No NA Dota until Sunday, so it’s just a quick 2 game Chinese slate tonight! There is actually a 3rd game but it depends on the winner of the PSG.LGD/Vici series so we obviously can’t write it up. If I’m awake I may tweet a pick out if there’s something I like, you can find me @Tophdfs
Recap from 7/24:
Record: 4-2 Net: +5.55 units
Overall: 21-13 +12.67 units
What a day. We started off the morning with an Ehome win in 3 games over CDEC. Game 1 was an absolutely absurd lineup out of Ehome. Techies and Broodmother? Gross. They got the win though. After a Game 2 loss they proceeded to stomp Game 3, dominating across the map until CDEC finally called it quits. This series should have been 50/50, Ehome was mispriced.
Speaking of mispriced, we also got a 2-0 victory for 4 Zoomers, which net us a whopping +5.35 units. Game 1 was incredibly lucky, as Quincy Crew blew a 20k gold lead. That almost never happens. It’s not quite Patriots 28-3 comeback territory, more like Chiefs 24-0 (in the 2nd quarter not late 3rd) comeback vs the Texans. Game 2 however, was a much more deserving win, as 4 Zoomers was able to control the Game from minute ~15 on and closed it out in just over 25 minutes. I’m not sure what Vegas was thinking having this line so lopsided, but I sure am happy they did.
Game 1 of Business Associates vs Quincy Crew looked to be a pretty solid game for Quincy Crew, then they almost threw again in a fight in BA’s base. Quincy Crew were incredibly sloppy all day, and honestly probably aren’t taking these games all that seriously. That’s the only explanation I can think of after they just dominated OGA Dota Pit (after a 1st round loss) to turn around literally days later and struggle so mightily. Game 2 Quincy Crew came out and dominated early. So much so that I’m writing this up as a loss currently before the game is actually done. Like I said, I don’t trust Business Associates like I do 4 Zoomers, which is why we sized these bets smaller.
All in all, this was a great day!
Hero of the Day:
I’m in a bit of a time crunch as I write this tonight, so no hero of the day today. By the way, if anyone sees a hero while they’re watching and wants him or her featured, feel free to hit me up on twitter! Right now I’m basically just picking a mix of heroes that are popular in the pro meta and heroes I like.
Tonight we have a 2nd round matchup in the lower bracket (LGD vs VG) and the upper bracket finals (Ehome vs Team Aster). Both series are best of 3. Let’s take a look!
PSG.LGD (-110, +1.5 maps @ -325) vs
Vici Gaming (-125, -1.5 maps @ +225) 1:00 am EST
These teams have met 7 times since the beginning of April. In that time, PSG.LGD leads the series 4-3. The game score is 9-8 also in favor of LGD. LGD are 6-4 in their last 10 series (1-1 vs VG in that span). VG are 9-1 in their last 10 (1-0 vs LGD, VG has played more games recently).
These are two of the if not the 2 best teams in China. They tied at a 7-2 record during the regular season of DPL-CDA league (Vici got first by virtue of a better game score). It’s shocking to see them matching up in the lower bracket this early, as both lost as favorites in the opening round of the playoffs. Now it’s win or go home.
I think this matchup is truly a tossup, and it is priced accordingly. Since both teams have negative odds, I’ll be staying away.
Team Aster (+115, +1.5 maps @ -265) vs
Ehome (-160, -1.5 maps @ +185) 4:00 am EST
This game is the upper bracket final. If you just showed me these 2 series and told me one was an upper bracket final and one was a 2nd round lower bracket matchup I’d assume they were the opposite, but here we are. These teams have met 5 times since the start of April, Ehome is up 4-1 in series, with a game score of 9-3.
Team Aster come in 5-5 in their last 10, however they are hot, winning 3 or their last 4. The lone loss in that span…a 2-0 defeat to, you guessed it, Ehome.
Ehome are also 5-5 in their last 10 and 3-1 in their last 4 (their loss is a 2-1 to RNG).
Team Aster’s former stars have reclaimed a bit of their old glory of late, but make no mistake they are not a team to fear. This matchup should be about 70/30 Ehome favored, yet the odds only imply a ~62% chance they win, there’s some value to be had here.
Ehome -160 (2 units)
Ehome -1.5 maps @ +185 (.5 units)
That’s it for tonight! Let’s have another winning day!