Sunday afternoon we have the final games of the group stage of ESL One Thailand Americas, with 4 games all kicking off simultaneously so as to prevent any chicanery around the seeding. I honestly have no idea how the points work for standings in this tournament and can’t find how the points/tiebreakers work anywhere online. On Liquidpedia it looks like Quincy Crew is locked into a playoff spot, while Beastcoast, Business Associates, and Gorillaz-Pride are eliminated:
However, if you look at the actual ESL One Thailand website, the standings have points attached that are pretty different, as you can see here (apologies for the blurry photo):
The points on these standings are correlated to individual map wins, whereas Liquipedia has the standings based on series wins. Since this is the official ESL website I am going to assume it’s correct, which means the only teams with nothing to play for today are G-Pride and Beastcoast. G-Pride have essentially been eliminated for a while, and I wouldn’t expect anything different from them. Beastcoast on the other hand, I could see getting a bit funky with their drafts, trying out new strategies that aren’t super likely to work.
8/21: 2-2 +-.89 units
YTD: 44-42 +4.33 units
Friday went alright, 5men continued to show they belong in the T1 European scene, taking a game off of Nigma and losing us our -1.5 maps bet in doing so. OG got the win over FlytoMoon 2-0, continuing to look better and better despite the occasional scare. Thunder Predator not only didn’t cover the -1.5 spread against Infamous, they actually lost the series, getting dominated in both Games 2 and 3 after taking Game 1. Really impressive performance from Infamous here. 4 Zoomers salvaged the day for us, taking a quick 2-0 against G-Pride to bring us to 2-2 on the day and not a massive loss.
On to Sunday!
Sunday’s series are still all best of 3’s. We have:
4 Zoomers (-175, -1.5 maps @ +175) vs
Thunder Predator (+125, +1.5 maps @ -245) 1:00 pm EST
These teams have met 5 times since online only play began. Thunder Predator leads the overall series 3-1-1 (W-L-T) with a map score of 9-4. However, the last 2 series have been a 1-1 tie and a 2-1 win for 4 Zoomers, so it appears the tides have turned a bit recently. Neither team comes into the matchup in great form, Thunder Predator having recently lost to Beastcoast twice and Infamous, while 4 Zoomers has also lost to Infamous, and has a loss to Business Associates plus dropped a game to something called “Boonz and Goonz” (they won the series). This series is crucial for both teams as despite 4 Zoomers being 4-2 while TP is 3-3, TP actually has more points, winning 9 individual maps to 4 Zoomers 8, meaning TP is ahead in the standings by 1 point.
I think 4 Zoomers are the slightly better team here, and the odds say exactly the same thing. +125 gives TP a ~44% implied win probability, while -175 gives 4 Zoomers a ~64% implied win probability. 55/45 is about where this series should land, so there’s not really value on either side here. I’ll be staying away and watching for what I hope to be an entertaining Dota series.
Beastcoast (+105, +1.5 maps @ -280) vs
Business Associates (-145, -1.5 maps @ +205) 1:00 pm EST
These teams have met 3 times since the start of online only play, with Beastcoast leading the series 2-1 and the map score 4-3. That’s obviously a really small sample size, and is missing 2 important factors. The 1st is that Business Associates have swapped roles, moving EE to his natural position of carry (pos 1) and Moo to mid (pos 2). This has really helped them as they’ve either beaten or taken a game off of every top team they’ve played recently. The 2nd factor is that this series is meaningless for Beastcoast, and of the utmost importance for Business Associates. BA can still make the playoffs, as even though they are 2-4 they actually have 8 map wins, meaning they are right in contention for a playoff spot. I expect Beastcoast to be somewhat checked out here, and/or draft some odd picks to test some low percentage strategies. I’ll be on Business Associates in this spot.
Business Associates -145 (1.5 units)
Business Associates -1.5 maps +205 (.5 units)
Cr4Zy (+215, +1.5 maps @ -155) vs
Quincy Crew (-305, -1.5 maps @ +110) 1:00 pm EST
Quincy Crew lead the series 8-1-1 (W-L-T) since the start of online only play, with a map score of 19-5. This game is important for both teams, as Quincy Crew could still conceivably end up in a tiebreaker to make the playoffs, which I’m not sure how exactly it would work, while Cr4Zy could entirely miss the playoffs with a loss. I expect both teams to bring their A effort at least to this series. That means that Quincy Crew should dominate. They have absolutely owned this matchup, and I expect more of the same today. I will certainly take the -1.5 maps at plus odds here.
Quincy Crew -1.5 maps +110 (1 unit)
Infamous (-650, -1.5 maps @ -155) vs
Gorillaz-Pride (+385, +1.5 maps @ +110) 1:00 pm EST
Infamous are 2-0 in series and 5-0 in maps against G-Pride since the start of online only play. Also, they have been playing some really strong Dota of late. I initially wrote off the 2-0 win over 4 Zoomers as a fluke, but after also beating Thunder Predator 2-1 there might be a little bit more going on here. They even took a game off of Quincy Crew. This form will be something to keep an eye on if they get into the playoffs, which they should as a win today guarantees them a playoff spot (I think). This should be another stomp, as G-Pride are unfortunately simply outclassed by every team in this tournament. I’m on Infamous here.
Infamous -1.5 maps -155 (1.5 units)