Just like Thursday, we have another 5 game slate from the combination of EU and NA on Friday.
8/20: 4-0 +3.46 units
YTD: 42-40 +5.22 units
What a day for us on Thursday! We went 4-0 on our picks. I felt that both Vikin.gg and EG were mispriced as underdogs, and while it took both of them all 3 games, both came through with series victories. Business Associates were able to steal Game 1 off of Quincy Crew which appeared to wake them up a bit, as they then firmly controlled Games 2 and 3. However, Game 1 was all we needed for BA to cover the +1.5 map spread, so we got a win there too. In our final bet of the day, Thunder Predator came out and dominated Gorillaz-Pride, as expected. There was simply too big of a skill gap here for this line to be less than -300.
Let’s try to keep this rolling on Friday!
Again both tournaments Friday are Best of 5 series, the matchups are:
Team Liquid (-245, -1.5 maps @ +130) vs
Vikin.gg (+175, +1.5 maps @ -180) 8:00 am EST
These teams have met only once since the start of online only play, a 2-0 win for Vikin.gg back in late May. In that series, Liquid took an early lead in both games, only to let it slip away. The knock against this Team Liquid roster, going back to their days as Alliance, has always been that they cannot finish games, and it looks like that’s what happened here. That said, I am not putting too much stock into the previous matchup. Liquid are still the better team here, although I have been impressed by Vikin.gg. I don’t think there’s enough value on either side of this line to want to bet it.
Nigma (-450, -1.5 maps @ -120) vs
5men (+290, +1.5 maps @ -115) 11:00 am EST
Since 5men are newly formed, these teams have never met. While 5men does have players with a tier 1 pedigree, most of them are on the latter side of their careers. Even without Kuroky, Nigma have still looked like a formidable team of late, pushing EG (who destroyed 5men a few days ago) to the brink on Thursday. They should take this series rather easily. -120 implies a 54.5% chance they win 2-0, I think it should be more like 60-65%, so we have some value here.
Nigma -1.5 maps -120 (1 unit)
OG (-275, -1.5 maps @ +120) vs
FlytoMoon (+190, +1.5 maps @ -170) 2:00 pm EST
These teams met back in the OGA Dota Pit tournament a few weeks ago, in which OG picked up a 2-0 victory. They’ve only had more time to practice and gel since then, while FlytoMoon has made a roster change. MidOne still occasionally throws a little bit even as carry, but I think this OG team is simply too talented for FlytoMoon. I think they have a slightly greater than 50% chance to win this series 2-0, yet they are plus odds. I’ll be on them here.
OG -1.5 +120 (1 unit)
Thunder Predator (-600, -1.5 maps @ -150) vs
Infamous (+370, +1.5 maps @ +110) 1:00 pm EST
These teams have met 5 times since the start of online only play. Over that time Thunder Predator is 5-0, with a map score of 10-1, including a 2-0 drubbing on Tuesday that took just under 1 hour of total game time. Nothing has changed since then, and I think there is a ~75% chance TP takes this series 2-0. -150 only implies a 60% chance, so I think there is plenty of value to be had here. Needless to say I’ll be on Thunder Predator in this spot.
Thunder Predator -1.5 maps @ -150 (2 units)
4 Zoomers (-1200, -1.5 maps @ -220) vs
Gorillaz-Pride (+550, +1.5 maps @ +155) 4:00 pm EST
I’m sure I’m starting to sound like a broken record here, but Gorillaz-Pride is simply a tier (or two) below the other teams at this tournament. 4 Zoomers are roughly as good as Thunder Predator, who were just -290 favorites to win 2-0 in this same spot Thursday, and I thought that was too low. Naturally, I think -220 is also far too low, so I’ll be on 4 Zoomers in this spot.
4 Zoomers -1.5 maps -220 (2 units)