Welcome back, we have 4 best of 2 series from NA/SA on tap for Sunday.
Recap from 7/25:
Record: 2-0 Net: +2.18 units
Overall: 23-13 +14.85 units
Ehome rolled to a victory over Team Aster. Game 1 was a dominating performance, as Ehome closed the game out in just over 20 minutes. They took a lead during the laning stage and never looked back. Game 2 was a bit closer, the laning stage was about even. As the game transitioned into the mid-game though, Ehome started to take over. They slipped up a little bit losing a fight about 25 minutes in, but quickly rebounded and were able to close the game out in just under 40 minutes. This Ehome team has been impressive recently, while not quite getting the respect they deserve from Vegas.
Hero of the Day:
Rubick is today’s hero of the day. Played almost exclusively as a Pos 4 and occassionally Mid, Rubick’s ultimate makes him one of the most unique heroes in the game. Right now he is the single most popular hero in the pro meta over the past month, as he was already decent and received a buff in the recent patch.
Rubick’s abilities are:
Telekinesis: Rubick lifts an enemy hero for a short time and then throws them back to the ground stunning whatever the hero lands near. The hero being lifted is stunned while in the air and is not affected by the stun where he/she lands. This ability is unique in that Rubick can control where the hero lands, which is useful because it makes it harder to dodge the landing stun, can pull the lifted hero closer to the rest of Rubick’s team, or can put the hero down on different terrain, including onto cliffs with renders the hero stuck if they don’t have an ability or item they can use to get down.
Fade Bolt: Rubick shoots a bolt of energy that bounces between enemy units, damaging them and lowering their damage. This ability now also steals damage and gives it to Rubick temporarily, which was his recent buff. Already a strong laning ability, it is now even stronger. Rubick uses this ability to harass the enemy carry and make it harder for him to last hit with reduced damaged and secure ranged creep last hits, as ranged creeps are worth more gold and xp than melee. Now that it also gives him damage it just makes Rubick that much stronger early in the game. The damage reduction remains useful throughout the game, as it is percent based.
Arcane Supremacy: This is a passive ability that causes Rubick’s spells to do more damage, and negative effects (debuffs) from Rubick’s spells last longer on enemies.This pairs nicely with Rubick’s ultimate, which is:
Spell Steal: Rubick’s ult allows him to take the most recent spell cast by an enemy and use it himself. This is the true reason that Rubick is such a special hero, he can become (partially) any other hero in the game. Arcane Supremacy makes it so that when Rubick steals a spell, his version is better since it does more damage and/or last longer (think stuns). Have a hero with a potentially game changing ultimate? Better not let Rubick steal it or the fight might get turned right back around. Of the way to counter spell steal is to immediately cast another spell if you know you have one that Rubick wants to steal. This easier said than done though as a good Rubick will steal the spell he wants during the animation, leaving you no time to cast a 2nd spell.
On to the games! All series are still best of 2, as we approach the end of group play in the Great American Rivalry.
Business Associates (+235 G1, +240 G2, +0.5 maps @ +115) vs
Thunder Predator (-335 G1, -345 G2, -0.5 maps @ -155) 2:00 pm EST
These teams have met 5 times since the start of April. Over that time span, Business Associates leads the series 3-2, with a game score of 7-5. Thunder Predator did win the last time these teams met, a 2-1 victory on July 19th. Still, these odds seem way off to me. +235 implies a ~30% chance that Business Associates win. At worst this should be 55/45 Thunder Predator favored, frankly I think its more like a coin flip. Either way, Business Associates is getting absolutely no respect from Vegas here.
I’m all over Business Associates here.
Business Associates G1 +235 (1 unit)
Business Associates G2 +240 (1 unit)
Business Associates +0.5 maps +115 (1 unit)
4 Zoomers (-280 G1, -280 G2, -1.5 maps @ -125) vs
Business Associates (+195 G1, +195 G2, +1.5 maps @ -110) 4:00 pm EST
I feel like I’m taking crazy pills with these odds today. I double checked twitter and reddit to make sure make sure I wasn’t missing someone leaving the team or something, and I haven’t been able to find anything. Business Associates appears to just be straight up disrespected by Vegas today.
These teams have somehow only met twice since April, even with all the Dota being played. Both meetings have relatively recent though (June 24th and July 17th, so that’s at least good). The matchup is tied at 1-1, with 4 Zoomers up 3-2 in map score. This is another matchup that is very close to 50/50 on paper, yet the +195 odds imply Business Associates has a ~34% chance of winning. I’m right back on BA in this spot too.
Business Associates G1 +195 (1 unit)
Business Associates G2 +195 (1 unit)
Business Associates +1.5 maps -110 (1 unit)
Quincy Crew (-475 G1, -575 G2, -1.5 maps @ -240) vs
Infamous (+295 G1, +355 G2, +1.5 maps @ +175) 6:00 pm EST
Somewhat surprisingly, this will be the first time Quincy Crew and Infamous have met since April. On paper it’s a matchup Quincy Crew should dominate. That said, they’ve shown an ability to lose to anyone lately (see their match against Infinity Esports), so I won’t be touching this matchup at odds this steep.
Quincy Crew (-170 G1, -165 G2, -1.5 maps @ +145) vs
Beastcoast (+125 G1, +120 G2, +1.5 maps @ -200) 8:00 pm EST
Quincy Crew are 3-1 vs Beastcoast since the start of April, with a game score of 6-3. People of course will remember the 2-0 win for Beastcoast back on July 16th, but even in that series Quincy Crew had a fairly sizable lead in both games before throwing. That has become a theme recently with Quincy Crew, as they’ve blown quite a few leads in recent games. It’s a bit hard to tell whether it’s simply a lack of focus, without EG in the mix Quincy Crew should be much better than all of these teams and I’m sure they know it, or if there’s a bigger flaw somewhere in their shot-calling.
Even with the concerns, I think Quincy Crew should be favored by a bit more here. It’s not a huge difference though, I think they should win 67-70 percent of the time and -170 implies 63%, so I’m only going to take a small shot on the map spread here.
Quincy Crew -1.5 maps +145 (.5 units)