Welcome! SEA qualifiers continue on Wednesday night/Thursday morning with another 4 game slate. DK again cut 2 games off, although today I have no idea why they cut the 2 off that they did. Oh well, a 4 game slate is still really nice and less work for me to research I suppose. The games on the slate are:

SMG (80% implied win probability) vs Lilgun

Omega (60%) vs Galaxy Racer

OB Neon (57%) vs Fnatic

TNC (61%) vs Boom

The Stats

Here are the stats for each team as a whole from their recent games are compared to the averages. I made a slight chance in how I calculate the averages, instead of doing just the teams on the slate, the averages are now based on the SEA region as a whole, at least the teams I’ve pulled data for (which is all of the teams that have been on these 2 slates plus T1). That should help better normalize the stats.

Team Averages TNC vs Avg SMG vs Avg Boom vs Avg Lilgun vs Avg Fnatic vs Avg Omega vs Avg Galaxy Racer vs Avg OB Neon vs Avg
KPW 33.0 0.92 1.09 1.00 1.08 0.80 1.17 1.03 1.00
DPW 19.1 1.00 0.89 1.07 1.01 0.79 1.19 0.88 0.78
KPL 19.2 0.92 1.05 1.11 1.11 0.97 1.01 1.21 1.05
DPL 33.6 0.95 1.06 0.97 1.05 0.81 1.00 1.13 1.13
Avg Length Win 38.1 0.99 0.84 0.98 0.91 0.94 1.10 0.91 0.78
Avg Length Loss 38.1 1.05 0.89 1.15 0.93 1.07 0.97 1.12 1.01

Fnatic and TNC are really the only “bad” matchups here, and I guess Boom technically. Everyone else is above average both in Deaths per Loss and at or above average in kills per win. The lower bracket games set up to be fairly high kill affairs. However, on caveat to that is the teams in the lower bracket (SMG, Lilgun, Omega, Galaxy Racer) may play a bit more conservatively than normal because if they lose they are out. The upper bracket teams can play a bit looser given that they have a 2nd chance if they lose. That said I’m not going to build many of my lineups around those narratives, I’m going to trust the stats. Anyways, let’s take a look at each team individually:

SMG

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
SMG Midone 1 71.1 69.8% 31.9 65.3% -39.2 -4.4%
SMG Moon 2 57.3 58.4% 24.1 46.6% -33.2 -11.7%
SMG kpii 3 50.2 58.6% 23.7 62.5% -26.4 3.9%
SMG ah fu 4 48.0 61.3% 23.2 72.1% -24.8 10.8%
SMG Roddgeee 5 44.1 59.9% 20.5 68.1% -23.5 8.2%

Moon is throwing the KP numbers here off by a bit, ignore those. Also, his FP/M are just based on his first series with the team. That said, given how aggressive the team is, I think they just about make sense, and may even go up a little bit as he gets comfortable. Midone is of course the star here though. He massively outscores his teammates, and is definitely the best player on this team. Note that ah fu scores almost as much as kpii, and Roddgeee isn’t bad for a pos 5.

Lilgun

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Lilgun Sanctity- 1 64.6 67.5% 30.6 62.7% -34.0 -4.8%
Lilgun x123 2 60.1 61.6% 32.9 63.5% -27.2 1.9%
Lilgun MaRvel- 3 52.6 62.4% 21.3 50.9% -31.3 -11.5%
Lilgun Hishgee 4 50.3 64.7% 18.4 55.4% -32.0 -9.3%
Lilgun Ace12 5 50.7 65.2% 26.0 70.4% -24.7 5.2%

Lilgun has some high scoring supports, especially considering the cores aren’t putting up insane numbers. Sanctity- and X123 have good numbers, don’t get me wrong, but both supports over 50 FP/M is impressive. This is a great team to 4 stack. A couple of notes though. Liquipedia had Sanctity- listed as Pos 1 and X123 as Pos 2, but they actually seem to play the opposite most of the time. It’s somewhat hero dependent, as they will switch for certain heroes/matchups, but I did want to note that. It doesn’t matter for DFS. What could matter for DFS, is that Lilgun have had a standin playing for Marvel in another tournament over the past 2 days. Now, this could just be that he couldn’t play, and I can’t find anything on social media. Lilgun appear to only have a facebook account, which is fairly active) and an instagram, which has 1 post although it was recent, and neither mention anything about MaRvel- leaving the team. Fortunately, MaRvel- is the worst piece to include in a 4 stack given that he’s taking a core slot and both supports score a ton, so the easy route here is to not play him. Although him missing hurts Lilgun’s chances to win which makes the whole team less appealing to stack.

Omega

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Omega Tino 1 61.5 58.8% 27.2 53.9% -34.3 -4.9%
Omega Mac 2 73.1 73.2% 30.2 64.8% -42.9 -8.4%
Omega Sam_H 3 59.4 64.4% 25.7 65.6% -33.7 1.2%
Omega Shanks 4 55.8 67.5% 24.5 73.6% -31.3 6.2%
Omega cml 5 50.4 62.9% 20.5 71.0% -29.9 8.0%

This team is very much Mac and then everyone else, although everyone else also scores very well. Both supports are again over 50 FP/M and Sam_H scores a ton for an offlaner. All 5 players are definitely playable in stacks.

