Welcome back to some Draftkings Dota analysis! Saturday should be a fun slate, we have some fun matchups on it. I’m again going to give per map probability followed by the chances of each outcome based on that per map probability. Lock is at 7:00 am EST again, and the games are:
EG (55% implied probability per map) vs VG (45% per map)
EG 2-0: 30% probability, 1-1 tie: 50% probability, VG 2-0: 20% probability
LGD (73% per map) vs Spirit (27% per map)
LGD 2-0: 53% probability, 1-1 tie: 39% probability, Spirit 2-0: 8% probability
Nigma (57% per map) vs Liquid (43% per map)
Nigma 2-0: 33% probability, 1-1 tie: 49% probability, Liquid 2-0: 18% probability
Beastcoast (59% per map) vs TNC (41% per map)
Beastcoast 2-0: 35% probability, 1-1 tie: 48% probability, TNC 2-0: 17% probability
The Teams
In the interest of time, both mine writing and yours reading, I’m going to present the stats without comment today. Here are the raw stats for the teams as a whole, note that the averages are for all teams who have played in the tournament so far, including those eliminated:
| Team | Nigma | Liquid | VG | PSG.LGD | TNC | Spirit | EG | Beastcoast | Averages |
| KPW | 32.9 | 32.0 | 29.3 | 30.8 | 29.9 | 30.4 | 29.6 | 31.6 | 31.4 |
| DPW | 17.5 | 12.1 | 15.5 | 17.0 | 17.3 | 14.5 | 12.8 | 23.0 | 17.0 |
| KPL | 23.1 | 18.3 | 19.3 | 15.7 | 18.6 | 16.6 | 19.4 | 22.0 | 17.9 |
| DPL | 37.9 | 31.6 | 37.6 | 32.3 | 30.4 | 31.0 | 25.3 | 36.7 | 31.7 |
| Avg Length Win | 35.5 | 32.2 | 37.0 | 33.8 | 34.9 | 37.7 | 35.0 | 34.7 | 36.1 |
| Avg Length Loss | 43.8 | 40.4 | 41.0 | 36.9 | 39.2 | 39.5 | 42.2 | 37.5 | 38.4 |
And normalized to the average:
| Team | Averages | Nigma Vs Avg | Liquid vs Avg | VG vs Avg | LGD vs Avg | TNC vs Avg | Spririt vs Avg | EG vs Avg | Beastcoast vs Avg |
| KPW | 31.4 | 1.05 | 1.02 | 0.93 | 0.98 | 0.95 | 0.97 | 0.94 | 1.00 |
| DPW | 17.0 | 1.03 | 0.71 | 0.91 | 1.00 | 1.02 | 0.85 | 0.75 | 1.35 |
| KPL | 17.9 | 1.29 | 1.02 | 1.08 | 0.88 | 1.04 | 0.92 | 1.08 | 1.23 |
| DPL | 31.7 | 1.20 | 1.00 | 1.19 | 1.02 | 0.96 | 0.98 | 0.80 | 1.16 |
| Avg Length Win | 36.1 | 0.98 | 0.89 | 1.02 | 0.94 | 0.97 | 1.04 | 0.97 | 0.96 |
| Avg Length Loss | 38.4 | 1.14 | 1.05 | 1.07 | 0.96 | 1.02 | 1.03 | 1.10 | 0.98 |
Now for the team by team breakdown:
EG
| Team | Player | Position | FP/M Wins | KP% Wins | FP/M Losses | KP% Losses | FP Diff Losses | KP Diff Losses |
| EG | Arteezy | 1 | 55.2 | 67.3% | 31.5 | 66.7% | -23.7 | -0.7% |
| EG | Abed | 2 | 56.2 | 73.0% | 30.4 | 70.8% | -25.7 | -2.1% |
| EG | iceiceice | 3 | 42.5 | 60.8% | 20.4 | 55.0% | -22.1 | -5.8% |
| EG | Cr1t- | 4 | 45.0 | 71.3% | 21.1 | 71.7% | -23.9 | 0.4% |
| EG | Fly | 5 | 38.9 | 64.8% | 19.5 | 64.2% | -19.4 | -0.6% |
VG
| Team | Player | Position | FP/M Wins | KP% Wins | FP/M Losses | KP% Losses | FP Diff Losses | KP Diff Losses |
| VG | Poyoyo | 1 | 55.2 | 67.3% | 32.9 | 63.4% | -22.3 | -3.9% |
| VG | Ori | 2 | 57.3 | 72.5% | 34.8 | 74.6% | -22.5 | 2.0% |
| VG | Old Eleven | 3 | 48.6 | 66.3% | 25.0 | 63.4% | -23.6 | -2.9% |
| VG | Pyw | 4 | 42.5 | 67.5% | 23.4 | 69.0% | -19.1 | 1.5% |
| VG | DY | 5 | 37.5 | 63.2% | 18.6 | 63.8% | -18.9 | 0.6% |
LGD
| Team | Player | Position | FP/M Wins | KP% Wins | FP/M Losses | KP% Losses | FP Diff Losses | KP Diff Losses |
| PSG.LGD | Ame | 1 | 54.3 | 63.3% | 27.5 | 65.7% | -26.7 | 2.5% |
| PSG.LGD | Nothingtosay | 2 | 55.6 | 66.5% | 23.5 | 64.8% | -32.2 | -1.7% |
| PSG.LGD | Faith_bian | 3 | 47.3 | 64.4% | 22.2 | 65.7% | -25.1 | 1.3% |
| PSG.LGD | XinQ | 4 | 48.9 | 71.0% | 19.0 | 71.3% | -29.9 | 0.3% |
| PSG.LGD | y` | 5 | 41.4 | 63.7% | 16.3 | 68.5% | -25.1 | 4.8% |
Spirit
| Team | Player | Position | FP/M Wins | KP% Wins | FP/M Losses | KP% Losses | FP Diff Losses | KP Diff Losses |
| Spirit | Yatoro | 1 | 56.4 | 64.5% | 21.7 | 50.0% | -34.7 | -14.5% |
