Welcome back! Thursday again gives us two more best of 3 series of NA/SA Dota, still in the group stage of ESL One.
8/12: 1-0 +0.80 units
YTD: 34-34 +4.07 units
Not the most exciting day for betting, as my only pick was a -375 favorite. As expected, Quincy Crew took care of business against G-Pride, although the 2nd game did give me a little scare there for a minute. Quincy Crew were well ahead the whole game, but for a moment it looked like that wouldn’t matter, as Terrorblade was super strong and single-handedly repelling QC in fights. They were able to itemize against him though, and eventually wrapped the game and series up.
Business Associates did manage to claw Game 1 away from Thunder Predator in a 58 minute back and forth slugfest of a game. Even though we would have won the map spread bet, watching this series made me glad I didn’t bet it, as Business Associates looked as sloppy as ever. If they have good matchups they look during lane, but they just look lost in the mid-game right now. Game 2 was a Thunder Predator stomp and while Game 3 was more even early, Thunder Predator took a lead around minute 22 and by minute 28 were ending the game. Even picking up a map win, this series did not give me any more confidence in BA.
Thursday’s games are:
Cr4Zy (+130, +1.5 maps @-240) vs
4 Zoomers (-180, 1.5 maps @ +170) 1:00 pm EST
These teams have met 6 times since the start of online only play. In that time 4 Zoomers are 3-2-1 (W-L-T), leading in map score, 8-6. Since Cr4Zy added HfN, which I believe is the best we’ve seen this team, the teams are 1-1-1 against each other with a map score of 3-3. Cr4Zy took a 2-0 series win in the playoffs of The Great American Rivalry just last week. Everything about this series points towards it being a coinflip.
However, the odds do not indicate a coinflip. +130 only implies Cr4Zy has a 43.5% chance to win. Therefore I think we have some value here, so I’ll be on the underdog.
Cr4Zy +130 (1 unit)
Quincy Crew (-325, -1.5 maps @ +105) vs
Thunder Predator (+225, +1.5 maps @ -145) 4:00 pm EST
These teams have met 5 times since online only play began, in that time period Quincy Crew is 4-0-1 (W-L-T). The map score is 10-2. Thunder Predator did pick up a map in each of the 2 most recent series (1 was a best of 5 the other a best of 2), but they have clearly been outclassed by Quincy Crew in their meetings. You’re probably getting tired of me mentioning this, but the one drawback with Quincy Crew is that they tend to check out during group play. However, this tournament is a bit unique in that group play knocks out half the field. Typically 6 or so teams would move on from an 8 team tournament, this one is only 4. Quincy Crew already lost a 2-0 to 4 Zoomers, and they played like they knew they needed to win against G-Pride. I expect the same from them Thursday, and they should take care of a Thunder Predator team that continues to be a bit inconsistent.
Quincy Crew -1.5 maps +105 (1 unit)