Galaxy Racer

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Galaxy Racer inYourdreaM 1 63.2 68.4% 41.7 62.9% -21.6 -5.5%
Galaxy Racer AlaCrity 2 63.7 74.3% 42.4 69.5% -21.2 -4.8%
Galaxy Racer Meracle 3 51.4 65.5% 26.9 50.3% -24.5 -15.2%
Galaxy Racer Poloson 4 47.4 69.1% 27.6 65.0% -19.8 -4.1%
Galaxy Racer Jhocam 5 46.1 65.9% 23.1 54.3% -23.0 -11.6%

inYourdreaM and AlaCrity are basically tied for the top spot here, and the rest of the team isn’t quite as high scoring as some others we’ve seen. Both supports are fine but not great, while Meracle is OK in the offlane. I do like the idea of a GR 2 stack quite a bit in this spot.

OB Neon

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
OB Neon Natsumi- 1 63.1 64.7% 36.6 68.4% -26.5 3.7%
OB Neon Yopaj 2 63.0 68.3% 34.6 79.2% -28.5 10.9%
OB Neon Enryu 3 54.7 65.7% 28.7 74.7% -26.0 9.1%
OB Neon skem 4 54.6 66.9% 19.5 60.8% -35.1 -6.1%
OB Neon Jaunuel 5 46.7 60.4% 20.6 69.3% -26.1 8.8%

Skem scores a crazy amount of points for a support (his stats now only include his pos 4 games, he did play pos 3 for a while). He’s a great piece if you stack OB Neon, although the matchup with Fnatic is pretty terrible. Natsumi- and Yopaj again score basically the same and are very solid. Although he barely outscores skem, Enryu isn’t a bad option at Pos 3 either.

Fnatic

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Fnatic Raven 1 57.4 82.1% 32.5 50.8% -24.9 -31.3%
Fnatic ChYuan 2 54.2 86.3% 59.4 110.9% 5.2 24.6%
Fnatic Deth 3 45.1 86.3% 60.1 119.8% 15.0 33.4%
Fnatic Jabz 4 37.0 77.0% 25.7 59.3% -11.4 -17.7%
Fnatic DJ 5 42.4 79.6% 19.9 49.6% -22.4 -30.0%

ChYuan and Deth have been updated to include just their games for Fnatic at their current position, which is obviously a tiny sample size. You can essentially ignore their FP/M in losses and KP, however I do think the FP/M in wins gives a decent idea of where they may end up. Raven is still the best player here, but ChYuan isn’t too far behind, that seems about right to me. Their supports score really poorly overall, and as I mentioned yesterday, “Pos 5” DJ outscores “Pos 4” Jabz. I put their positions in quotes because DJ was a Pos 4 for most of his career and often still plays like one.

TNC

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
TNC Gabbi 1 61.3 72.1% 30.4 65.6% -30.9 -6.5%
TNC Armel 2 61.5 74.9% 26.9 60.4% -34.5 -14.5%
TNC Bok 3 45.8 64.8% 21.6 61.8% -24.2 -2.9%
TNC Tims 4 42.7 64.6% 19.1 63.9% -23.6 -0.7%
TNC Boomy 5 38.2 61.4% 16.9 61.0% -21.3 -0.4%

TNC is a 2 man team for fantasy. Gabbi and Armel score very well, everyone else scores pretty poorly. Much like Wednesday, I like them for 2 stacks much better than 4 stacks.

Boom

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Boom Dreamocel 1 57.1 60.3% 33.4 52.6% -23.7 -7.7%
Boom Mikoto 2 63.1 72.2% 37.3 63.7% -25.7 -8.5%
Boom Fbz 3 55.9 70.1% 33.1 66.1% -22.8 -4.1%
Boom Hyde 4 41.4 63.7% 21.9 65.5% -19.5 1.8%
Boom Khezcute 5 38.6 57.7% 17.3 53.2% -21.3 -4.4%

Our final team of the slate is fairly straightforward. Mikoto scores the best out of mid, and Dreamocel scores similarly to Fbz. Neither support scores very well, but Hyde does outscore Khezcute. I again prefer 2 stacks here, and if you run multiple of them, make sure you run some with Fbz over Dreamocel.

Slate Analysis

The 4 lower bracket teams rate as my best 4-man stacks on the slate. With Lilgun as massive underdogs I’ll likely have minimal exposure to them, but I’ll have a lot of the other 3 teams. Omega rates as my overall best stack on the slate, and it’s not particularly close. They have a good matchup in Galaxy Racer and are favorites. They’ll definitely be my top used stack.

I plan on mostly fading the TNC/Boom game. They’re my 6th and 7th rated stacks on the slate, and both teams play a bit more controlled than some of the worse teams down in the lower bracket. Fnatic vs OB Neon also rates poorly, however, I may take a couple of shots here. I mentioned yesterday that Fnatic may have adapted their style during the month+ they had off before these qualifiers and they definitely scored a lot on Wednesday. I do think that Games 2 and 3 were so bloody because Omega got ahead early in both and were able to dictate the pace of the game. Fnatic simply has better players so they were able to claw back a ton of kills in Game 2 before losing and win Game 3, but I think the increased kill counts were more Omega’s doing than Fnatics. Just in case I’m wrong, I’ll have a couple of stacks from both teams in this game.

Good luck on Wednesday night/Thursday morning!

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