4 more NA Dota games are on tap for the 24th!

Recap from 7/23:

Record: 2-0 Net: +2.65 units

Overall: 17-11 +7.12 units

As it turns out, there were actually NA games on the 23rd. That’s on me for trusting Bovada, they simply didn’t have them up (but did have lines up for the 24th) and I didn’t see until it was too late. I’m not too upset as our CDEC bet paid off nicely overnight, but I’ll be more diligent in the future.

As I mentioned, CDEC was able to 2-0 RNG, giving us both the straight up win and the -1.5 maps spread. Game 1 was loooong, taking over 73 minutes, and Game 2 also took over 45 minutes. However, CDEC was in control for the most part of both games, taking and building massive gold leads in both.

Hero of the Day:

Shadow Shaman is today’s hero of the day. He’s not popular currently in the pro meta, but he is one of my favorite heroes to play. He is typically played as a Position 4 or 5 (support) in the pro game.

Shadow Shaman offers excellent crowd control (CC) and pushing ability, making him useful throughout the game. His abilities are:

Ether Shock: Shadow Shaman shocks several (7 at max level) enemy units, damaging them. This spell is Shadow Shaman’s “nuke”. Early in the game it’s a significant amount of damage, which helps in late. Later on in the game, the damage isn’t all that great in teamfights on enemy heroes, but it remains strong against creeps. Shadow Shaman can quickly push waves with Ether Shock, which is helpful in the mid to late game.

Hex: Shadow Shaman turns a target into a tiny little chicken for several seconds. During that time the hexed target cannot do anything but move very slowly. At max level this lasts for 3.5 seconds on a 13 second cooldown, so Shadow Shaman can get off several in most teamfights as long as he’s alive.

Shackles: Shadow Shaman channels magic shackles on an enemy, stunning them and holding them in place. This ability is great for holding heroes that are out of position during laning, and for catching heroes that are alone later on in the game. Shadow Shaman must remain channeling the spell for the shackles to last, so it can be hard to get off a full duration, 5 seconds, shackle during teamfights, since any stuns will interrupt the channeling. However, 5 seconds is a very long stun, so if Shadow Shaman is able to get off a full duration shackle that target is usually dead.

Mass Serpent Wards: Shadow Shaman casts a circle of snakes that attack automatically or at whatever Shadow Shaman tells them to. There are 10 wards that all take 2 attacks each to destroy. They do decent damage so this be a powerful ability during teamfights, as enemies near the wards will be hit pretty hard. However, the enemy can simply move away from the wards unless they are stunned. The true power of Mass Serpent Wards comes from pushing buildings. Dropping wards near an enemy tower or barracks usually means that structure is going to be destroyed, and it can be destroyed with low risk to Shadow Shaman’s team since they can hang further back while the wards do the work.

On to the slate!

 

We have 4 more Bo2 series in North America on Friday!

Thunder Predator (-500 G1, -950 G2, -1.5 maps @ -325) vs

Vira-Lata Caramelo (+290 G1, +425 G2, +1.5 maps @ +205) 2:00 pm EST

Note that this game is currently off the board on Bovada, the odds are what they were before it came off the board. If they change drastically when the game is re-added, I’ll update accordingly.

These teams haven’t met this year, as this is the first time Vira-Lata has made it to a T1 event. Vira-Lata finally managed to win their first game Wednesday against Infamous, and while it did cost us a bet, I’m happy for them as a team. However, I do not think it’s going to help them at all this series, if anything Thunder Predator might take the series a little more seriously now. Thunder Predator should roll here. As long as this line stays at -400 or lower I think there’s value to be had.

My Pick:

Thunder Predator -1.5 maps @ -325 (3 units)

 

Vira-Lata Caramelo (+425 G1, +650 G2, +0.5 maps @ +315) vs

Cr4zy (-800 G1, -1600 G2, -0.5 maps @ -500) 4:00 pm EST

It’s going to be a long day for Vira-Lata on Friday. If anything this line shows how we are getting value in the Thunder Predator series (hopefully, considering they took it off the board we may not anymore). Cr4zy and Thunder Predator are about the same skill, if anything Thunder Predator has been better recently, yet Cr4zy is favored by more. If you’re thinking “well TP is -1.5 maps and Cr4zy is only -0.5 maps” remember this is a best of 2. I assume Bovada switches between the 2 for psychological reasons, but -1.5 maps and -0.5 maps mean the same thing in a Bo2 series. The only way to win either bet is by winning the series 2-0.

I’ll actually be staying away here, as I don’t think there’s any value with where this line is at. Vira-lata showed yesterday that they are capable of beating a team that brings there D or F game, so that risk is not worth the reward with these lines.

My Pick:

No action

 

Quincy Crew (-325 G1, -300 G2, -1.5 maps @ -135) vs

4 Zoomers (+225 G1, +210 G2, +1.5 maps @ Even) 6:00 pm EST

I was a bit surprised when I saw how lopsided this line was. The recent history does favor Quincy Crew, they are 3-2-1 (W-L-T) vs 4 Zoomers since late April, with a game score of 10-8. It is worth noting that the last 3 matchups have all gone in favor of Quincy Crew (2-0, 3-2, 2-0). Still, a 10-8 game score does not sound like 4 Zoomers should be +225 (implying a ~31% chance to win). Quincy Crew also dropped a game to Infinity Wednesday, and Midas Club on Thursday. Those are not teams they should be dropping games to.

Long story short, I think this game is pretty mispriced. It should be 60/40 at worst yet 4 Zoomers are priced with implied odds well below that. I’m all over 4 Zoomers here.

My Picks:

4 Zoomers G1 +225 (1 unit)

4 Zoomers G2 +210 (1 unit)

4 Zoomers +1.5 @ Even (1 unit)

 

Business Associates (+225 G1, +220 G2, +0.5 maps @ Even) vs

Quincy Crew (-325 G1, -315 G2, -0.5 maps @ -140) 8:00 pm EST

This series has almost exactly the same odds as the previous Quincy Crew series. The history here is a bit better for Quincy Crew, they are 3-0-1 against Business Associates with a map score of 7-3. I think 4 Zoomers are a slightly better and more consistent team than Business Associates, but I again think these odds are too far in favor of Quincy Crew. I’ll be making smaller bets, but I’m on Business Associates in this series.

My Picks:

Business Associates G1 +225 (.5 units)

Business Associates G2 +220 (.5 units)

Bonus Chinese Pick

Ehome (+120) vs

CDEC (-165) 4:00 am EST

CDEC just won us a bunch of money yesterday, so naturally I’m going to bet against them today. These teams have met 6 times since the beginning of May, the series score is 3-3. The game score is 9-7 in favor of Ehome. The last 2 meetings, including one on July 11th in the middle of CDEC’s “hot streak” have gone to Ehome. This game is a coinflip at best, I’d argue 55/45 in favor of Ehome, yet they’re priced here as underdogs. I’ll take the plus money on them here any day.

My Pick:

Ehome +120 (1 unit)

 

There’s a lot to like on the slate tomorrow, let’s win some money!

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