EU and NA both play on Thursday. We’re in for a jam packed day of Dota, with 5 top tier matches on the slate.
8/19: 2-1 +.55 units
YTD: 38-40 +1.75 units
The day started off great on Wednesday. Cr4Zy took a 2-0 series win against Beastcoast and looked really good in the process. They did a great job of abusing Beastcoasts drafts, particularly in Game 2 where Beastcoast drafted a greedy, long cooldown heavy lineup. Cr4Zy lost a few a fights when Beastcoast had all of their cooldowns up, but Cr4Zy was relentless with their pressure, forcing Beastcoast to either fight without their cooldowns or run and hide instead of farming. Impressive series on their part.
4 Zoomers on the other hand, yikes. Not only did they not cover the -1.5 maps spread, they didn’t win a game let alone the series. I haven’t had a chance to watch yet, but from the graphs I can tell that Game 1 they blew a massive 20k gold lead, and I assume they just lost focus as they were easily beating an “inferior” opponent. They literally didn’t trail in gold until seconds before the game ended, and even then the last recorded gold lead was 1.6k in favor of Infamous (which is literally nothing that late in the game). Game 2 looks more like a draft issue than anything else. 4 Zoomers drafted 2.5 (I’m counting Winter Wyvern as .5 because when Arctic Burn is up he can fly over trees) heroes whose biggest problem is mobility, they are slow and super easy to kill if you can get on top of them. Well Infamous drafted 3 heroes with abilities that allow them to get on top of anyone, and a 4th hero who can teleport anywhere on the map. 4 Zoomers tried their best to itemize around this, buying blink daggers and force staffs galore, but it was too late by the time they got them, as Infamous had taken a nearly 10k gold lead at around the 20 minute mark. 4 Zoomers closed the gap for a little while, but ultimately couldn’t overcome it. I am not pushing the panic button here yet, but losing 2-0 to Business Associates and then Infamous in back to back series isn’t a great look for 4 Zoomers.
All in all, still a positive day, but could’ve definitely been a bit better. On to Thursday.
Both tournaments Thursday are Best of 5 series, the matchups are:
FlytoMoon (-145, -1.5 maps @ +205) vs
Vikin.gg (+105, +1.5 maps @ -290) 8:00 am EST
These teams have met 5 times since online only play began. The series is tied at 2-2-1 (W-L-T) with a 5-5 map score. Note that the most recent series was technically a 2-1 FlytoMoon win, but I am not counting the 3rd game (and thus counting the series as a tie) because Vikin.gg had a player lose internet and had to play the 3rd game down a man (they forfeited after only a few minutes of play). Since that series, FlytoMoon has made a roster change, Alohadance has left the team while Rodjer has joined. Once heralded as one of the top position 4’s in the CIS region, Rodjer has fallen a long ways in recent times, and has earned himself a reputation of not exactly being the best teammate. However, he is still a talented player, so in the long run this may be a slight upgrade for FlytoMoon depending on how it affects the team chemistry. In the short term I think there will be an adjustment period, so I would say it’s a net 0 for this series in particular.
Vikin.gg have been playing well recently. They took a game off of OG in their first match of this tournament, before beating NiP 2-1. FlytoMoon is yet to play in this tournament. I think Vikin.gg should actually be a slight favorite in this spot, but instead we are getting them at plus odds. I’ll be on them here.
Vikin.gg +105 (1 unit)
Team Secret (-2000, -1.5 maps @ -300) vs
Ninjas in Pajamas (+750, +1.5 maps @ +210) 11:00 am EST
These teams have met twice since NiP signed the current squad in late April, and once before that when they were still known as “Chicken Fighters” Team Secret is 3-0 with a 6-1 map score. Team should easily take this series, they are the best team in the world and frankly this version of NiP are a T2 (within EU) team. They cannot consistently compete with the top dogs, even if they do take a game here and there. However, everything I just said is already baked into the lines.
One of Team Secret’s calling cards is playing unique heroes or heroes in unique roles. Most of the time they are great at this, but occasionally they experiment too much and end up dropping a game. I think there’s enough of a chance that they do that here that I’ll be staying off of the map line at such drastic odds.
Nigma (-165, -1.5 maps @ +185) vs
Evil Geniuses (+120, +1.5 maps @ -260) 2:00 pm EST
EG made their EU debut last weekend and absolutely crushed 5men. Now the jury is still out on just how impressive that is, as 5men had never played a team nearly as talented as EG, but it is worth noting that gpk looked great in his EG debut. Nigma presents a much more difficult task. Somehow, Nigma just keep winning without their captain and leader, Kuroky. EG will be the best team they have faced without him though, and I expect it to finally catch up with them. I think EG should be slight favorites here or at least 50/50, so I’ll be on them with plus odds.
EG +120 (1 unit)
Quincy Crew (-600, -1.5 maps @ -145) vs
Business Associates (+355, +1.5 maps @ +105) 1:00 pm EST
These teams have met a whopping 10 times since online only play started, with Quincy Crew up 9-0-1 (W-L-T). The map score from those games is 19-6 in their favor. They have 4 2-0 victories, 5 2-1 victories, and of course the 1-1 tie. Quincy Crew have continued to look a bit sloppy during group play of tournaments, as with EG now in EU they are far and away the best team left in the NA/SA region, and are undoubtedly bored of beating up on the same competition. Business Associates on the other hand have finally been playing a bit better, I do think the swap of EE back to his more natural position of carry and Moo to mid has helped them. They were even able to 2-0 4 Zoomers recently, and controlled both games in the series.
Between Business Associates improved play and Quincy Crew’s lack of focus, I think there’s about a 50/50 chance Business Associates take a game here. Since they have plus odds on doing that, I’ll be taking a shot on it, just a small one though.
Business Associates +1.5 maps +105 (.5 units)
Thunder Predator (-1800, -1.5 maps @ -290) vs
Gorillaz-Pride (+700, +1.5 maps @ +205) 4:00 pm EST
The final series of the day pits the top team in SA vs a T2 team from SA. Thunder Predator is only 2-2 in group play, which has them in a 3 way tie for 5th (although Beastcoast has played one more series). They need to get into the top 4 to advance to the playoffs, so I do not expect them to take any chances here. G-Pride unfortunately simply does not have the skill to match up with anyone in this tournament. They took 1 game off of Beastcoast in their opening match, but then lost the next 3 2-0. I expect that to continue here as Thunder Predator should roll.
Thunder Predator -1.5 maps -290 (2 units)