We are now into the playoffs of the Omega League in EU. This is some top tier Dota and it occurs right in the middle of the US work day, not that I’d ever encourage watching while you’re supposed to be working or anything of the sort. The upper bracket kicks off on Thursday, bringing us what should be 2 great series.
YTD: 48-47 +3.07 units
It’s been a little while since I’ve had a chance to write this column, but we’ve been up and down a bit lately. Still holding strong with a positive ROI for the year. Once this tournament wraps up and there’s a little bit of a lull in tier one action, I’ll do a full review of my bets thus far, and discuss how I self evaluate. That’s an important step that everyone should take every couple of months, as it really helps see where the potential holes have been in your strategy. Hopefully we can put up another couple of winning days between now and then to make that evaluation a bit more fun.
On to Thursday.
Nigma (-185, -1.5 maps @ +165) vs
OG (+135, +1.5 maps @ +135) 11:00 am EST
These two teams met back in the OGA Dota Pit, a 2-0 win for Nigma. However, I would put both those games on OG’s draft, as Game 1 they picked a safelane Meepo and Game 2 they picked a far too greedy combo of Faceless Void and Arc Warden. OG is always a bit unpredictable in their drafting, it’s part of what makes them so good, but I don’t expect such mistakes to me made in this series. OG has looked good except for their series against Secret, but Secret tends to do that to everyone (note that I am ignoring the series against Liquid, OG had 2nd place in the group wrapped up and Liquid desperately needed the win). Nigma has looked a little bit shaky, only beating Navi 2-0 in their group stage performance. They are still without Kuroky, and while rmN has filled in admirably, it does seem a little bit like teams are starting to take advantage. I don’t think Nigma with Kuroky drops a game to 5men, and they probably beat this version of EG as well.
I think this series should be a coin-flip, or even slightly OG favored. I’ll be on them here since we are getting plus odds.
OG +135 (1 unit)
Team Secret (-600, -1.5 maps @ -145) vs
Evil Geniuses (+365, +1.5 maps @ +105) 2:00 pm EST
I don’t think I’ve ever seen EG as this big of underdogs, or anything even close. However, Team Secret are simply that good. They have been absolutely crushing their competition so far in Omega League. They’ve dropped only one game, ironically the first game they played in the tournament, a 51 minute loss to Team Liquid en route to a 5-0 group stage performance. EG are the best team they’ll have faced in this tournament outside of OG, but it took them all of 50 minutes to beat OG when they played. That’s the combined time from both games by the way.
On the other side, EG went 3-2 in group play. They were the only team to take down group winner Nigma, but they also lost to both VP and Navi. Interestingly, those are the two CIS teams in the group, and EG currently has 2 CIS region players (gpk and Ramzes). Maybe they have a better understanding of how to beat their fellow countrymen/neighbors than the EU teams do. However, I don’t think this will make a difference against Secret (and VP and Navi are both out so EG won’t match up with another CIS team this tournament no matter what), Secret are simply too good. All that said, like OG they also get fairly creative in their drafting, and it’s definitely possible they drop a game. I would put the likelihood that Secret takes this 2-0 around 60%. Unfortunately the -185 number implies almost 65%, while EG’s +105 implies 49%. I don’t think there’s any value to be had here, so I’ll be staying away and hoping for some great Dota.
There’s also an NA game that will be added later (matchup is still pending an ongoing game), so keep your eyes peeled on discord and twitter for an update on that Thursday morning!