Welcome! SEA qualifiers for TI start on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning here in the US, and we have a nice 4 game slate. DK actually cut off a couple games, but I for one am happy about that as the games they cut off featured some pretty bad and unpredictable teams. We’re left with a 4 game slate of all the best (non-T1) teams in the region. Lock is at 11 pm EDT and the games are:

TNC (80% implied win probability) vs SMG

Boom (51%) vs Execration

Fnatic (77%) vs Omega

Motivate Trust Gaming (55%) vs OB Neon

The Stats

Here are the stats for each team as a whole from their recent games are compared to the averages (the averages are only from the teams on the slate):

Team Averages TNC vs Avg SMG vs Avg Boom vs Avg Execration vs Avg Fnatic vs Avg Omega vs Avg MTG vs Avg OB Neon vs Avg
KPW 33.8 0.90 1.09 0.98 1.02 0.78 1.16 1.05 1.02
DPW 19.2 1.02 0.88 1.07 1.09 0.75 1.12 1.23 0.83
KPL 19.2 0.92 1.13 1.16 0.77 0.89 1.03 1.07 1.05
DPL 33.5 0.95 1.09 1.00 0.96 0.80 1.05 1.03 1.13
Avg Length Win 36.1 1.05 0.90 1.01 1.05 0.99 1.10 1.08 0.82
Avg Length Loss 37.6 1.08 0.88 1.15 0.90 1.02 0.98 0.96 1.02

Fnatic really drive down what are some otherwise high averages. SEA is known for being a particularly bloody region, and many of the teams here live up to that hype. Omega in particular are super bloody in their wins, pushing their advantages and racking up kills in the process. Meanwhile, SMG and OB Neon die a ton when they lose games. MTG is the only “favorite” that averages above average kills in wins, although Execration and even OB Neon are just below coinflips. It’s also worth noting that TNC and Execration both played at the major, and many of their stats come from those games, where teams in general weren’t quite as bloody as the SEA region. They may see a bit of a boost now that they’re back home. Anyways, let’s take a look at the individual teams:

TNC

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
TNC Gabbi 1 61.2 72.1% 30.5 65.2% -30.7 -6.8%
TNC Armel 2 61.7 75.0% 27.0 61.0% -34.7 -14.0%
TNC Bok 3 45.5 64.4% 21.5 61.9% -23.9 -2.5%
TNC Tims 4 43.0 64.8% 18.9 63.1% -24.1 -1.7%
TNC Boomy 5 37.9 61.3% 16.6 60.1% -21.3 -1.2%

Gabbi and Armel are the stars here. The supports don’t score all that great but are still my preferred 3rd and 4th stacking partner over Bok, who scores pretty poorly from the offlane.

SMG

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
SMG Midone 1 73.7 74.5% 33.1 59.7% -40.6 -14.8%
SMG Neah666 2 65.6 72.4% 40.5 77.0% -25.1 4.5%
SMG kpii 3 50.6 60.9% 26.1 58.1% -24.5 -2.8%
SMG ah fu 4 48.8 63.6% 24.7 65.4% -24.0 1.7%
SMG Roddgeee 5 45.7 63.6% 21.4 60.9% -24.3 -2.7%
Fnatic Moon 2 48.8 76.8% 27.3 62.9% -21.5 -13.9%

I left the numbers for SMG’s old mid to give an idea of how he fit into the team, while also showing Moon’s stats from FNC. Moon should be an upgrade over Neah666, so expect at least around the same FP/M in wins. Fnatic were by far the least bloody team on this slate, so Moon’s numbers were low. Midone is still the star here. He’s the best player in this series. A staple on tier 1 EU teams before the pandemic, he’s returned home to be closer to family since the pandemic started. ah fu and Roddgeee also score decently in wins.

Boom

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Boom Dreamocel 1 57.0 60.4% 34.4 52.6% -22.6 -7.8%
Boom Mikoto 2 63.1 72.1% 37.5 62.2% -25.6 -9.9%
Boom Fbz 3 56.6 71.0% 32.8 64.7% -23.8 -6.3%
Boom Hyde 4 39.7 61.9% 23.0 65.4% -16.7 3.5%
Boom Khezcute 5 37.5 56.5% 18.6 53.8% -18.8 -2.6%

Mikoto is the star here, and Fbz scores almost as much as Dreamocel from the offlane. Both supports score very poorly, I like Boom for 2 stacks (or 3 if you want to run a 3 core stack) more than 4 stacks.

