Welcome! We have another big 6 game slate for the EUE (CIS) TI Qualifier. The slate locks at 4:00 am EDT and the games are:

Winstrike (72% implied win probability) vs Empire

Unique (68%) vs B8

Extremum (55%) vs Nemiga

Gambit (87%) vs Fantastic Five

Navi (67%) vs Hellraisers

Spirit (85%) vs Puckchamp

 

The Stats

Here are the stats for each team as a whole from their recent games are compared to the averages (the averages are only from the teams on the slate):

Team Averages Navi vs Avg Gambit vs Avg Spirit vs Avg Extremum vs Avg Winstrike vs Avg Hellraisers vs Avg Empire vs Avg Fantastic 5 vs Avg B8 vs Avg Unique vs Avg Puckchamp vs Avg Nemiga vs Avg
KPW 30.8 0.91 0.92 0.99 1.06 1.02 0.92 1.09 1.13 0.90 0.96 1.12 0.99
DPW 15.8 0.95 1.13 0.86 1.19 0.99 0.95 0.85 1.08 0.95 1.11 0.95 1.01
KPL 14.4 0.59 0.82 1.12 0.99 1.08 1.08 1.10 0.89 1.03 1.06 1.16 1.08
DPL 29.3 0.92 0.89 1.07 1.11 0.98 1.08 0.91 0.99 1.00 0.90 1.04 1.12
Avg Length Win 36.8 1.02 1.01 1.04 1.04 1.04 0.89 0.96 0.96 1.02 1.07 0.96 1.00
Avg Length Loss 37.2 0.93 0.92 1.07 0.94 1.00 0.97 1.18 0.97 1.03 1.02 1.00 0.96

These are mostly the same teams as yesterday, with Empire and Fantastic 5 replacing NoTechies and Trident. Just looking at the DPL (death per loss) numbers, the Extremum vs Nemiga game really stands out, as they are the top 2 teams in terms of dying the most when the lose. Meanwhile, while B8 had a great matchup (and scored well) on Wednesday, even if they beat Unique they’re unlikely to score nearly as well as Unique is near the lowest DPL on the slate. Of course, actually the lowest DPL is Gambit, who had losses on Wednesday with 10 and then 18 deaths. Those are LoL type numbers. Anyways, let’s take a look at the teams. Not a ton will have changed since Wednesday’s article, but Wednesday’s games are added and the new teams are accounted for.

Winstrike

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Winstrike dyrachyo 1 50.5 57.8% 24.9 58.3% -25.6 0.5%
Winstrike re1bl 2 66.3 71.7% 28.0 71.7% -38.2 0.0%
Winstrike chshrct 3 53.6 67.6% 23.1 71.7% -30.5 4.0%
Winstrike yamich 4 48.5 68.2% 19.5 67.4% -29.1 -0.8%
Winstrike pantomem 5 41.5 62.1% 14.5 62.6% -27.0 0.4%

Since Winstrike got 2-0’d, their FP/M in wins remains exactly the same. Re1bl still hard carries them frequently in wins and their offlaner outscores their position 1. That will be important to remember on this slate, as they are fairly reasonably priced favorites.

 

Empire

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Empire Smiling Knight 1 58.3 63.3% 34.2 72.6% -24.1 9.3%
Empire Depressed Kid 2 63.5 72.7% 31.2 75.8% -32.3 3.1%
Empire Petushara 3 55.8 68.4% 23.1 64.2% -32.8 -4.2%
Empire Sayuw 4 49.7 67.4% 15.2 55.8% -34.5 -11.6%
Empire Vanskor 5 48.2 68.9% 16.7 67.4% -31.5 -1.5%

Empire are a fairly straightforward team. Depressed Kid is definitely their best player, and it shows in the FP/M. They do score pretty well as a whole though, and both supports are high scoring, both in general and relative to the pos 3. It is worth noting that they actually kicked Petushara in favor of Shachlo, but then Shachlo has health issues (an arm issue) so they’ve brought Petushara back. Possibly chemistry issues?

 

Unique

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Unique Palantimos 1 55.0 71.3% 23.4 57.3% -31.6 -14.0%
Unique fn 2 54.6 70.2% 30.2 73.4% -24.4 3.1%
Unique Ghostik 3 49.9 70.2% 19.0 59.5% -30.8 -10.7%
Unique Bignum 4 39.1 67.4% 17.8 66.8% -21.3 -0.6%
Unique Cematheslayer 5 44.8 72.5% 18.3 69.7% -26.6 -2.8%

Palantimos and fn score nearly identically at the top for Unique. Slayer also outscores Bignum, worth noting since most teams the Pos 4 scores more. Unique are a fairly low scoring team as a whole, and while I admittedly didn’t watch every game, I was very unimpressed with them as a team. They failed to capitalize on what should have been a pretty big early advantage in both games, and really don’t seem to play the map well at all.

