We’re back! Draftkings is either A) indicating they are going to give Dota support long term or B) testing it one more time before giving up, but either way we’ve got a $5k to 1st $20k prize pool tournament for a $5 entry fee. Max entries is 142. I really appreciate that DK is giving Dota a decent shot here, but if by chance anyone from DK reads this, please, please, please work with lineup builder sites to get them to provide a lineup generator for Dota (and Valorant for that matter). You’re simply not going to get guys who play thousands of dollars of volume per day to spend multiple hours building 142 Dota lineups by hand. It’s just not going to happen. Hell, I love Dota and I’m probably only going to build 50 lineups.

I also wanted to give a big shoutout to Nathan, a regular in the TESD discord. He provided me with a ton of stats that saved me a lot of time in writing this article. Thanks a lot Nathan! You can check him out on Twitter here.

Anyways, the actual slate is opening day of TI Qualifiers for EEU, aka CIS. Lock is at 4:00 am EST, and the games are:

Spirit (80% implied win probability) vs Winstrike

Notechies (50%) vs B8 (50%)

Unique (52%) vs Puckchamp

Nemiga (76%) vs Trident

Navi (80%) vs Extremum

Gambit (61%) vs Hellraisers

There are a lot of recent roster changes and stand-ins, but to DK’s credit the player pool appears correct. Well done on their part.

The Stats

Here are the stats for each team as a whole from their recent games are compared to the averages (the averages are only from the teams on the slate):

Team Averages Navi vs Avg Gambit vs Avg Spirit vs Avg Extremum vs Avg Winstrike vs Avg Hellraisers vs Avg NoTechies vs Avg Trident vs Avg B8 vs Avg Unique vs Avg Puckchamp vs Avg Nemiga vs Avg
KPW 30.9 0.90 0.93 1.00 1.06 1.02 1.01 1.04 1.09 0.85 0.96 1.17 0.98
DPW 16.1 0.99 1.10 0.85 1.16 0.96 1.01 1.21 0.92 0.79 1.08 0.90 1.03
KPL 14.8 0.57 0.82 1.09 1.01 1.11 1.02 1.26 0.92 1.01 1.01 1.13 1.05
DPL 30.4 0.89 0.89 1.03 1.10 0.97 1.08 1.12 1.00 0.97 0.86 1.00 1.08
Avg Length Win 36.7 1.04 1.02 1.05 1.04 1.04 0.94 1.01 0.88 1.00 1.08 0.91 1.00
Avg Length Loss 36.3 0.95 0.97 1.10 0.97 1.03 0.99 0.97 0.92 1.06 1.02 1.03 0.98

We have a couple of teams that stick out as being good to stack against (high deaths per loss, also high deaths per win is a nice bonus but less important). Notechies and Extremum in particular stick out, with Hellraisers and Nemiga right behind them. On the other hand, Unique, Gambit, and Navi tend to have fairly low death losses. You’ll also notice that the best teams, Spirit, Navi, and Gambit, are all average to below average in kills per win. This makes sense as the better teams are also typically better at closing out games, and need less fights to do so. This could make the lesser team vs lesser team matchups more appealing, in the hopes that the team that’s winning can’t close out the game and both teams will pile up the kills. Now let’s look at the breakdown within each team.

Spirit

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Spirit Yatoro 1 57.1 64.1% 25.6 56.9% -31.4 -7.2%
Spirit TorontoTokyo 2 54.3 67.0% 25.3 62.2% -28.9 -4.8%
Spirit Collapse 3 49.8 66.9% 21.6 62.8% -28.2 -4.0%
Spirit Miroslaw 4 44.7 67.8% 18.4 71.5% -26.3 3.7%
Spirit Miposhka 5 41.5 65.2% 19.9 74.3% -21.6 9.1%

Spirit is a team that does not play through there offlane that heavily, as there is a decent gap between pos 1 and 2 and pos 3.

