More NA/SA Dota on tap for Monday!
7/30: 1-1 0 units
YTD: 28-28 +6.04 units
This was a frustrating 1-1 for the day. Quincy Crew took Game 1 against 4 Zoomers in a long game, but one that they had control of pretty much throughout. Then in Game 2 they jumped out to a 10k gold lead at 16 minutes. That is MASSIVE gold lead for that early in the game. Their win % likelihood topped out at 87%. They then proceeded to chain feed away the entire lead and almost immediately lose the map, with the ancient falling just over 34 minutes in. Of course, they then came out in Game 3 and won wire to wire, giving us the 1-1 on the series.
The throwing of games that should be in the bag is definitely a worrying trend for Quincy Crew, and could cost them series if/when they start playing elite teams from other regions. It’s hard to be too upset from a betting standpoint though, as just over a week ago we were on the other side of this matchup, benefiting from Quincy Crew throwing an even bigger lead against this same 4 Zoomers team.
On to Monday!
Monday we have the opening round of the lower bracket and the second round. Of course that second round matchup will depend on who wins the first games, so you can check in on Twitter (@Tophdfs) or discord to see if I like any of the lines for that matchup.
Thunder Predator (-800, -1.5 maps @ -180) vs
Infamous (+475, +1.5 maps @ +140) 1:00 pm EST
Thunder Predator played uncharacteristically sloppy vs Cr4Zy yesterday, leaving their base completely undefended in Game 1 while they attempted to Rosh and blowing a huge laning stage lead in Game 2. However, Cr4Zy is at least close to if not at the same skill level as TP, while Infamous are not.
These teams have met 3 times since the start of April, all 2-0 victories for Thunder Predator. They simply outclass their South American brethren. I expect more of the same this series. -180 implies a ~64% chance that Thunder Predator wins 2-0, I think it should be closer to 70%, so there’s some value to be had here.
Thunder Predator -1.5 maps -180 (2 units)
4 Zoomers (-195, -1.5 maps @ +160) vs
Beastcoast (+140, +1.5 maps @ -220) 4:00 pm EST
These two teams have met twice since the start of April, each has a 2-0 series win. Both teams have been up and down of late, 4 Zoomers are 4-4-2 (W-L-T) in their last 10 games while Beastcoast are 5-5-0. On paper this series is about as much of a toss-up as you can get. Since Beastcoast has plus odds in what I view as a coinflip, I’ll be on them here.
Beastcoast +140 (1 unit)
Beastcoast +1.5 maps -200 (2 units)