| Spirit | TorontoTokyo | 2 | 54.0 | 67.9% | 23.1 | 56.1% | -31.0 | -11.8% |
| Spirit | Collapse | 3 | 50.1 | 68.4% | 22.2 | 61.5% | -28.0 | -6.9% |
| Spirit | Miroslaw | 4 | 44.3 | 68.6% | 21.8 | 78.4% | -22.5 | 9.8% |
| Spirit | Miposhka | 5 | 42.6 | 67.6% | 24.3 | 80.4% | -18.3 | 12.8% |
Nigma
| Team | Player | Position | FP/M Wins | KP% Wins | FP/M Losses | KP% Losses | FP Diff Losses | KP Diff Losses |
| Nigma | iLTW | 1 | 57.1 | 62.7% | 37.2 | 62.7% | -19.9 | -0.1% |
| Nigma | Miracle- | 2 | 63.2 | 74.0% | 37.6 | 65.2% | -25.6 | -8.8% |
| Nigma | MinD_Control | 3 | 53.2 | 68.7% | 33.3 | 67.0% | -19.9 | -1.7% |
| Nigma | GH | 4 | 48.1 | 69.7% | 27.7 | 71.4% | -20.4 | 1.7% |
| Nigma | Kuroky | 5 | 43.6 | 63.4% | 21.8 | 59.1% | -21.8 | -4.3% |
Liquid
| Team | Player | Position | FP/M Wins | KP% Wins | FP/M Losses | KP% Losses | FP Diff Losses | KP Diff Losses |
| Liquid | miCKe | 1 | 54.4 | 61.6% | 29.3 | 60.3% | -25.0 | -1.2% |
| Liquid | Sumail | 2 | 62.0 | 65.9% | 31.7 | 65.1% | -30.2 | -0.9% |
| Liquid | qojqva | 3 | 54.0 | 65.0% | 27.6 | 74.6% | -26.4 | 9.6% |
| Liquid | Taiga | 4 | 53.9 | 69.4% | 20.9 | 62.7% | -33.0 | -6.7% |
| Liquid | Insania | 5 | 40.6 | 54.7% | 17.1 | 62.7% | -23.4 | 8.0% |
Beastcoast
| Team | Player | Position | FP/M Wins | KP% Wins | FP/M Losses | KP% Losses | FP Diff Losses | KP Diff Losses |
| Beastcoast | K1 | 1 | 56.7 | 64.5% | 29.3 | 49.5% | -27.3 | -15.0% |
| Beastcoast | Chris Luck | 2 | 56.9 | 72.2% | 33.0 | 65.7% | -23.9 | -6.5% |
| Beastcoast | Wisper | 3 | 57.0 | 72.5% | 30.9 | 67.7% | -26.1 | -4.8% |
| Beastcoast | Scofield | 4 | 35.3 | 60.7% | 25.0 | 66.7% | -10.3 | 6.0% |
| Beastcoast | Stinger | 5 | 33.4 | 56.9% | 23.2 | 62.1% | -10.3 | 5.3% |
TNC
| Team | Player | Position | FP/M Wins | KP% Wins | FP/M Losses | KP% Losses | FP Diff Losses | KP Diff Losses |
| TNC | Gabbi | 1 | 62.2 | 73.7% | 30.7 | 65.1% | -31.5 | -8.6% |
| TNC | Armel | 2 | 61.9 | 75.4% | 27.1 | 60.0% | -34.8 | -15.4% |
| TNC | Bok | 3 | 43.6 | 62.6% | 22.9 | 60.9% | -20.8 | -1.7% |
| TNC | Tims | 4 | 45.3 | 66.8% | 19.9 | 62.3% | -25.4 | -4.5% |
| TNC | Boomy | 5 | 39.6 | 63.2% | 17.4 | 58.1% | -22.2 | -5.1% |
As usual, you should really take a look at the FP/M in wins to see how each team plays. Some teams play much more through their offlane than others. For example, on Beastcoast, Wisper actually (just barely) has the highest FP/M in wins over the sample of games in my data. Meanwhile, Bok is way below Gabbi and Armel for FNC. Keep that in mind when building lineups.
Top Stacks
With the contests, and thus max entries, shrinking, we need to be a bit judicious about who we want to stack. I really like TNC on Saturday. That series should be bloody, and I personally think TNC are better than Beastcoast right now despite Beastcoast being slight favorites. Even if they lose, Beastcoast dies a LOT when they win, 35% higher than the average, so TNC could score well in a lost map. I’ll be using a ton of Gabbi and Armel and mixing in some Tims as well.
I’ll be pairing my TNC with EG, and then both sides of the Nigma/Liquid game. I see those 3 teams as having the most upside for a shootout.
My fade of the day is going to be LGD. They’re huge favorites, but they don’t typically score that well and Spirit are below average in kills per loss, even after giving up 54 kills to Nigma on Friday. I think it’s likely LGD get 2 clean wins here and Spirit don’t put up that strong of a fight. I’d rather hope for high kill affairs elsewhere (in GPP’s).
Captain Strategy
I’m still doing my best to stick to cores only at captain. I don’t mind a Taiga,GH, or Xinq captain if you want to try to fit more high priced players, but on this slate specifically I’m going to use a ton of TNC as my salary savings so I don’t think you need to go there very often.
That’s it for me, good luck on Saturday!