Winstrike

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Winstrike dyrachyo 1 50.5 57.8% 27.0 57.9% -23.5 0.1%
Winstrike re1bl 2 66.3 71.7% 29.7 73.8% -36.6 2.1%
Winstrike chshrct 3 53.6 67.6% 24.4 70.7% -29.2 3.1%
Winstrike yamich 4 48.5 68.2% 18.8 64.6% -29.7 -3.6%
Winstrike pantomem 5 41.5 62.1% 14.7 61.0% -26.8 -1.2%

re1bl hard carries Winstrike as much as I’ve seen anyone carry a team, averaging an absurd 12.7 points more than 2nd most (which is interestingly offlane) in wins. Note that this hasn’t really carried over to losses though, so I’m not interested in a re1bl one-off or anything like that.

NoTechies

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
NoTechies layme 1 55.1 63.8% 22.1 50.0% -33.0 -13.8%
NoTechies dame 2 50.3 61.9% 31.2 71.9% -19.1 10.0%
NoTechies dkfogas 3 45.0 58.1% 29.3 73.6% -15.7 15.4%
NoTechies xsvamp1re 4 46.9 71.3% 21.3 68.2% -25.7 -3.1%
NoTechies solo 5 41.4 66.9% 19.8 64.9% -21.7 -2.0%

It’s the layme, dame, and xsvampire show for NoTechies, as xsvampire actually outscores the offlaner in wins. You can tell by fogas’ low KP that they tend to leave him on an island to push the dead lane (shoutout BSJ, basically the area of the map that isn’t safe) when the game is going well while xsvampire hunts for kills around the map.

B8

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
B8 watson 1 54.3 70.1% 29.8 69.1% -24.5 -1.0%
B8 dendi 2 55.2 76.1% 25.4 64.4% -29.8 -11.7%
B8 limitless 3 44.5 71.2% 19.1 65.1% -25.4 -6.1%
B8 TSA 4 35.7 63.0% 16.5 68.5% -19.2 5.4%
B8 NoFear 5 38.9 70.1% 12.3 61.1% -26.6 -9.0%

Watson and Dendi run the show for B8. Everyone else scores pretty poorly, as B8 actually average the least kills per win on the slate as a team. Naturally this leads to lower scoring. Of course, that’s only a sample of 7 wins, so I’m by no means saying they can’t put up a big score, they definitely can.

Unique

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Unique Palantimos 1 55.0 71.3% 23.4 59.2% -31.6 -12.2%
Unique fn 2 54.6 70.2% 29.7 72.9% -24.9 2.7%
Unique Ghostik 3 49.9 70.2% 18.3 58.8% -31.6 -11.5%
Unique Bignum 4 39.1 67.4% 17.5 67.1% -21.7 -0.3%
Unique Cematheslayer 5 44.8 72.5% 17.9 68.8% -26.9 -3.7%

Palantimos and fn are the cores to target here, and interestingly the pos 5 outscores the pos 4. That’s something to keep in mind when building your stacks.

Puckchamp

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Puckchamp krylat 1 58.1 58.2% 31.4 67.5% -26.7 9.4%
Puckchamp desperate 2 67.7 69.2% 31.6 82.1% -36.1 12.8%
Puckchamp meLes 3 60.7 66.8% 23.6 68.4% -37.1 1.6%
Puckchamp Astral 4 44.8 57.5% 16.8 60.7% -28.0 3.1%
Puckchamp Dukalis 5 43.9 59.7% 16.6 64.1% -27.3 4.4%

Puckchamp score a lot of points, they average the most kills per win on the slate. Interestingly, they have relatively low kill participation scores from 3/5 players, including both supports. It seems to be desperate and meLes roving around the map doing most of the killing whil krylat shows up towards the end with a ton of farm to ice the game away.

Nemiga

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Nemiga Kiritych 1 57.2 71.7% 20.6 48.8% -36.6 -23.0%
Nemiga Ainkrad 2 56.5 77.0% 25.5 69.6% -31.0 -7.3%
Nemiga TheChosenOne 3 43.3 63.9% 19.5 64.8% -23.8 1.0%
Nemiga Hellscream 4 33.6 56.0% 17.6 68.6% -16.0 12.6%
Nemiga Lodine 5 39.2 66.1% 18.6 76.1% -20.7 10.0%

Note that Heaven is taking over for Hellscream, but he’s yet to play for Nemiga and I could find any stats for him at all, so I left Hellscream in to show how the team looked previously. Nemiga seems to very much play through their pos 1 and 2, they are the clear top 2 for the squad. It will be interesting to see if Heaven is an upgrade over Hellscream, and if so if that also helps TheChosenOne. I could see taking a few shots on that idea in the $5 GPP.