 

B8

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
B8 watson 1 58.5 72.7% 29.8 69.1% -28.7 -3.6%
B8 dendi 2 55.3 73.5% 25.4 64.4% -29.9 -9.1%
B8 limitless 3 44.9 68.7% 19.1 65.1% -25.8 -3.6%
B8 TSA 4 35.2 61.4% 16.5 68.5% -18.7 7.0%
B8 NoFear 5 39.2 68.7% 12.3 61.1% -26.9 -7.6%

Watson went huge on Wednesday, moving himself up to the top spot on the team in FP/M in wins. I think at this point in Dendi’s career, Watson is definitely a better player than him, and it’s honestly a bit concerning that he’s so far above 3rd place. This is a tough team to 4 stack as even in wins the supports tend to score poorly. The 2 stack is worth a look though.

 

Extremum

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Extremum nefrit 1 57.5 64.2% 20.9 61.7% -36.6 -2.6%
Extremum mellojul 2 64.4 79.7% 22.9 75.1% -41.5 -4.7%
Extremum blizzy 3 52.6 65.4% 13.7 60.5% -38.9 -4.9%
Extremum chu 4 47.6 71.1% 13.3 70.4% -34.2 -0.7%
Extremum G 5 50.4 75.6% 13.9 65.2% -36.5 -10.5%

While we could kind of ignore Extremum on Wednesday as they had a tough matchup, they come into Thursday as favorites. The score well and Nemiga dies a lot. All 5 positions score decently, and G especially scores a LOT for a Pos 5. I’m interested in all 5 players (mellojul or nefrit in my captain spot) on Thursday.

 

Nemiga

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Nemiga Kiritych 1 60.1 73.7% 20.6 48.8% -39.5 -25.0%
Nemiga Ainkrad 2 54.1 74.4% 25.5 69.6% -28.6 -4.8%
Nemiga TheChosenOne 3 44.8 65.7% 19.5 64.8% -25.4 -0.9%
Nemiga Hellscream 4 33.6 55.4% 17.6 68.6% -16.0 13.2%
Nemiga Lodine 5 38.8 65.7% 18.6 76.1% -20.2 10.3%

Kiritych had a huge performance on Wednesday, going 21-0-11 in game 2 on Ursa. I do think it’s a bit closer between him and Ainkrad than the numbers now indicate. I still have Hellscream’s numbers showing here, as Heaven has only played 2 career games that I can find, but at first glance is appears he should score much better than Hellscream did in wins. He kept his deaths to a minimum and scored very well on Thursday. I’d say Heaven is definitely viable in Nemiga stacks.

 

Gambit

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Gambit Dream 1 54.2 65.5% 19.8 42.5% -34.3 -23.1%
Gambit Lorenof 2 56.0 65.5% 22.6 44.9% -33.4 -20.6%
Gambit Afterlife 3 42.6 64.7% 16.6 48.6% -26.0 -16.1%
Gambit Immersion 4 42.1 68.9% 13.9 54.2% -28.3 -14.7%
Gambit Eine 5 27.9 51.5% 1.6 23.6% -26.3 -28.0%

Eine has really struggled since he started playing with Gambit. His KP numbers are slightly off (they based on Gambit’s kills per win and loss for the team as a whole not just the games he has played) but they are still really low. Lorenof is honestly this team’s best player right now, Dream hasn’t looked great either. This is by far the easiest matchup Gambit has had on a slate yet though, so we could see a turnaround. I still an hesitant to use Eine, and will probably stick to mostly 2 stacks of Gambit, maybe 3 stacks with some Immersion mixed in.

 

Fantastic Five

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Fantastic 5 Rari 1 62.0 64.7% 13.0 32.1% -48.9 -32.6%
Fantastic 5 Askold 2 60.6 67.6% 28.9 78.2% -31.6 10.6%
Fantastic 5 Supernova 3 54.5 68.0% 14.2 70.2% -40.4 2.2%
Fantastic 5 Le don 4 49.4 66.3% 7.0 44.1% -42.4 -22.1%
Fantastic 5 633 5 52.5 71.0% 17.5 99.7% -34.9 28.7%

Fantastic 5 score pretty well as a team in wins (note that 633 does have a couple games of stats while he was standing in for Gambit, throwing his KP numbers off a bit, they should be a bit lower, particularly in losses). All 5 members are playable if you think they can beat Gambit. Again though, I do want to reiterate that while Gambit have looked bad so far, we’ve only seen them play much better teams than F5 on our slates, so our opinion might be a bit clouded by the competition level.

