The Omega League playoffs are almost to their close in both EU and NA, only a few series left and some of the top teams in the world competing. Should be some more exciting Dota!
9/4: 2-0 +1.94 units
YTD: 52-47 +7.07 units
On Friday our 2-0 really was just the Nigma series. They looked great against Team Liquid, really playing some high tier Dota. They had a tough task in Game 1, as Liquid had the far superior team fight. However, that team fight was on long cooldowns, and Nigma did a great job of dominating the map while the teamfight abilities were down, and artfully disengaging with minor losses when they were up. This allowed them to take a couple of uncontested Roshes, and they were able to put the game away from there. Game 2 was an utter stomp. Miracle snowballed out of control on his Medusa after getting a solo kill mid to start the game off. The rest of the team made space for him to farm until around minute 12, where they just group up and relentlessly pushed lanes, finishing the game after a fight in Liquids base that started just barely over 20 minutes in. Well done by Nigma. That makes 2 solid days in a row, let’s try to keep it going on Saturday.
Saturday brings us 2 more series in EU. We have:
Nigma (-147, -1.5 maps @ +204) vs
Alliance (+121, +1.5 maps @ -256) 11:00 am EST
While Nigma easily won their series one Friday, Alliance played a loooong one against EG. So long in fact that they basically played 4 games. Pretty far into Game 1, Arteezy disconnected. Normally that’s no big deal, he can just reconnect and keep playing. However, in the middle of this game, Valve put out a patch. The patch was only introducing a skin, but Dota automatically updates when you shut the game down, you literally can’t play unless you update. This caused Arteezy’s Dota client to be on a different patch than the server the game was in, so he couldn’t reconnect, and they were forced to remake the game and start over. Alliance had a fairly substantial lead at the time. Alliance went on to win the new “Game 1” before losing “Game 2”. They battled back in “Game 3” and managed to close out the series.
As for this matchup, these teams have met 3 times since rmN substituted in for Kuro. Nigma has won each matchup, but they have all been close, with series scores of 2-1, 3-2, and 2-1. These odds are expecting another close matchup, and really I think this is almost a mirror image of Nigma’s Friday matchup. Alliance are a good team, but not quite at that top level like Nigma is. I think Nigma has about a 65% chance to take this series, and -147 implies just under 60%. I’ll be the exact same bets here as I was Friday. I’ll again put a small bet on the map spread, as even though all 3 series with rmN have not been sweeps, Nigma has taken their game to another level, and are playing by far the best they have looked since Kuroky went on medical leave.
Nigma -147 (1.5 units)
Nigma -1.5 maps +204 (.5 units)
OG (+320, +1.5 maps @ -105) vs
Team Secret (-500, -1.5 maps @ -130) 2:00 pm EST
Secret are the best team in the world right now and it’s not particularly close. They absolutely demolished EG to start their upper bracket run, and can make just about any combination of heroes look like they are OP. OG look like the best team outside of China not named Team Secret. They put on a clinic against Nigma to start their upper bracket run, looking truly dominant and like the OG from TI. These teams just met on August 28th, a 2-0 stomp by Secret that took less than 50 minutes between the 2 games. However, I am mostly willing to throw that out the window as there was some truly bizarre drafting from OG. Again, bizarre drafting is one of OG’s calling cards (Secret’s too really), but OG forced Huskar into their draft in both games, even though Huskar is not a particularly strong hero right now, and he was hard countered in both games. I expect them to have much better drafts and play a much more competitive series on Saturday.
If you asked me who I think is going to win this series, my answer would be Secret. However, I think Secret win this series 60-65% of the time, meaning OG win the other 35-40%. +320 only gives OG a ~24% chance to win the series. That is far too low, OG should not be that big of underdogs against any team in the world. All of this adds up to an underdog special.
OG +320 (1 unit)
Quincy Crew (-500, -1.5 maps @ -195) vs
4 Zoomers (+315, +1.5 maps @ +140) 5:00 pm EST
Note that this is the grand final, so this series is a Best of 5, not a best of 3. This of course makes it easier for Quincy Crew to win the map spread, as a 3-1 victory would get it done instead of the clean sweep.
These teams have met a whopping 13 times since online only play started. With EG now in EU, they are the top 2 teams in NA/SA, and they meet over and over again in both the group stage and playoffs of events. Quincy Crew lead the series, with a record of 7-5-1. The map score is 18-16 over that time frame. That is an absolute ton of Dota, these teams must be so sick of playing each other by now. This will be the 3rd tournament they’ve met in the Grand Finals of (the record stands at 1-1, with both series going all 5 games). 4 Zoomers seem to be the only team in the region that Quincy Crew cannot dominate even when they turn it on for the playoffs. These teams just met in the upper bracket finals on Tuesday, which Quincy Crew did take 2-1.
All of the data points to this being a close contested series, Quincy Crew should win, but it’s likely to be close. The line however, does not indicate that at all, giving 4 Zoomers very little respect. You guessed it folks, we’re on another underdog special here.
4 Zoomers +315 (.5 units)
4 Zoomers +1.5 maps +140 (1 unit)