Welcome! We’re down to a 3 game slate on Friday as the qualifier approaches it’s close. Lock is still at 4am EDT are the games are:

Navi (77% implied win probability) vs Empire

Puckchamp (63%) vs Nemiga

Spirit (75%) vs Hellraisers

 

The Stats

Here are the stats for each team as a whole from their recent games are compared to the averages (the averages are only from the teams on the slate):

Team Averages Navi vs Avg Spirit vs Avg Hellraisers vs Avg Empire vs Avg Puckchamp vs Avg Nemiga vs Avg
KPW 30.6 0.92 0.98 0.97 1.04 1.13 0.95
DPW 14.7 0.99 0.90 1.07 0.89 1.02 1.13
KPL 14.5 0.74 1.11 1.04 1.01 1.02 1.07
DPL 30.1 0.97 1.04 1.05 0.89 0.97 1.08
Avg Length Win 36.3 1.03 1.05 0.95 0.98 0.98 1.02
Avg Length Loss 38.2 0.96 1.05 0.95 1.13 0.96 0.96

As the teams remaining shrink, we still don’t really have any crazy standouts in terms of kills. The best matchup on paper is Puckchamp’s against Nemiga. Puckchamp average the most kills per win on the slate while Nemiga average the most deaths per loss. Hellraisers and Spirit are also both above average in deaths per loss, so whoever wins that series could see a slight bump in kills. Anyway, let’s look at the individual teams.

Navi

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Navi V-Tune 1 53.7 70.4% 19.8 32.0% -33.9 -38.4%
Navi No One 2 61.7 83.2% 33.3 85.5% -28.4 2.3%
Navi Ramzes 3 49.7 69.4% 12.9 37.5% -36.8 -31.9%
Navi Rodjer 4 37.3 61.8% 9.8 35.3% -27.5 -26.5%
Navi Sonnieko 5 52.0 80.8% 24.6 74.5% -27.4 -6.3%

KP% is still a little screwed up, No One and Sonnieko are slightly too high in wins (way too high in losses) and the rest of the team are slightly too low in wins and way too low in losses. The FP/M in wins numbers should be getting better in terms of accuracy though, No One should be the highest scoring core for this team and Sonnieko the higher scoring support of the pair.

Empire

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Empire Smiling Knight 1 55.0 62.1% 30.8 69.9% -24.2 7.8%
Empire Depressed Kid 2 60.0 72.4% 28.8 75.7% -31.2 3.4%
Empire Petushara 3 53.6 69.4% 20.6 63.1% -33.0 -6.3%
Empire Sayuw 4 46.1 65.9% 15.8 59.2% -30.3 -6.7%
Empire Vanskor 5 44.8 67.8% 14.4 66.0% -30.4 -1.8%

Empire are a fairly straightforward team. Depressed Kid is definitely their best player, and it shows in the FP/M. All 5 players score decently for their position, and are all viable in stacks if you decide to stack Empire.

Puckchamp

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Puckchamp krylat 1 56.8 58.5% 28.6 67.2% -28.2 8.6%
Puckchamp desperate 2 66.4 70.3% 27.5 79.1% -38.9 8.8%
Puckchamp meLes 3 58.8 68.5% 20.3 67.9% -38.6 -0.6%
Puckchamp Astral 4 42.1 57.7% 14.9 60.4% -27.1 2.7%
Puckchamp Dukalis 5 41.9 59.8% 14.2 64.2% -27.7 4.3%

Note that meLes outscores krylat from the offlane here. Otherwise, pretty straightforward. Desperate carries from mid and while the gap between cores and supports is pretty large, the supports score OK.

Nemiga

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Nemiga Kiritych 1 57.5 69.1% 22.1 51.1% -35.4 -18.0%
Nemiga Ainkrad 2 52.5 73.1% 25.9 70.3% -26.7 -2.8%
Nemiga TheChosenOne 3 46.0 66.4% 18.7 63.5% -27.3 -2.9%
Nemiga Heaven 4 35.2 58.8% 21.5 73.5% -13.7 14.8%
Nemiga Lodine 5 34.9 60.7% 17.9 74.0% -17.0 13.2%

Nemiga are one of the only teams in this tournament where the Pos 1 scores the most FP/M in wins. Keep that in mind when you stack Nemiga. Both supports score pretty poorly, making Nemiga not the most ideal team to 4 stack.

Spirit

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Spirit Yatoro 1 56.2 65.0% 25.6 56.9% -30.6 -8.1%
Spirit TorontoTokyo 2 52.9 67.1% 25.3 62.2% -27.6 -4.9%
Spirit Collapse 3 48.3 66.7% 21.6 62.8% -26.7 -3.9%
Spirit Miroslaw 4 44.3 68.6% 18.4 71.5% -26.0 3.0%
Spirit Miposhka 5 41.0 65.8% 19.9 74.3% -21.0 8.5%

Spirit are the other remaining team where the Pos 1 outscores the Pos 2. Again, something to keep in mind while building. Outside of Empire and Sonnieko, the Spirit supports score the best relative to their cores. Miro is only 4 FP/M behind Collapse in wins. This makes them an attractive team to 4 stack.

Slate Analysis

As I eluded to above, Puckchamp are my highest rated stack, I’ll have them in most of my lineups. Given that they are the smallest of the favorites, I don’t expect their ownership to be too crazy.  Spirit are also priced down, and I’d expect them to be the mega chalk. Spirit are my 2nd highest rated stack on the slate, and I may run some weird 3/3’s (plus team slot) on this slate. I like Spirit’s supports better than their cores, but obviously you can’t play a 4 stack of just cores from one team, so if I want to play both Spirit supports I either need to play a Spirit core or a one off core (I will not be going the one off route).

I expect Nemiga to be the most popular underdog, but I prefer Hellraisers. They showed they can compete with the big boys by knocking off Navi on Thursday, and I think they have a much better shot to beat Spirit than Empire do Navi, despite similar odds.

Good luck on Friday!

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