No NA games until the 24th, so tonight we have a nice little 2 game slate from the Chinese Pro League.
Recap from 7/22:
Record: 2-2 Net: -.78 units
Overall: 15-11 +4.47 units
Infamous started hot, completely dominating Vira-Lata in Game 1. However, that win appeared to make them overconfident, as they played incredibly sloppy in Game 2, assuming their superior players would win them the game. They got repeatedly killed early game, and even though they won a couple of fights later on, the lead Vira-Lata build up was just too much to overcome.
That game must have been a wake-up call, as they immediately turned around and beat Business Associates in Game 1 of their next series. Game 2 was an absolute bloodbath, with 79 total kills in just over 35 minutes. Unfortunately for us most of those kills went the way of BA and Infamous got their second split of the day. Since we bet bigger on the Vira-Lata series, we ended up down slightly less than a unit on the day. Overall I think we made the right bets as the loss to Vira-Lata was truly a fluke.
Hero of the Day:
Ogre Magi is today’s hero of the day. Most of our recent heroes of the day have been carries. They’re flashy, much of the game/commentary is focused on them, and they often decide who wins lategame teamfights. However, it’s time we show a little love to the supports out there, as without them, the carries would never be able to come online.
Ogre is a super tanky support. While that’s not uncommon in LoL, it is for Dota. Most supports are squishy ranged heroes, but not Ogre Magi, he’ll walk right up to you and beat you with his club. Ogre is strong in lane, able to bully enemy carries out of lane, and remains relevant into the lategame, with his stuns, and buffs.
Ogre’s abilities are:
Fireblast: Ogre blasts a target with fire, stunning them and dealing damage. This ability is great all game long. A single cast of it isn’t a super long stun or a ton of damage, but when we get to his ult you’ll see why this ability can be powerful.
Ignite: Ogre sets your target and a random 2nd enemy unit dealing damage over time and slowing the enemy. Ignite is super annoying in lane, as it does a significant amount of damage and makes it difficult for enemies to escape with the slow. Later on the slow becomes more useful that the damage, but slowing down the enemy is always useful in Dota.
Bloodlust: Ogre sends a friendly unit (or himself) into a craze, increasing their movement and attack speed. This ability is awesome for right click carries. It helps them stay on top of their target’s with increased movement speed, and kill them faster with increased attack speed. The cooldown is short enough that Ogre can keep at least 1 ally permanently bloodlusted.
Multicast: Ogre Magi’s ult is a passive that gives all of his spells a chance to be cast multiple times. That’s right instead of just one occurrence of each spell, Ogre can cast the same spell up to 4 times in a row (with only the mana cost of casting once). So now that fireball that I said doesn’t stun for that long, suddenly the enemy is stunned for over 3 seconds and taking nearly 2,000 damage (before magic resistance, it ends up as far less actual damage). Suddenly the whole enemy team is taking damage over time (cancels blink daggers) and are slowed. Ogre can also bloodlust essentially his whole team at once with this ability. Now, the downside is that it’s random. Ogre might cast his spell once, twice, thrice, or 4 times, and there’s no way of telling beforehand. The randomness can win a fight if you get lucky, or lose it if you get unlucky.
On to tonight’s games.
PSG.LGD (-230, -1.5 maps @ +140) vs
Ehome (+165, +1.5 maps @ -190) 1:00 am EST
Since the start of May, these teams have met 4 times. LGD is 3-1 with a game score of 6-2 over those 4 games, having most recently won 2-0 on July 3rd. The lone loss was a 2-0 defeat on July 2nd.
Overall, LGD is 6-4 in their last 10 matches. They are considered by most to be the best team in China, no small feat given how competitive the region is. They have been scuffling a bit of late, finishing in 4th and 7/8th in their last 2 events (out of 8 in both), but prior to that had come in 1st or 2nd in 4 straight events. They’ve been off since July 9th so we’ll see if they’ve been able to clean up some of their mistakes in that time.
Ehome are 4-6 in their last 10, and are generally considered a middle of the road team within China. In the 10 tournaments they’ve played in this year (all China-only) they’ve finished better than 3rd only once. They actually won Season 1 of the DPL-CDA league. Aside from the games being spread out across multiple weeks there’s nothing about the format of the event that is different from normal tournaments, so I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance from them.
With all that said, the +165 odds are giving Ehome about a 38% chance to win the series tonight. I think that number might even be too high, so I won’t be going there. By that same token, LGD’s -230 odd’s imply they’ll win about 70% of the time, which I think is about right. You could take a shot on the -1.5 @ +140 here, all of the recent series have been sweeps one way or the other, but I’ll be staying away myself.
CDEC Gaming (-190, -1.5 maps @ +165) vs
Royal Never Give Up (+135, +1.5 maps @ -230) 4:00 am EST
These teams have met 6 times since the start of may, with CDEC up 4-2 in series wins (3-0 in July alone). The game score is 10-6 in favor of CDEC.
CDEC are 6-4 in their last 10 games, and are coming off of a victory in the recent OGA Dota Pit China. Prior to that, though, they hadn’t come in better than 4th in any T1 Chinese event this year. They do however, have Ame, who was LGD’s star carry while they were the clearcut best team in China (left the team because of alleged personality conflicts, not because he was no longer good enough). It remains to be seem if the rest of the team is talented enough to keep them in the top tier of Chinese Dota or if this was a flash in the pan.
RNG are 4-6 in their last 10 matches, and haven’t finished above 3rd in a tournament since the beginning of April, when they won ESL One Online China. They have notably finished exactly 3rd in their last 4 tournaments, so it’s not like they’re bottom feeders. However, it is worth noting that they just traded their Mid and Position 4 with Sparking Arrow Gaming on July 10th. The new version of the team has gone 2-3 so far. It’s likely that the players are a downgrade from a skill perspective, as Sparking Arrow Gaming came out of relatively nowhere to take the league by storm a few months back, but recently had been struggling. That to me indicates that they had been “figured out” to an extent, and didn’t have the raw talent to continue to compete.
With CDEC’s improved play, the history between the 2 teams, and RNG’s roster change (downgrade?) I’m going to take the favorite here.
CDEC -190 (2 units)
CDEC -1.5 maps @ +165 (1 unit)
Let’s get back into the win column tonight!