Trident

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Trident Munkushi 1 63.5 76.6% 24.9 64.3% -38.6 -12.3%
Trident squad1x 2 59.7 92.2% 28.6 94.4% -31.1 2.2%
Trident Fraser 3 55.2 74.0% 17.4 67.1% -37.8 -6.8%
Trident SoulEater 4 46.9 70.1% 14.8 61.5% -32.1 -8.5%
Trident sQreen 5 64.1 95.5% 16.1 73.4% -48.0 -22.1%

First off, you can ignore the KP numbers on squad1x and sQreen, they’ve each only played a couple matches and the KP numbers are based on all the games of data I have for Trident. I also think sQreen’s FP/M in wins is inflated. It is worth noting that the Pos 2 before squad1x had insane numbers in wins, averaging over 71 points in wins. I bring this up because I don’t think they play through Munkushi quite as much as the numbers indicate. I’d expect him and Squad1x to be closer together over the long terms in FP/win. Both of them and Fraser all do score fairly well, and with Nemiga playing with a new player aren’t the worst underdog stack.

Navi

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Navi V-Tune 1 54.5 73.1% 17.0 57.4% -37.5 -15.7%
Navi Iceberg 2 54.8 77.6% 12.6 61.8% -42.2 -15.8%
Navi Ramzes 3 48.1 68.2% 10.9 66.2% -37.2 -2.0%
Navi Rodjer 4 33.8 58.3% 7.1 57.4% -26.7 -0.9%
Navi Alwayswannafly 5 36.2 65.5% 5.5 67.6% -30.7 2.2%
Navi No One 2 58.2 22.0 -36.2
Navi Sonnieko 5 44.3 12.1 -32.2

I included the former Navi pos 2 and 5 for context, while including stats for No One and Sonnieko while they were on Gambit, as this of course is their debut for Navi. I’d expect No One and V-Tune to end up fairly similar in terms of FP/m in wins, as Iceberg was also a high KP mid, just like No One is. Sonnieko should be an upgrade over Alwayswannafly, so I’d expect the FP/m to be closer to Sonnieko’s number from Gambit than AWF’s. I was surprised how bad Rodjer’s FP/m numbers are, he’s been one of the best Pos 4’s in the CIS region for a long time, but he simply dies too much for DFS scoring recently.

Extremum

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Extremum nefrit 1 57.5 64.2% 22.0 60.5% -35.6 -3.7%
Extremum mellojul 2 64.4 79.7% 23.4 73.6% -41.0 -6.2%
Extremum blizzy 3 52.6 65.4% 16.0 68.8% -36.6 3.4%
Extremum chu 4 47.6 71.1% 14.4 71.0% -33.2 -0.1%
Extremum G 5 50.4 75.6% 13.6 61.8% -36.8 -13.8%

While they likely don’t stand much of a chance against Navi, if Extremum do pull off the upset it will likely be on mellojul’s back. G also averages a ton of points for a support, particularly relative to his pos 1 and 3 teammates, but again I don’t really think that’s actionable on this slate.

Gambit

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Gambit Dream 1 55.0 64.2% 20.4 60.4% -34.5 -3.8%
Gambit Lorenof 2 56.0 63.6% 24.3 66.5% -31.7 2.9%
Gambit Afterlife 3 43.1 62.9% 16.8 68.0% -26.3 5.1%
Gambit Immersion 4 42.2 66.6% 14.5 77.6% -27.7 11.0%
Gambit Eine 5 30.5 50.3% 0.8 33.6% -29.7 -16.7%

It’s the Dream and Lorenof show for Gambit. Eine really struggled in his first few games for Gambit, which could really hurt their chances this tournament. Afterlife is a super low scoring pos 3, Immersion almost outscores him even though he isn’t a particularly high scoring pos 4 himself.

