Day 2 of the group stage continues on with 2 more best of 3 matches.
8/8: 0-4 -5.5 units
YTD: 29-33 +0.94 units
What a horrible start the tournament. Thunder Predator evidently corrected their issues in the few days off, as they looked like the team that had dominated all of June/July instead of the one that struggled last week. Cr4Zy still put up a strong fight, losing a back and forth Game 1, dominating Game 2, before being dominated in the pivotal Game 3. This outcome doesn’t bother me too much, although I do think I put a little bit too much weight onto Thunder Predators recent form (as did Vegas honestly).
The game that I’m kicking myself about is the Business Associates matchup. Not only did they not cover the -1.5 map spread they actually lost the series to Infamous, 2-1. Full disclosure I have a personal bias against EternalEnvy. It stems from a situation a year or two back where EE was on a team and kicked that team’s Mid Player (Gunnar who now plays for 4 Zoomers). Gunnar then went to a new team. The original team disbanded shortly after Gunnar was kicked, and EE ended up finding his way onto Gunnar’s new team. They then managed to qualify for a Major. After an honestly not that bad performance at a smaller tournament between the qualifier and the major EE used his influence to again have Gunnar kicked and brought in the same player EE replaced him with before, meaning Gunnar was no longer able to play in the Major he had helped qualify for. Meanwhile this was set to be Gunnar’s first major LAN event and his parents had even bought tickets to Europe to watch him play. The reason I bring this up is because I think I have overcompensated in my attempt to be “unbiased” when looking at the current Business Associates team. The fact of the matter is they have shown they can lose to anyone, and should be treated as a tier below the top NA teams. When they bring their A game they can compete with anyone, they just rarely bring their A game. Until they show more consistency, it will take a line that is very skewed for me to bet on this team.
Moving on to Day 2…
We again have 2 best of 3 matchups on Sunday. Again for whatever reason Bovada isn’t offering odds, I have tweeted and emailed them about this now, so all lines are from Pinnacle. The matchups are:
Gorillaz-Pride (+321, +1.5 maps @ +102) vs
Beastcoast (-488, -1.5 maps @ -136) 1:00 pm EST
Gorillaz-Pride are the South American team that will be simply overmatched from a talent perspective in this tournament. The only “T1” team they’ve taken even a map off of this year is Midas Club when they were still playing as Furia (they won that series 2-0). Midas are barely even T1 within South America as they are a pretty distant 4th best team in the region.
Beastcoast should have no trouble with this team. They’ve continued to struggle a bit with the top NA teams and Thunder Predator, but they are still a cut above the rest of the South American teams. -136 implies a 57% chance that Beastcoast win 2-0, I think that number should be closer to 75%. Needless to say I will be heavily on Beastcoast in this spot.
Beastcoast -1.5 maps -136 (2 units)
Quincy Crew (-385, -1.5 maps @ -111) vs
4 Zoomers (+263, +1.5 maps @ -120) 4:00 pm EST
These teams have met 8 times since online only play began. Over that time Quincy Crew is 4-3-1 (W-L-T) vs 4 Zoomers. The map score is 12-11 in favor of Quincy Crew. Two of the 4 Zoomers wins were back at the end of April, as the won 2-0 in an Upper bracket final and then 3-2 in the Grand Final the next day. I don’t think the talent on these teams is as close as the history indicates, however I do think it is closer than the line indicates. Quincy Crew have shown a tendency to play sloppy, particularly during the group stage of events. My speculation is that they are getting bored. Without EG in the mix this team is head and shoulders above the rest of the NA and SA competition, and have been playing (and mostly beating) the same teams over and over again since March. They turn it on in the playoffs, but keeping that intensity during the group stage is incredibly difficult. Just look at The Great American Rivalry tournament that just ended. Quincy Crew dropped games during the group stage (in best of 2 series mind you) to Infinity and Midas Club, plus lost 2-0 to this 4 Zoomers team, including blowing a Game where they had a 99% win probability at one point. They then turned around and absolutely steamrolled the playoffs, dropping only 1 map (to this same 4 Zoomers team) the entire playoffs.
Long story short, I think this line is far too skewed towards Quincy Crew. 4 Zoomers have shown to be their toughest out in NA now that EG isn’t playing, plus Quincy Crew tends to lose focus during group stages of these online events. Give me the dogs here.
4 Zoomers +263 (.5 units)
4 Zoomers +1.5 maps -120 (1.5 units)