC Bok 3 43.6 62.6% 22.9 60.9% -20.8 -1.7%
TNC Tims 4 45.3 66.8% 19.9 62.3% -25.4 -4.5%
TNC Boomy 5 39.6 63.2% 17.4 58.1% -22.2 -5.1%

 

As usual, you should really take a look at the FP/M in wins to see how each team plays. Some teams play much more through their offlane than others. For example, on Beastcoast, Wisper actually (just barely) has the highest FP/M in wins over the sample of games in my data. Meanwhile, Bok is way below Gabbi and Armel for FNC. Keep that in mind when building lineups.

Top Stacks

With the contests, and thus max entries, shrinking, we need to be a bit judicious about who we want to stack. I really like TNC on Saturday. That series should be bloody, and I personally think TNC are better than Beastcoast right now despite Beastcoast being slight favorites. Even if they lose, Beastcoast dies a LOT when they win, 35% higher than the average, so TNC could score well in a lost map. I’ll be using a ton of Gabbi and Armel and mixing in some Tims as well.

I’ll be pairing my TNC with EG, and then both sides of the Nigma/Liquid game. I see those 3 teams as having the most upside for a shootout.

My fade of the day is going to be LGD. They’re huge favorites, but they don’t typically score that well and Spirit are below average in kills per loss, even after giving up 54 kills to Nigma on Friday. I think it’s likely LGD get 2 clean wins here and Spirit don’t put up that strong of a fight. I’d rather hope for high kill affairs elsewhere (in GPP’s).

Captain Strategy

I’m still doing my best to stick to cores only at captain. I don’t mind a Taiga,GH, or Xinq captain if you want to try to fit more high priced players, but on this slate specifically I’m going to use a ton of TNC as my salary savings so I don’t think you need to go there very often.

That’s it for me, good luck on Saturday!

 

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