Thursday marks the 2nd Draftkings DFS slate. Wednesday didn’t even really come that close to filling, let’s try to get those tournaments full on Thursday! It’s another 3 game slate of Bo2’s. I’m again going to give per map probability followed by the chances of each outcome based on that per map probability. Lock is at 7:00 am EST again, and the games are:

Vici Gaming (78% implied win probability per map) vs Gambit (22% per map)

VG 2-0: 61% probability, 1-1 tie: 34% probability, Gambit 2-0: 5% probability

Nigma (74% per map) vs Execration (26% per map)

Nigma 2-0: 55% probability, 1-1 tie: 38% probability, Execration 2-0: 7% probability

Secret (58% per map) vs IG (42% per map)

Secret 2-0: 33% probability, 1-1 tie:49% probability, IG 2-0: 18% probability

Rosters are of course the same as Wednesday, Gambit still have 2 standins and IG still have their coach playing.

Before I jump into the stats I did want to mention here that I think IG should be favored over Secret. They just beat Nigma 2-0, and Secret really looked shaky on Wednesday. Even with their coach, I think IG are a better team right now.

Also, I think myself and much of the field fell into the trap of seeing “big” odds and discounting the underdogs. For example, Execration had a 22% chance to tie and 2% chance to win 2-0. That means that basically 1/4 times they’re going to take a game in that series. Of course, they still have to score well in the game(s) they win, and ideally also score decently if they lose, but I think both Gambit and Execration came in underowned on Wednesday. Given that everyone is hand building, expect to see a bit of an overcorrection on Thursday as recency bias will play a much larger role in determining ownership than it does in sports with lineup optimizers readily available.

 

The Teams

In the interest of time, both mine writing and yours reading, I’m going to present the stats without comment today. Here are the raw stats for the teams as a whole:

Team Nigma Secret VG IG Execration Gambit Averages
KPW 33.8 32.1 30.2 35.3 34.5 28.9 32.6
DPW 19.6 13.7 16.0 19.4 21.7 18.6 18.3
KPL 25.4 16.4 20.5 16.5 16.7 13.9 17.9
DPL 38.4 29.7 37.8 26.7 31.8 28.3 31.7
Avg Length Win 36.8 38.4 37.7 36.5 38.0 37.3 37.5
Avg Length Loss 44.8 37.7 42.0 32.6 36.0 35.8 37.9

 

And normalized to the average:

Team Averages Nigma Vs Avg Secret vs Avg VG vs Avg IG vs Avg Exec vs Avg Gambit vs Avg
KPW 32.6 1.04 0.99 0.93 1.08 1.06 0.89
DPW 18.3 1.07 0.75 0.87 1.06 1.19 1.02
KPL 17.9 1.42 0.92 1.15 0.93 0.94 0.78
DPL 31.7 1.21 0.94 1.19 0.84 1.00 0.89
Avg Length Win 37.5 0.98 1.02 1.01 0.97 1.01 0.99
Avg Length Loss 37.9 1.18 0.99 1.11 0.86 0.95 0.94

Now for the team by team breakdown:

Vici Gaming

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
VG Poyoyo 1 57.4 67.7% 35.4 63.7% -22.0 -3.9%
VG Ori 2 60.5 74.1% 36.6 74.3% -23.9 0.2%
VG Old Eleven 3 50.1 65.9% 27.1 63.7% -22.9 -2.2%
VG Pyw 4 43.8 68.2% 25.5 69.5% -18.4 1.3%
VG DY 5 36.3 60.7% 20.5 64.2% -15.8 3.5%

 

Gambit

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Gambit Dream 1 57.1 73.7% 24.8 58.4% -32.3 -15.3%
Gambit Lorenof 2 45.5 67.4% 30.3 67.2% -15.1 -0.3%
Gambit Afterlife 3 44.7 71.9% 18.3 57.9% -26.4 -14.0%
Gambit Immersion 4 42.3 73.7% 17.4 66.7% -24.9 -7.0%
Gambit 633 5 22.9 55.8% 13.9 56.3% -9.1 0.4%

 

Nigma

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Nigma iLTW 1 56.9 61.4% 41.9 63.6% -14.9 2.2%
Nigma Miracle- 2 68.1 75.4% 39.4 62.8% -28.7 -12.5%
Nigma MinD_Control 3 56.4 70.4% 36.2 66.4% -20.2 -4.0%
Nigma GH 4 48.7 68.7% 32.5 71.9% -16.2 3.3%
Nigma Kuroky 5 46.2 64.7% 24.1 58.1% -22.1 -6.6%

 

Execration

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Execration Palos 1 58.2 65.3% 23.8 52.5% -34.4 -12.8%
Execration Yowe 2 56.8 67.1% 26.0 69.9% -30.8 2.8%
Execration Nikko 3 53.2 70.8% 21.5 65.6% -31.7 -5.3%
Execration BDz 4 48.1 67.4% 20.3 65.6% -27.8 -1.8%
Execration RR 5 38.9 62.7% 18.2 64.5% -20.7 1.7%

 

Secret

 

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Secret Matumbaman 1 55.1 60.8% 30.9 67.9% -24.2 7.1%
Secret Nisha 2 64.6 72.3% 31.7 74.6% -32.8 2.3%
Secret Zai 3 45.2 60.8% 22.3 66.5% -22.9 5.7%
Secret Yapzor 4 38.6 56.9% 21.9 71.3% -16.7 14.4%
Secret Puppey 5 40.1 55.6% 22.8 69.9% -17.3 14.2%

 

IG

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
IG FlyFly 1 63.8 67.4% 24.9 57.6% -38.9 -9.8%
IG Emo 2 72.2 74.4% 29.9 67.9% -42.3 -6.5%
IG JT 3 63.0 69.3% 25.6 66.8% -37.5 -2.5%
IG Kaka 4 47.2 63.8% 17.4 65.2% -29.9 1.4%
IG Super 5 52.9 74.2% 18.2 77.7% -34.7 3.5%

Pay close attention to the breakdown within teams. A couple teams have Position 3’s who outscore the Position 1 and a few have Position 3’s that aren’t even close to Pos 1. Similarly, some teams have a pretty large gap in support scoring, some the gap is virtually non-existent.

 

Top Stacks

There’s only 6 teams on the slate, so in MME I’ll have some exposure to each. The order I like the stacks in is:

Nigma

IG

VG

Execration

Secret

Gambit

If there’s one thing we learned from Day 1, it’s that any of these 6 teams can beat any of the other 6 teams. I definitely tried to get too cute with one-off builds to jam favorites, meanwhile a 2/4 with Execration ended up taking down the big tournament. Per the Vegas odds there’s only an 11% chance that all 3 favorites win 2-0, so at least one underdog is likely to be viable.

 

Captain Strategy

My captain strategy hasn’t changed since Wednesday, I still think you want a core if at all possible. I’ll have a few lineups with support captains, but I’m planning on playing lots of underdogs, which should give me the space to fit a core at captain.

That’s it for me, good luck on Thursday!

 

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