Welcome everyone, to the first official Dota betting analysis article. If you read my DOTA intro article you’ll know that I’m going to be covering Dota gambling and CS:GO DFS for The Esports Department going forward.
Most days, my focus will be on NA/EU games, but I’ll also cover some China or Southeast Asia when NA/EU are off. Today we have a 4 game slate in NA/SA. The slate is Bo2s, which can be a bit of a pain for gambling, and Bovada has very limited lines available.
In addition to the betting picks, I’m also going to include a “Hero of the Day” to help all the Dota newcomers learn the game. There are over 110 heroes in Dota, so it’s going to take a while to get through all of them. I’ll focus on heroes than are common in Pro play first, so that you can have a better understanding of what you are watching. However, for my first Hero of the Day, I’m going to do my personal favorite hero, Bloodseeker.
Bloodseeker is typically played as a Pos 1 carry, but can also be played as a Mid depending on the matchup. Bloodseeker is strong in the early to mid game, and while he can go toe-to-toe with other carries in the late game if he has a strong early game, he does not have the best scaling.
Bloodseeker has 3 active abilities and a passive ability. They are:
Bloodrage: Bloodseeker can cast this on himself, allied players, enemy players, and creeps (both allied and enemy). Whoever is affected by bloodrage does increased damage, and also receives increased damage. Also, whenever a hero affected by bloodrage gets the killing blow on an enemy creep or hero, they are healed for a percentage of their health. You get a partial heal if you are near an enemy hero that dies but you do not get the killing blow. Bloodrage is typically used in lane to help last hit and keep Bloodseeker at full health and ready to fight, and throughout that game to increase his damage. It can also be useful to cast on an enemy hero to kill them faster if it’s a 3 or 4 v 1 against that hero.
Blood Rite: Bloodseeker cast a large circle on the ground, anyone standing in the circle after ~3 seconds when the “ritual” completes is silenced (cannot cast spells) for several seconds and takes damage. Blood rite is powerful all game long. In the early game the damage is significant and in teamfights as the game progresses the size of the circle causes issues for the enemy team’s positioning, as well as being a long (6 seconds at max lvl) amount of time that any enemies hit by the spell can’t cast spells for.
Thirst: This is Bloodseeker’s passive ability, meaning he does not have to do anything (aside from leveling it up), this ability happens automatically. Whenever an enemy hero is below 75% health Bloodseeker gets a thirst bonus that increases his attack speed and movement speed. This bonuses increase until the hero reaches 25% health, where they are at their max. This also stacks per hero. Thirst can be absolutely insane during teamfights, as a fully maxed out thirst Bloodseeker flies around the map and hits incredibly quickly. Additionally, when a hero goes below 25% hp, Bloodseeker and his teammates get true sight, meaning they can see that hero wherever he or she is on the map (including when that hero is otherwise invisible).
Rupture: Bloodseeker’s ult is known as rupture. When Bloodseeker ruptures an enemy, they take damage every time they move. Essentially, if Bloodseeker casts rupture on you, you can stand still and Bloodseeker will kill you, or you can run away and die to the rupture. This also goes through magic immunity, meaning that even when under the effects of Black King Bar (an item that when you use it you become invulnerable to most spells) you can still be ruptured. Rupture is particularly strong against heroes who rely on movement as part of their kit. It is worth noting that you can teleport while affected by rupture without taking damage, and Bloodseeker does not have a stun unless he has built an item that stuns. If a lone Bloodseeker ruptures you, you can usually TP away.
Now, on to the games. Unfortunately, with 4 bo2 series and limited lines available, I don’t have a ton of picks that I like today. As a wise man once said “You don’t have to bet every single game”, so you’ll often see “No action” as my official pick for a series. The series are:
Infamous (-235 G1, -220 G2,-1.5 maps @ +105) vs
Midas Club (+170 G1, +160 G2, +1.5 maps @ -145) (2:00 pm EST)
Note that Bovada currently has the start times for this series and the next one backwards, but everywhere else I have seen his the Midas Club vs Infamous series at 2est and the Midas Club vs Cr4Zy series at 4est.
Both of these teams have struggled recently, but Infamous has the superior talent. These teams haven’t met since late April, a 2-0 Infamous victory. I like Infamous to win this series 2-0, they need a win, having started 0-2 in The Great American Rivalry, so there shouldn’t be any messing around from them today.
I’ll take the plus odds here for the 2-0 sweep rather than betting each game individually.
Infamous -1.5 maps @ +105 (1 unit)
Midas Club (+450 G1, +550 G2) vs
Cr4Zy (-850 G1, -1200 G2) (4:00 pm EST)
Cr4zy should crush this series. They are a far superior team to Midas Club. That said I have no plans to bet a -850 favorite as there is no value to be had there. Even the -0.5 spread is -450, which is still too steep for to want to bet it. Bovada doesn’t have a kill total listed, but Pinnacle has the total at 47.5. If you can get decent odds, I like the under here, as my data has these games projected at about 32-12 scorelines.
Infamous (-150 G1, -145 G2, -1.5 maps @ +175) vs
Infinity Esports (+110 G1, +105 G2, +1.5 maps @ -245) (6:00 pm EST)
Infinity Esports are a newly formed team, having only existed for a couple of months. I haven’t had a chance to watch much film on them yet, and this will be the first time these squads have met. If I had to make a pick I’d take the plus odds on Infinity for each game, but I’m going with a wait and see approach here.
Thunder Predator (-190 G1, -175 G2, -1.5 maps @ +140) vs
Beastcoast (+135 G1, +130 G2, +1.5 maps @ -190) (8:00 pm EST)
It wasn’t long ago that Beastcoast were the clear class of SA Dota. They had an impressive run at TI9 (playing under the Infamous org at the time), finishing in 7/8th, the best finish ever for an SA team. Recently, though, Beastcoast has struggled. Their style of play, making space for their carry K1/Hector farm up and eventually mega carry the game was not as suited to recent patches which favored more early game focused teams. That said, recent patches have attempted to slow the game down a bit, and this should help Beastcoast.
Thunder Predator on the other hand, has been hot lately, winning 4 of their last 6 series in 2-0 fashion, including a 2-0 win against Beastcoast back on June 21st. That said, these teams are 2-2 vs one another since the start of May, and I think this matchup is closer to 50/50 than the odds say. Give me the dog here.
Beastcoast G1 @ +135 (.5 units)
Beastcoast G2 @ +130 (.5 units)
Thanks for reading!