Hi again, we’ve got a little bit of everything on tomorrow’s slate, with the lower bracket finals and then grand finals of the OGA Dota Pit EU/CIS and a couple of Great American Rivalry games in NA.
YTD: 26-25 +8.00 units
We’ve a bit of a rough start to EU/CIS. I overestimated how much missing Kuroky would hurt Team Nigma, as I picked against them twice and both times they cruised to 2-0 victories. OG haven’t looked quite as impressive as I expected, although I think most of their issues have been in the draft. They have always had an ability to make unconventional drafts work, it’s part of what makes them so good, but they’ve been pushing the limits a little bit. Against Nigma they ran a safelane Meepo in Game one and a Faceless Void + Arc Warden combo in Game 2. Midone died 12 times on his Meepo and in Game 2 the super greedy core combo never came even close to getting online before Nigma choked the map out and ended the game. Even against VP.Prodigy they ran a Faceless Void mid in the game they lost. It seems a bit like OG is treating these games like scrims and testing out some off the wall strategies. However, in their match against FlytoMoon they toned it down a bit and got a solid 2-0 victory, and I expect them to take the rest of their games just as seriously.
On to Thursday’s games!
Alliance (+125, +1.5 maps @ -245) vs
OG (-170, -1.5 maps @ +175) 8:00 am EST, Best of 3
Since the start of April, these teams are 2-2 against each other, with OG up 5-4 in maps. As I said at the start of the tournament, you can throw that out the window a bit with OG bringing Ceb back into the roster. With Ceb back, I like OG to win this matchup, although with their tendency to draft even stranger lineups than usual so far this tournament I won’t be touching the map spread. I’ll just stick with the ML here.
OG -170 (2 units)
Vira-Lata Caramelo (+775 G1, +803 G2, +0.5 maps @ +342) vs
4 Zoomers (-1581 G1, -1665 G2, -0.5 maps @ -528) 5:00 pm EST, Best of 2
Note that these odds are from Pinnacle, this game was rescheduled from Wednesday and Bovada has yet to put up new odds.
I’ve said it a bunch of times now, but Vira-Lata doesn’t stack up to the rest of the teams in this competition. They managed to catch Infamous sleeping and steal a game, but if anything that will just mean other teams will take them a bit more seriously. They are 1-13 in map score over the course of this event. After Thursday they should be 1-17. The only question becomes, is there any value in betting 4 Zoomers at -528? -528 implies an ~84% chance that 4 Zoomers wins 2-0. I think it should be closer to 90%, but I still don’t love this bet as the returns are so little compared to the risk, I’ll be staying away here.
Vira-Lata Caramelo (+500 G1, +556 G2, +0.5 maps @ +262) vs
Thunder Predator (-859 G1, -992 G2, -0.5 maps @ -382) 7:00 pm EST, Best of 2
Odds are again from Pinnacle as this matchup is also not on the board at Bovada currently.
Everything I said above is still true for this series. Thunder Predator should take an easy 2-0. Thunder Predator is at least as good of a team as 4 Zoomers, better based on their head to head.
For some reason Vegas doesn’t see it that way, as Thunder Predator is actually less of a favorite than 4 Zoomers. -382 still implies a ~79% chance that Thunder Predator wins 2-0, and again I think that number should be closer to 90%. I think there is better value here, and will be on Thunder Predator.
Thunder Predator -0.5 maps -382 (4 units)
Let’s have a positive day tomorrow!