Hellraisers

Team Player Position FP/M Wins KP% Wins FP/M Losses KP% Losses FP Diff Losses KP Diff Losses
Hellraisers Cooman 1 53.2 59.2% 23.8 55.1% -29.5 -4.0%
Hellraisers Young G 2 58.2 74.0% 25.6 67.6% -32.6 -6.3%
Hellraisers Resolution 3 57.9 74.0% 19.2 66.9% -38.7 -7.0%
Hellraisers Zayac 4 38.8 61.1% 14.9 66.9% -23.9 5.8%
Hellraisers Lil 5 41.7 64.0% 15.0 64.7% -26.7 0.7%

Last but not least we have Hellraisers. Resolution is this team’s best player, and it shows in that he almost leads the team in FP/m from the offlane. Zayac dies a lot without super high kill participation, Lil is the better play of the two supports.

Slate Breakdown

When I look at the slate a couple of the Vegas lines stick out to me. The first is Gambit vs Hellraisers. Yes Hellraisers did come from the lower division, but if you look at their roster they have upper division talent all over it. With Gambit’s recent roster shuffle, and in particular Eine struggling, Lorenof has been solid, I think Hellraisers should be slight favorites here. Hellraisers are super cheap on Wednesday, they help you fit some of the bigger favorites.

The other thing that jumped out at me was the Spirit vs Winstrike line. I don’t think Winstrike should be favorites or anything, but the last time these teams met Winstrike pushed their Bo5 series all the way to 5 games. Granted, Spirit just got a bunch of international experience and should be in top form, but I’d think this should be more like a 70/30 kind of line. Unfortunately, this isn’t super actionable in DFS, as even at 70/30 you’ll still only want a smattering of Winstrike. I’m just saying don’t rule them out.

The one team on the slate I will be ruling out is Extremum. With the additions of No One and Sonnieko, Navi are my personal favorites to be the TI qualifier from this region. Being that it’s a 6 game slate, it doesn’t seem super necessary to slam the biggest underdogs on the slate given that even if they win there’s no guarantee they’re optimal. Navi also project the best out of the 3 big favorites. I’m going to try to fit plenty of them and let other people make mistakes with their builds.

I think Nemiga could end up slightly overlooked on this slate. My assumption will be that most people use either Spirit or Navi as their big favorite, skipping right past Nemiga. I’d be more confident in this, weirdly enough, if more of the people who are going to play this tournament knew more about Dota. Spirit and Navi (and Gambit) are the “big” names, which should attract ownership. However, we have a ton of people who were gifted tickets coming to play who don’t know anything about Dota, so more of them may click on Nemiga by pure chance (and because Nemiga are a couple hundred dollars cheaper than Navi/Spirit.

I do not expect the 2 coinflip games to go overlooked however. Because the pricing in Dota always seems to be fairly tight, you either need to use a team from a coinflip game or an big underdog to make Spirit/Navi/Nemiga fit. Gambit might be able to work as the cheaper team but you’ll likely end up with support captain in that case. Fortunately, there are 4 coinflip teams so I don’t expect any of them to end up super chalky, but my guess is that Unique will get the most ownership of the 4 given that they are technically “favorites”. I’m sure I’ll use them but I’ll use more of the other 3 teams in hopes of getting that reduction in ownership. I have B8 projected as the best overall play, so I’ll have the most of them.

For my builds, I plan on sticking with mostly 4/2 with a bit of 3/3 mixed in (not counting team slot). As we get further and further into Dota dfs slates, it does seem like the overall game environment being high scoring is more important than a pos 4 vs pos 5, so I have no problem playing 2 supports from the same team. As the slates get bigger in number of games I also tend more towards 4/2, as there are more chances for one team to go huge and make it so you need a 4 stack of them to win.  As always, I want a core captain but I’m sure I’ll build a few with support captain to fit double favorites. Pay attention to which teams have highscoring offlaners (pos 3) and which teams don’t as some teams play much more through their offlane than others. Good luck on Wednesday!

 

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