The playoffs of the Omega League roll on in EU. Friday brings us two lower bracket matches, the loser of each is eliminated from the tournament. The Grand Finals of the American division are also Friday, but I don’t see odds out yet as I’m writing this, so I will update Friday morning/early afternoon (series starts at 5pm EST)
9/3: 2-0 +2.06 units
YTD: 50-47 +5.13 units
Thursday was a really solid day for us. OG put on an absolute clinic in their series vs Nigma, crushing them in 2 straight games for the easy 2-0 victory. Both games OG simply played too fast for Nigma, as they came online first and just choked Nigma out of the map. This was the best I’ve seen OG look this year, and if they can play like that against Secret in the next round they should be able to keep it competitive. We didn’t bet it but Secret absolutely stomped OG in their series as well, continuing to show that they are the best team in the world right now.
In the NA series, 4 Zoomers took a 2-1 victory to give us the win. Make sure you’re in TESD discord (link at the top of the home page), as that’s where I posted this pick. 4 Zoomers looked great in Game 1, controlling the game en route to a comfortable victory. Game 2 also started off great, however their draft had a fundamental flaw. All 5 of their heroes relied almost entirely on magic damage. As soon as PA got her BKB she absolutely took the game over, and ended up dealing twice as much damage as any other hero in the server. I was pretty concerned about 4 Zoomers draft in Game 3, but they proved that first phasing the Nature’s Prophet (not the part I was worried about) and Terrorblade (the part I was worried about) was the right move. Gunnar played a great Nature’s Prophet mid, making space all over the map for Sammyboy’s signature Terrorblade to farm. And farm he did. By the end of the game Sammyboy had over 100 more last hits than anyone else and over 4k net worth. He simply became a raid boss that Thunder Predator could not bring down, and 4 Zoomers did a great job of closing the game out. Now, let’s keep this momentum going for Friday!
The EU games Friday are all best of 3 series, the NA series is a Best of 5. They are:
Nigma (-155, -1.5 maps @ +195) vs
Team Liquid (+110, +1.5 maps @ -275) 11:00 am EST
These teams have met 7 times since online only play started. Nigma has won 6 of those 7 matchups, with a map score of 14-7 (one of the series was a Bo5 the rest were Bo3). All of those series were with Kuroky, but I don’t rmN matters that much in this particular matchup. Nigma are the much more talented team, as 4/5 of these players have won a TI together and the full roster came in 2nd last TI (while the roster was playing for Liquid). Meanwhile, the Team Liquid roster used to struggle to qualify for major events when they played as Alliance. Current team Liquid has definitely improved, but they are still a level below Nigma in terms of both team play and skill.
-155 implies a ~61% chance Nigma wins this matchup, I think it should be closer to 65 or 70%, therefore I’ll be on them here. I’ll also be on the map spread for a small amount as the +195 only implies a ~34% chance Nigma wins 2-0, I think it should be in the high 30’s or even 40%.
Nigma -155 (1.5 units)
Nigma -1.5 maps +195 (.5 units)
Evil Geniuses (-160, -1.5 maps @ +190) vs
Alliance (+115, +1.5 maps @ -265) 2:00 pm EST
These two teams met on August 27th, a 2-0 victory for EG in 2 fairly long games, both over 40 minutes. In both games, Alliance allowed Rtz to get Arc Warden, and he absolutely crushed them both times. I have to imagine they won’t let Arc get through the draft this time around, and I think this should be a very tightly contested series. EG have been really up and down this tournament, gpk and Ramzes in particular. While I won’t hold the stomp that they took on Thursday at the hands of Team Secret against them, they’ve been stomping literally everyone, I do still think Alliance are very live in this matchup. Unfortunately, so does Vegas. I’d handicap this match up at about 55/45 in EG’s favor and that’s right where the line is. -160 implies EG has a 61.5% chance to win, while +115 implies Alliance have a 46.5% chance to win. I’ll be staying away here.
Stay tuned again on Friday for my pick(s) from the NA matchup. I’ll most likely post them in the discord and potentially also on twitter (@Tophdfs).