EU Dota is finally back! This will be the first time since I started writing this article that we’ll get to see the consensus World Number 1, Team Secret, plus a couple more of the world heavy hitters. EG has also decided to play in EU for the foreseeable future, presumably to up the competition level they face, as it was really just Quincy Crew to challenge them in NA. It is worth noting the gpk is standing in for Abed at mid for them.
NA play also continues to roll along, so we’ll have a jam packed day of Dota ahead of us with 5 total series between the 2 regions.
8/13: 0-2 -2 units
YTD: 34-36 +2.07 units
We had a tough day Thursday, losing what I view as 2 coinflips with plus odds on both. Cr4zy vs 4 Zoomers ended up as a 2-0 for 4 Zoomers. I unfortunately have’t had a chance to watch the series yet, but from looking at the stats it appears 4 Zoomers won Game 1 pretty comfortably while in Game 2 Cr4Zy had a lead for most of the early/mid game until 4 Zoomers took over at around minute 25.
Quincy Crew did manage to beat Thunder Predator 2-1 but unfortunately dropped Game 2, and thus the -1.5 maps. They mostly controlled Game 1, giving us a quick scare around 40 minutes in before ultimately regaining control. Game 2 they also looked to be in the drivers seat, stretching their gold lead to ~7k about 25 minutes in. However, as has been the case fairly often during group play with this team, they couldn’t end the game and ended up blowing the lead. They then proceeded to stomp Game 3, taking a lead right at the end of the laning stage and never looking back.
I would still make the same bets again, like I said we were getting plus odds on coinflips, the coinflips just didn’t go our way today. Oh well, on to Friday, which a slate jammed back with action.
All the matches Friday in both EU and NA are best of 3. They are:
Navi (-120, -1.5 maps @ +223) vs
5men (-111, +1.5 maps @ -317) 8:00 am EST
The first matchup of the day pits on of Dota’s oldest and most storied organizations, Navi, versus a brand new one in 5men. While the team may be new though, they players on 5men are not. 3/5 (Ace, Misery, Pieliedie) have played at the highest levels, having all been on numerous top tier teams. Chessie and Xibbe, their other 2 players, have teetered on the edge of T1 teams in Europe for quite some time. The pedigree of the players on 5men is almost definitely better than that of Navi, who have a few relatively unknown quantities on their current squad.
5men have only played 4 official matches, all during the qualifier to this tournament. They are 4-0 though, dropping only 1 game (to B8, Dendi’s current team). The teams they played against weren’t the best of the best, but they were all solid teams each having at least 1 player who has previously played on top tier teams.
We last saw Navi play in the OGA Dota Pit EU, where they impressed by opening with a 2-0 over VP.Prodigy…only to immediately get 2-0’d by both Alliance and FlyToMoon. The Alliance loss I can excuse, but the 2-0 to FlyToMoon is concerning. I’d be on 5men here if they had plus odds, but given that this is essentially a coinflip, I’ll be taking a wait and see approach with the new squad.
OG (-265, -1.5 maps @ +125) vs
Vikin.gg (+190, +1.5 maps @ -170) 11:00 am EST
These two teams met in Ceb’s first series back with OG. OG picked up a 2-0 win in that series which ironically led me to being overconfident in them for basically the rest of the tournament and losing a bunch of money betting on them. That said, OG have no had plenty of time to practice and scrim with Ceb back in the roster, and I’m expecting big things from them going forward. I expect them to take a 2-0 here against Vikin.gg. OG have the clearly superior talent, and the 44.4% chance implied by +125 is too low. That number should be closer to 50-55%.
OG -265 (1 unit)
OG -1.5 maps +125 (.5 units)
Virtus.Pro (+105, +1.5 maps @ -290) vs
Alliance (-145, -1.5 maps @ +205) 2:00 pm EST
While this iteration of VP has been a bit of a disappointment, I was surprised to see them at plus odds here versus Alliance. Alliance did take a 2-0 victory when these teams met back in June, but I think the talent levels are very even, maybe slightly VP tilted. VP have long been the class of CIS and I expect worked hard to improve over their layoff. They recently got back Artstyle as their coach, which make should make a big difference for this team.
Alliance lost in 5 games to Team Nigma in the OGA Dota Pit Grand Finals. As impressive as that sounds, Team Nigma were (and still are) playing without Kuroky as he takes a medical leave. The only teams they beat were NiP, Navi, and an OG squad who had just brought Ceb back in. I am a big fan of Nikobaby, but I’m not 100% sold on the rest of this team.
I am going to take a small shot on VP here, but really this whole day I am going to play a bit cautiously as even the teams that played in OGA Dota Pit we haven’t seen a ton of recently.
VP +105 (.5 units)
Cr4Zy (-1400, -1.5 maps @ -235) vs
Gorillaz-Pride (+575, +1.5 maps @ +165) 1:00 pm EST
Note that this game actually starts before the last EU game, I’ve put them slightly out of time order to keep the regions separate.
Gorillaz-Pride are a little bit better than Vira-Lata from the previous NA/SA tournament, but they are still far less talented than their competition in this tournament. Until we starts seeing -400 or worse lines I am planning on betting the map spread when they play the top teams in the region, which Cr4Zy are a part of. Cr4Zy is off to a 1-2 start in the group stage, so they shouldn’t be messing around or experimenting in this series. I like them to take it in relatively easy fashion, much like Quincy Crew did the other day.
Cr4Zy -1.5 maps -265 (2 units)
Beastcoast (-225, -1.5 maps @ +140) vs
Infamous (+160, +1.5 maps @ -195) 4:00 pm EST
These teams have somehow only met twice since the start of online only play, with Beastcoast taking both series to the tune of a 4-1 map score. They are clearly the more talented team. However, they have been very inconsistent of late, even dropping a game to Gorillaz-Pride in their series the other day. I think this game is priced correctly, and will therefore be staying away.