 

Navi

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Navi V-Tune 1 53.1 74.0% 17.0 57.4% -36.1 -16.7%
Navi No One 2 62.4 84.0% 22.0 56.5% -40.4 -27.4%
Navi Ramzes 3 51.2 74.8% 10.9 66.2% -40.3 -8.6%
Navi Rodjer 4 37.2 64.9% 7.1 57.4% -30.0 -7.5%
Navi Sonnieko 5 50.5 80.2% 12.1 48.5% -38.4 -31.6%

You can mostly ignore the KP numbers here, everything is thrown a bit off by No One and Sonnieko, even the players who have been on the team (I need to fix how I have my sheet programmed to calculate KP at some point but I’m not quite sure how to best do it currently). And No One and Sonnieko have obviously only played a couple games for Navi. That said, I do think it’s right that No One will be the highest scoring core most often and Sonnieko will be the higher scoring support (although maybe not by as big of a gap as the numbers show). It’s also worth noting that in the first match as a team together, V-Tune had really low kill involvement. If that becomes a trend Ramzes could be the better stacking partner for No One.

 

Extremum

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Extremum nefrit 1 57.5 64.2% 22.0 60.5% -35.6 -3.7%
Extremum mellojul 2 64.4 79.7% 23.4 73.6% -41.0 -6.2%
Extremum blizzy 3 52.6 65.4% 16.0 68.8% -36.6 3.4%
Extremum chu 4 47.6 71.1% 14.4 71.0% -33.2 -0.1%
Extremum G 5 50.4 75.6% 13.6 61.8% -36.8 -13.8%

While they likely don’t stand much of a chance against Navi, if Extremum do pull off the upset it will likely be on mellojul’s back. G also averages a ton of points for a support, particularly relative to his pos 1 and 3 teammates, but again I don’t really think that’s actionable on this slate.

 

Spirit

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Spirit Yatoro 1 56.6 64.9% 25.6 56.9% -31.0 -7.9%
Spirit TorontoTokyo 2 53.0 66.6% 25.3 62.2% -27.7 -4.4%
Spirit Collapse 3 48.8 66.8% 21.6 62.8% -27.2 -3.9%
Spirit Miroslaw 4 45.0 68.6% 18.4 71.5% -26.6 2.9%
Spirit Miposhka 5 41.5 66.0% 19.9 74.3% -21.6 8.3%

Spirit are still led by Yatoro and TorontoTokyo. They don’t score particularly well in wins, but they are the most recognizable (been on the most slates) team for most of the people playing Dota DFS right now. I’m getting a little bit ahead of myself but I’m going to avoid Spirit as long as they are chalk, which seems likely to continue to be the case given their odds.

 

PuckChamp

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Puckchamp krylat 1 56.8 58.5% 31.4 67.5% -25.4 9.0%
Puckchamp Desperate 2 66.4 70.3% 31.6 82.1% -34.8 11.7%
Puckchamp meLes 3 58.8 68.5% 23.6 68.4% -35.2 -0.1%
Puckchamp Astral 4 42.1 57.7% 16.8 60.7% -25.3 2.9%
Puckchamp Dukalis 5 41.9 59.8% 16.6 64.1% -25.3 4.3%

Puckchamp’s cores all score pretty well, meLes scores very well for an offlaner, when they win. It’s unlikely that they pull off an upset here, but I do think the line is a bit too far in Spirit’s favor, and it may be worth putting PuckChamp in a lineup or two if you max the $5.

 

Slate Analysis

With max entries down to 28 in the $5, we can’t cover nearly as many bases with our lineups. I’m going to be playing a narrow core of teams and hoping that it hits right for me.

There are two big favorites, Spirit and Gambit, the only two teams who are really priced up on DK. Looking at the top 4 players for each team (aka the 4 stack from that team), Gambit ranks 10th (and 9th best when looking at the 2 stack) for expected points in a 2-0. I’m going to either full fade them or only play them in a couple lineups.

Spirit are more complicated, I have their 4 and 2 stack both rated 6th, but I’m expecting them to be super chalky given what we saw for ownership on Wednesday. I’ll likely have a few Spirit lineups, but I’ll almost definitely come in under the field.

My favorite stacks on the slate are Extremum and Navi. Extremum rates 1st in both 4 stacks and 2 stacks, while Navi is 3rd and 4th. 2nd place in 4 stacks is Puckchamp, who are obviously massive underdogs. Both teams are moderately priced so I’m going to have a lot of exposure to each. On the other side of the Extremum game, Nemiga also rates really well. I’ll likely have one side or the other of this game in the vast majority of my lineups, as it rates out to be pretty clearly the top scoring game of the day.

I also think Empire stacks are worth playing in a lineup or two, as they rate out as 4th best 4 man stack. While I thought Winstrike were a bit underrated by Vegas on Wednesday, I think they’re a bit overrated on Thursday, I think this game should be more like 65/35 or even 60/40.

Lastly, while B8 (Watson and Dendi) scored really well on Wednesday, even if they upset Unique I have them rated as the very worst 4 stack and 2nd to last 2 stack. They were a matchup based play on Wednesday and on Thursday their matchup is terrible, even in a win the likely won’t score a ton. Of course it’s Dota so anything can happen, but people may go to B8 to help fit Spirit. I’ll be staying away. On the Unique side, they’re playable but not super exciting as an option. I’ll likely have a couple lineups with them.

That’s it for me, good luck on Thursday!

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