After a couple of days without any top tier play, Dota is back Sunday with the 1st round of The Great American Rivalry playoffs.
7/30: 1-2 -1.95 units
YTD: 27-27 +6.04 units
The day started off great for us as OG rolled to a victory in 25 minutes in Game 1 of their series vs Alliance. However, after that the wheels completely fell off as Alliance dominated Games 2 and 3, winning each in just over 30 minutes and leading wire to wire in each game. OG seems to have a different read on the meta and what heroes are good from anyone else in this tournament, and it definitely hurt them in this series.
Immediately after that, Alliance was up against Team Nigma in a rematch of the Upper Bracket finals. The odds came out and had Alliance as +200 underdogs, which was simply too big. Alliance ended up pushing the series to a 5th and final game, but came up just short. I stand by this bet though, as if anything the series showed that these two teams were incredibly close to each other. Alliance should have been +120 or so, not the +200 that they were.
After continuing to have a tough time in EU, Thunder Predator thankfully came out and took care of business, absolutely crushing Vira-Lata in their 2 games. Both games combined took just over 40 minutes.
Moving on to Sunday’s games.
Sunday we have the opening round of The Great American Rivalry playoffs. These are upper bracket games, meaning the loser is not eliminated. We finally have best of 3’s all the way until the Grand Finals which is a best of 5.
Thunder Predator (-145, -1.5 maps @ +205) vs
Cr4Zy (+105, +1.5 maps @ -290) 1:00 pm EST
Thunder Predator comes into this series as the 1 seed, having gone 6-0-3 (W-L-T) during the “regular season” portion of the event. Cr4Zy comes in as the 4 seed, having gone 4-1-4 (W-L-T). These teams have played pretty evenly in their recent history, in 5 matchups since the start of April the series stands at 2-2-1 (W-L-T) with Thunder Predator narrowly up in games 7-6. Only 1 of the 5 series has been a clean 2-0 victory, a win for TP back in June.
The odds line right up with the stats, this game is priced much more accurately than many of these NA/SA series have been. I don’t see any value here, so I’ll be staying away.
4 Zoomers (+180, +1.5 maps @ -180) vs
Quincy Crew (-250, -1.5 maps @ +130) 4:00 pm EST
4 Zoomers actually earned the 2 seed in the playoffs, coming in with a record of 6-1-2 (W-L-T). Yet they are pretty big underdogs to the 3 seed in Quincy Crew (5-1-3). These teams have met 7 times since the beginning of April and have played to a 3-3-1 (W-L-T) stalemate. The map score is also tied 10-10. However, if you look at only the current version of Quincy Crew, since Lelis joined back in June, the series is 3-1-1 in favor of Quincy Crew, with a map score of 8-5. 4 Zoomers did win the most recent series 2-0, but Quincy Crew should have won Game 1, blowing a 20k gold lead.
Quincy Crew seems to get a bit bored in the early portion of events, but show up to play in the playoffs, having come in 1st or 2nd in all 7 of the online events in NA/SA since quarantine started. The only team other than EG to beat them is this 4 Zoomers squad, but that was back in April. Quincy Crew is the superior team here, and I expect them to bring their A game today. If they do that they should take this series fairly easily.
Quincy Crew G1 -250 (2.5 units)
Quincy Crew -1.5 maps +130 (1 unit)