We’re back Saturday with 4 more games, 2 from EU and 2 from NA. The NA games are actually the ones I wrote up for Friday, as I screwed up the date and thought they were Friday when they were in fact Saturday.
8/13: 1-2 -0.62 units
YTD: 35-38 +1.45 units
OG had a tough game in Game 1 against Vikin.gg. The Alchemist simply got too big, and OG couldn’t quite stretch the game long enough for their lineup to scale better than Vikin.gg’s. They had a few really close fights but ultimately the early game lead Vikin.gg built was just too much to overcome. Game 2 was pretty close until OG managed to pull away about 30 minutes in, and Game 3 was a stomp in favor of OG, at least salvaging the moneyline portion of the bet for us.
VP looked horrible in Game 1. They were absolutely stomped as Alliance did whatever they wanted on the map. Game 2 was a much better performance, but Alliance was ultimately still able to get it done. I was disappointed by what I saw from this team today, and my hopes that their layoff had helped them regain the VP of old form were pretty much dashed by this series.
On to Saturday
Saturday’s matchups are:
Ninjas in Pajamas (+165, +1.5 maps @ -190) vs
Vikin.gg (-230, -1.5 maps @ +140) 8:00 am EST
Even though Vikin.gg lost vs OG Friday, I was impressed by their performance. They showed they know how to draft well and play to their win conditions. NiP on the other hand, well they looked horrible in the OGA Dota Pit tournament, and they had Cr1t, one of the best supports in the world, standing in for them their. Now they have Misha, who is a fine player, but is no Cr1t. I’m not expecting much from this NiP team in this tournament.
I think it’s about 50/50 that Vikin.gg take this series 2-0, and since the map spread is plus money I’ll be on that here.
Vikin.gg -1.5 maps +140 (1 unit)
Evil Genuises (-220, -1.5 maps @ +145) vs
5men (+155, +1.5 @ 200) 11:00 am EST
5men managed to take down Navi, 2-1 on Friday. Game 1 they stomped, Game 2 they got stomped, and Game 3 they were mostly in control but it was close for a while. Navi is not on the same level as EG, but it’s an impressive win nonetheless. This will be EG’s first series playing with gpk. We have very little data to go on for either side here, so I’ll be staying away.
Note that the writeups from NA haven’t changed from Friday, as the games I thought were Friday are actually Saturday.
Cr4Zy (-1400, -1.5 maps @ -235) vs
Gorillaz-Pride (+575, +1.5 maps @ +165) 1:00 pm EST
Note that this game actually starts before the last EU game, I’ve put them slightly out of time order to keep the regions separate.
Gorillaz-Pride are a little bit better than Vira-Lata from the previous NA/SA tournament, but they are still far less talented than their competition in this tournament. Until we starts seeing -400 or worse lines I am planning on betting the map spread when they play the top teams in the region, which Cr4Zy are a part of. Cr4Zy is off to a 1-2 start in the group stage, so they shouldn’t be messing around or experimenting in this series. I like them to take it in relatively easy fashion, much like Quincy Crew did the other day.
Cr4Zy -1.5 maps -265 (2 units)
Beastcoast (-225, -1.5 maps @ +140) vs
Infamous (+160, +1.5 maps @ -195) 4:00 pm EST
These teams have somehow only met twice since the start of online only play, with Beastcoast taking both series to the tune of a 4-1 map score. They are clearly the more talented team. However, they have been very inconsistent of late, even dropping a game to Gorillaz-Pride in their series the other day. I think this game is priced correctly, and will therefore be staying away.