Execration

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Execration Palos 1 57.7 64.4% 21.0 55.1% -36.7 -9.2%
Execration Yowe 2 55.9 66.3% 23.2 70.7% -32.7 4.4%
Execration Nikko 3 53.7 71.5% 17.7 64.9% -36.0 -6.6%
Execration BDz 4 47.8 66.7% 16.6 65.4% -31.2 -1.4%
Execration RR 5 38.5 62.2% 15.5 65.4% -23.0 3.2%

Palos, Yowe, and Nikko all score very similarly, any of them could be top for the slate. BDz has a big gap between him and RR, making the 4 stack you want here pretty clear.

Fnatic

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Fnatic Raven 1 55.3 74.7% 28.4 58.2% -26.9 -16.4%
Fnatic Moon 2 48.8 76.8% 27.3 62.9% -21.5 -13.9%
Fnatic ChYuan 3 47.8 77.2% 24.0 67.1% -23.8 -10.2%
Fnatic Jabz 4 36.6 71.3% 23.4 71.8% -13.3 0.5%
Fnatic DJ 5 43.7 77.6% 16.5 57.1% -27.2 -20.6%
D Deth 3 55.3 18.6 -36.8

Again, to be clear Moon is playing for SMG now, but I kept his stats here for context. I also included Deth’s stats from his old team. I’d expect Deth’s numbers to come down a bit here. Also, all we have for ChYuan are Pos 3 numbers. As he moves to Pos 2 I’d expect at least a 5-10 point jump in his FP/M in wins. Also note that DJ outscores Jabz from the 5 position. DJ was a Pos 4 for much of his career, and often times gets farm priority depending on the heroes.

Omega

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Omega Tino 1 61.3 57.6% 26.3 52.1% -35.0 -5.5%
Omega Mac 2 74.2 72.7% 32.6 71.8% -41.6 -0.9%
Omega Sam_H 3 58.9 63.0% 28.8 71.9% -30.1 8.9%
Omega Shanks 4 55.4 66.5% 23.5 72.6% -31.9 6.1%
Omega cml 5 51.7 62.5% 20.6 71.2% -31.1 8.7%

Mac isĀ  certainly the fantasy superstar here. He well outpaces Tino and Sam_H in wins. Shanks and cml both also score a lot for supports, it’s a shame Omega are matched up with the slowest team on the slate.

MTG

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
MTG Jackky 1 64.2 65.8% 29.0 55.5% -35.2 -10.3%
MTG Fearless 2 64.9 72.8% 33.0 67.1% -31.9 -5.8%
MTG Masaros 3 57.5 69.7% 21.0 54.9% -36.4 -14.8%
MTG Q 4 53.6 70.7% 25.6 70.1% -28.0 -0.6%
MTG LionaX 5 48.6 65.8% 26.0 72.0% -22.7 6.2%

Jackky and Fearless score roughly the same here and are clearly the top plays. All 5 players score pretty well. Fire them up as either a 2, 3, or 4 stack.

OB Neon

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
OB Neon Natsumi- 1 64.6 64.4% 36.6 65.2% -28.0 0.7%
OB Neon Yopaj 2 65.8 67.9% 34.6 75.4% -31.2 7.5%
OB Neon Enryu 3 56.5 68.3% 28.7 71.2% -27.8 2.9%
OB Neon skem 4 57.9 69.2% 24.5 60.7% -33.4 -8.5%
OB Neon Jaunuel 5 48.1 60.0% 20.6 66.0% -27.5 6.0%

I do want to point out that skem has played some core for OB Neon (he was Pos 3 for a bit in a previous roster iteration) so his numbers are bit inflated. He’s still a strong play but not quite as strong as his numbers show. Yopaj and Natsumi- are the fantasy studs here, as they both score pretty close to one another. Juanuel also scores well for a Pos 5.

Slate Analysis

I have MTG rated as the best 4 stack and OB Neon rated as number 2, so needless to say I’ll have heavy exposure to that game. TNC rate as my number 3 stack, and while I’ll definitely have some, I’m not so sure about the Vegas line there. Just looking at the players on each team, SMG are arguably better, especially with the addition of Moon. I think this game should be closer to 60/40 than 80/20 and will definitely have some SMG exposure.

I’ll also play a bit of Fnatic in the hopes that in their time off (they haven’t played for over a month) they’ve adopted some more aggressive strategies. If that is the case, Omega are a good matchup and Fnatic could put up huge scores.

That’s it for me, good luck on Tuesday/Wednesday!

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