Group play of Omega League rolls on in EU Friday while the playoffs continue in ESL One Thailand for NA.
YTD: 45-46 +1.36 units
For series on Friday we have:
Team Liquid (-160, -1.5 maps @ +190) vs
FlytoMoon (+115, +1.5 maps @ -265) 11:00 am EST
Liquid leads this series 2-0 since online only play began, with a map score of 4-1. Both teams come into this matchup struggling immensely, Liquid has lost 3 straight to open the tournament, including losses to NiP and Vikin.gg (teams they should beat). FlytoMoon also has a loss to Vikin.gg but did manage to 2-0 NiP. Liquid did manage to take a game off of Team Secret, the only map Secret has dropped all tournament, so the potential is still there for excellent play from this team.
All that being considered, Team Liquid are definitely the better roster here, and should win this series 65-70% of the time. -160 only implies 61.5% of the time so we have some value here.
Team Liquid -160 (1 unit)
Team Secret (-300, -1.5 maps @ +115) vs
OG (+210, +1.5 maps @ -155) 2:00 pm EST
It’s not often you see the two time reigning world champions as +210 underdogs, but here we are. Secret have definitely been the best team in the world so far in 2020, but OG is rounding into championship form themselves. Secret is 4-0 so far in the tournament with a 8-1 map score, OG is 3-0 with a 6-1 map score. The teams haven’t met since Ceb came back for OG.
It’s fair for Secret to be favored here, as OG still needs to prove they are really all the way back. However, I don’t think they should be this large of favorites. +210 implies OG has a 32.3% chance to win this series, that should be at least 35-40%. There is definite value on the OG side of things in this matchup.
OG +210 (1 unit)
Quincy Crew (-800, -1.5 maps @ -180) vs
Infamous (+450, +1.5 maps @ +130) 1:00 pm EST
Quincy Crew were surprisingly knocked into the lower bracket after a 2-0 loss to 4 Zoomers, while it’s surprising that Infamous even made it to the playoffs. The teams have met twice, with Quincy Crew taking both matchups, to the tune of a 4-1 map score. Infamous did take a game in the group stages of this tournament and have played really well of late in general, but this team is simply overmatched here.
Now in the lower bracket I expect Quincy Crew to be fully locked in and awake. I would be very surprised if they don’t take this series 2-0, I think there’s about a 70-75% chance that’s the outcome. -180 implies ~65%, so there is value to be had here.
Quincy Crew -1.5 maps -180 (2 units)